世界经济论坛-TradeTech：催化创新（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、WQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMSupportedbytheMinistryofEconomyoftheUnitedArabEmiratesandAbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentTradeTech:CatalysingInnovationINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImages,MidJoumeyIncollaborationwithIBMCorporationContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 ThepathtoTradeTech52 Regulationand

2、bsiness-to-governmentrelationships92.1 Futurepublic-privatecollaboration113 1.ogisticsinformationsharing123.1 Futurelogisticsinformation144 Tradefinance154.1 Futuretradefinance175 Supplychainsustainability185.1 Futuresustainablesupplychains196 RealizingtheTradeTechviskx20Contributors23Endnotes24Disc

3、laimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEcono

4、micForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partners,orotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024TradeTech:CatalysingInnovationFore

5、wordBorgeBrendePresident,WorldEconomicForumThanibinAhmedAlZeyoudiMinisterofStateforFcweignTradeoftheUnitedArabEmiratesAhmedJasimAlZaabiChairman,AbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentGenerativeAlshockedtheworld.WhatwouldTradeTechneedtodotosimilarlygrabtheworld,sattention?Howaboutifitdecidedwhattotra

6、de?Howtotrade?Withwhom?Whatiftechnologyautonomouslyfinancedthattrade?Manufacturedproductsandmovedthemitself?Anddidsofaster,quicker,andmorest-effectivethaneverbefore?Thatisnotthefuture.Itisthepresent.Yettradestillhasoneftinthepast.Robotsaredoingpaperwork.Dronesneedrubberstamps.TheTradeTechinitiativei

7、saboutsteppingbothfeetintothefuture.Humancreativityisneeded.Tradeisglobalbutisalsofortheindividual.Envelopingtradeinaseaofinformationswellsatidalchangeinenvironmentalandsocialperformance,allalongthesupplychain.Masteringtradeinformationgeneratesunprecedentedefficiencyandaccuracyandevenuncannypredicti

8、vepower.Trade-as-a-servicedemocratisestrade.TheUnitedArabEmirates,asteepedinambitionandnon-stopinnovationcountry,hasbeenchosenasthedynamichubforthisendeavour.Buttheeffortisglobal-tradesfutureevolutiondemandsasenseofcollaboration,commonownership,andjointendeavourfromthefurthestreachesoftheglobe.Trade

9、rsandtechnologists,investorsandlogisticians,policymakers,andentrepreneurs-allarecomingtogethertohurtlethetradeecosystemintoanewera.Joinus!ExecutivesummaryFutureTradeTechcouldlinkeconomiesmoreefficiently,sustainablyandinclusively.TheTradeTechGlobalinitiativestrivestorevolutionizetradebyleveraginginno

10、vativetechnologiestostreamlinetradeprocessesandfosteramoreefficient,inclusive,sustainableandequitabletradingecosystem.Realizingthisvisionismoreeasilysaidthandone.Alongtheglobaltradevaluechain,numerouscountries,mpaniesandorganizationscollaborateintheproductionanddistributionofasinglegoodorservice.The

11、complexwebsofinteractionsinvolvedinglobaltradecomplicateeffortstooptimizethesystemsoperation.Whensupplychainparticipantstrytomaximizeonlytheirownself-interest,theoutcomeisfrequentlySuboptimalandcanleadtosignificantinefficienciesandmissedcollectivegoals.Someofthemostpromisinginnovationsofrecentyears-

12、distributedledgertechnology,robotics,artificialintelligence,machinelearning,automationandtheinternetofthings(IoT),forexample-offerstep-changeopportunitiesforglobaltrade.Thetransformativepotentialofthesetechnologiescannotberealized,however,unlessdiversemembersofthetradeecosystemcollaborateontheirdepl

13、oyment.ThisdocumentdoesnotpresentalengthylistofexamplesofTradeTechdeploymentorscenariosforfuturedevelopment.Rather,itncentratesonhowtoaccelerateecosystemdevelopment.TheTradeTechGlobalinitiativearticulatesavisionforhowdiverseinterestsinthetradecommunitycanworktogether-sharingcosts,hedgingrisksanddire

14、ctingsubstantialinvestments-toachievetechnologicaltransformation.Itfillsagapinglobalcollaborationbylinkingentrepreneursandinvestorswithregulatorsandestablishedindustryleaders,fosteringopendialogueandengagement.Theinitiativefocusesinitiallyonfourareasseenasripefortransformation:logistics,tradefinance

15、,carbonreductionandtradecompliance.Multistakeholderdialogueonthesetopicshasgeneratedthreebasictakeaways:- Takeaway1:Commercialactorswillneedtofindwaystocollaboratetoovercomenetworkbarriersandfirst-movercosts.- Takeaway2:Enablingregulationsandproactivegovernanceareessentialtofacilitatingtheexchangeof

16、informationandcreatinganenvironmentoftrust.- Takeaway3:Catalyticcollaborationsandpilotprojectsareneededatmultiplestagesoftechnologyintroductiontoacceleratetesting,demonstrationandscale-up.0ThepathtoTradeTechTradeTechbridgesthegapsthatemergeasinnovators,industriesandregulatoryagenciesrespondtotechnol

17、ogyopportunities.BTheabsenceofinformation-sharingandcollaborationpresentsabarriertopositivechange.Bridgingthegapsrequiresincubatinginnovation,leveragingcoalitionsandupdatingregulationtobuildsustainableandinclusivetrade.ThisreportarticulatestheTradeTechvisionofanewlandscapetosupporttechnologicalchang

18、eintrade.Utopiananddystopianvisionsforthefutureoftradeabound.Inonescenario,theworldisconsumedbyclimatedisastersandpoliticalupheavalasregionsfragmentintorivaltradingblocs.SupplychaindisruptionsandtradewarsthatintensifiedduringtheCOVID-19pandemicbecomenormalized,protectionismintensifiesandtheworldmiss

19、esoutonthepotentialeconomicgainsfromtrade.Inanopposingscenario-autopiantechnologicalfuture-robotlabourmovesgoodsseamlesslyacrossborders,withoutanyhumanintervention.Informationaboutthegoodsintransit-billsoflading,customsauthorizationsandinsurancedocuments,forexample-glideseffortlesslytoeachentitythat

20、needsit,includingowners,transporters,lendersandregulators.Theinformationistransferredthroughharmonized,integratedplatformsandsystems.Technologyprovidescost-effectivetoolstotrackCO2emissionsandincentivizesustainablesupplychains.GlobalizationthrivesandGDPsoars.Asthesecaricaturevisionsofutopiananddysto

21、pianfuturessuggest,technologyislikelytohaveexpansiveandtransformativeimpactsonglobaltradeinthecomingyears.Thepotentialupsidesofintelligenttechnologyadoptionarevast.TheInternationalChamberofCommerce(ICC)suggestedin2021thatwithinfiveyears,digitalizingthetradeecosystemcouldincreasetradeacrosstheG7bynea

22、rly$9trillion.1Humanshaveanastonishinglypoortrackrecordofpredictingthefutureoftechnology.Attemptstoimaginehowinnovationwillimpactsocietiestendtoyieldbettersciencefictionthanactionableinsights.Predictionsofthefuturetrajectoryofglobaltrade,whichspansindustriesandcontinents,areunlikelytoperformwell.Non

23、etheless,theabsenceofinformation-sharingandcollaborationpresentsabarriertopositivechange.Companiesadoptnewtechnologieswhenconvincedthattheirbenefitsoutweightheircosts.However,positiveexternalitiesfromtradetechnologiesareunlikelytobeseizedwithoutcoordination.Indeed,vestedinterestsstymieevenchangestha

24、twouldbenefitthemajorityofactorsinthesystem.TheTradeTechapproachistoencouragestakeholderstocoalesceonsharedtechnologicalvisions,solutionsandstandards.Theworlddoesnothavetheluxuryoftime-therisksofinactionaresubstantial.Inabusiness-as-sualscenario,itislikelythattechnologicaldevelopmentswillfurtherfrag

25、mentinternationalsupplychainsthroughthelackofinteroperability,creatingdisproportionatebarriersforsmalleroperatorstogaintractioninnewmarkets.FIGURE1DigitalizationconvoyJourneytodigitalmaturitytEcosystemparticipantssuchascarriers,ports,customs,freightforwarders,shippers,banksandtheirdigitalchallengers

26、,-CommunicationrangeOverlappingcircles=participantsareconnectedConnectedRiskofbeingdisconnectedDisnnectedIfanecosystempartner(e.g.start-up)goestoofast,theconnectionwiththerestoftheecosystemwillbreak.Inisolation,thisplayerwillthenloserelevanceorpivottootherindustries.Therateatwhichtheselargeandkeypla

27、yersdigitalizewilldeterminehowfastthetotalesystemcanachievedigitalmaturity.Actorsthatdonothavetheinfrastructureorcapitaltokeepup,suchasasmallandmedium-sizedenterprise(SME)inadevelopingntry,willlikelybeleftbehind.Source:WorldEconomicForumTradeTechseeksafutureoftradethatisaccessibleandtransparentanden

28、ablesopportunitiesfordiverseplayers.AnvoyanalogyoftheTradeTechGlobalinitiativewouldshowslowerorweakerparticipantsintheecosystembeingencouragedandsupportedtocatchup,whilesharedsignalsandintelligencehelpmarketdevelopment.Notallmembersofthetradeecosystemwillinnovateandadaptatthesamespeed,ofcourse.Infac

29、t,asynchronousdevelopmentisagoodthing:differenttimescalesallowsmaller,nimbleroperatorstompete,pilotingandfine-tuningtechnologicalapproachesbeforeinnovationsaredeployedatlargerscales.However,themodelrecognizesthatvisionaryinnovationsoftenneedtoconnecttoalargerecosystem.Whileastart-upcanpioneerabrilli

30、anttechnologicalbreakthrough,itsinnovationsaremostimpactfulwhenabletoscalethroughlinkstootherplayers.Improvingtradelinksbetweendevelopedanddevelopingmarketsandindustryparticipantsisapriorityfortheinitiative-notleastbecauseofthegrowingdiversificationofglobaltrade.Smallbusinessesindevelopingcountries,

31、aswellastheirgovernmentadministrations,oftenlackthenecessaryinfrastructureandacsstocapitaltofullyembracetechnologicalinnovation.HowcanTradeTechacceleratethebenefitsoftechnologicaladaptationforallmembersofthetradeecosystem?Whatstepsareneededtopromoteinnovationbyandforsmall-andmedium-sizedbusinesses?T

32、hereisnodearthofentrepreneurialactivity.Numerousprojectshavebeenlaunchedinrecentyearstosupporttheexchangeofshippingdata,forexample,orimprovevisibilityinsupplychains.However,manyhavefounderedinascepticalandmpetitiveindustry.TheTradeTechinitiativefollowsadifferentmodel.Itdoesnotproposespecificsolution

33、sitselfbutseekstosustainasupportiveecosystemandhelpinnovatorsgrowcriticalscaleacrossindustriesandgeographies.TheevolutionofTradeTechisprogressingtowardsthreehorizons.2Thefirsthorizondelineateslow-riskinitiativestohighlightpotential,leverageexistingtechnologyandhelpdevelopingmarketsandslowerindustryp

34、layerstakethebasicdigitalizationstepstounlockfurtherprogress.Thesecondhorizonaddressestheneedtoscalecoalitionsandaddressgovernmentalandintergovernmentallevers.Thethirdhorizonfocusesonprojectsthatrequiregreaterinvestmentandsynchronization.TheTradeTechinitiativehasfocuseditsinitialwork,reflectedinpart

35、inthisreport,onthefirsthorizon.Thisworkhasprioritizedcreatinganimpartialplatformformembersofthetradeandtechnologycommunitiestohighlightthepossibilitiesofandidentifychallengestotechnologicalrenewal.Itchampionspilotprojectstodemonstratethebenefitsofemergingtechnologies.In2024,TradeTechwillfocusondevel

36、opingHorizon2strategiestoexperimentwithinnovativetechnologyandpolicyframeworkstobegintoscaleinnovationsthatcaninformHorizon3development.FIGURE2ThreehorizonsofdigitalizationTradeTechInitiative:PavingthewayforglobaldigitaltradeparticipationAchievingcompletedigitalintegrationbyleveragingstart-upsandcor

37、poratesolutionsforaunifiedandtransformativetradeecosystemHighrisk-rewardHorizon3Transformwfthdisruptivetech-Innovatebusinessanddataexchangemodels-Capitalizeonnoveltyandsynergies-Tradedataplatform-Sustainabilityplatform-Digitalportsandcustoms-Greentradecorridors1.ong-term30%Horizon2Test&integrateemer

38、gingtech-Createsandboxtotestpotentialandcapturevalue-CuratepromisingTradeTechsolutions-EngageventurecapitalistsandfundersProofsofconceptwithcorporatepartners-Acceleratezincubatestart-upsfortheregulatorysandbox70%1.owrisk-rewardHorizon1Optimizewithexistingtech-Cultivatethoughtleadership-Bolsterawaren

39、ess-TradeTechForum-TradeTechcommunitysessions-AnnualreportShort-termImpactTypeofinnovationObjectiveTradeTechprojectexamplesTimehorizonCurrentfocusHorizon3projectswieldimmensepotentialtorevolutionizetheindustryandsustaindigitaltradeecosystemvalue.Theybuilduponthefoundationalworkofhorizons1and2.Theini

40、tiativeexecutesselectprojectsfromallhorizonssimultaneously,adaptingthefocusasneededovertime.Thetradecommunityhasanopportunitytoimagineaworldwheretradefacilitateshumanwell-being,inclusivityandsustainability.Thisvisionisnotjustaboutharmonizingandacceleratingtheuptakeofnewtechnologies-itisaboutimaginin

41、gandplanningcollectivelyhowtousenewtoolsandplatformstobroadenaccesstoglobaltrade,whichcanenablegreaterprosperityforcommunitiesaroundtheworld.Thebarrierstooperationalizingthesechangesarevast.Theglobaltradeecosystemincludesdiverseplayers-from1.atinAmericancustomsofficialstoAfricanagriculturalexporters

42、tomultinationalbanks-andtheirneedsandchallengesrelatedtotechnologyrangensiderably.TradeTechseeksafutureoftradethatisaccessible,transparentandopportunity-enablingforthesediverseplayers.Insomecases,TradeTechcallsonsophisticatednewtechnologiessuchasdistributed-ledgerplatforms.Inothercases,itinvolveshar

43、nessingmorefoundationaltechnology,suchasbymakingregulatorymodificationstopermitdigitaldocuments.Reforminglegalcodesfordatastoragemightnotseemasdazzlinglyfuturisticasautomatingwarehousesorusingartificialintelligence(AI)tomanagesupplychains.YetbroadlydeployingbasicTradeTechtoolsisimportantinbuildingaj

44、ustandsustainabletradeecosystem.CASESTUDY1TheGlobalAllianceforTradeFacilitationePhytoroll-outPhytosanitarycertificatesareofficialdocumentstoconfirmthatshipmentsofplantsandplantproductsbeingtradedinternationallyarefreeofpestsanddiseasesandthereforesafetoimport.Untilrecently,thesecertificateswerealway

45、sphysicalpaperdocumentsthatweretransferredbetweendifferentpartiesbypost,courierorotherphysicalmeans.Thesepapercertificatescantakedaystoobtainandarepronetoerrors,lossandcounterfeiting.Thisslowsdowntradeand,atworst,resultsinspoiledgoods,additionaldemurragechargesandfrustratedcustomersandgovernments.Su

46、rveys,interviewsanddialoguewithseveralhundredpractitionersfromtheTradeTechcommunityhaverevealedtheinitialprioritiesTheePhytoSolution,developedbytheInternationalPlantProtectionConvention,allowscountriestoelectronicallyexchangeelectronicPhytosanitarycertificates(ePhytos)witheachotherthroughacentralhub

47、,quickly,accuratelyandatlowcost.Theriskofloss,damageorfraudtothecertificateisgreatlyreduced,asistheadministrativeburdenonbothborderagenciesandbusinesses.TheGlobalAllianceforTradeFacilitationhelpsdevelopingcountriesintroducethesystem.Thellaborativenatureoftheprojectalsopavesthewayforcountriestoexchan

48、geothertypesofdatawithtradingpartners.regardingTradeTechneedsandchallengesuponwhichthisreportisbased.FIGURE3InitialTradeTechGlobalinitiativeprioritiesNeedsChallengesRegulationandbusiness-to-governmentrelationshipsFutureTradeTechcouldlinkeconomiesmoreefficiently,sustainablyandinclusively.ATheglobaltradecommunityneedstoengageinforward-lookingdialog