世界经济论坛-一亿农民：可持续转型融资的突破性模式（英）-2024.1.docx

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1、IncollaborationwithWeR1.)Bain&CompanyECONOMICFRU100MillionFarmers:BreakthroughModelsforFinancingaSustainabilityTransitionINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 NavigatingthetransitiontosustainablefoodPrOdUCtiOn61.1 Theneedforafastertransition71.2 Barrierstofast

2、eradoptionbyfarmers101.3 Thefinancingandcollaborationchallenges122 Breakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaborationtosupportfarmers142.1 Anillustrationofabreakthroughmodelforfinancingandcollaboration152.2 Innovativeexistingprogrammes202.3 Gapsinexistingprogrammes233 Roadmaptodriveastep-changeinsustain

3、ablefoodproduction26Appendix31Contributors33Endnotes35DisclaimerThisdumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoser

4、esultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers.Partnersorotherstakeholders.2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerdig,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrieval

5、system.January2024100MillionFarmers:BreakthroughModelsforFinancingaSustainabilityTransitionForewordTaniaStraussHead,FoodandWaterWorldEnomicForumVikkiTamHead,GlobalSocialImpactPractice;FoodSystems1.eadBain&CompanyThereisaleadershipimperativetourgentlyandthoughtfullyreshapehowweproduceandconsumefoodto

6、makeourfoodsystemsmoresustainableandresilient.Therequisitedimate-smartandnature-positiveproductionpractices,technologiesandinputsareincreasinglywellunderstood.Whatwemustaddresstogetherishowtosupportproducercommunitiesandvaluechainstomeaningfullyaccelerateandsustaintheadoptionoftheseproductionchanges

7、.FasteradoptionwilldriveprogressontheParisAgreements2030globalclimategoals,possiblyaheadofanyothersector,andalleviatethestressesononeofourmostscarceresources-water.Individualfarmersfacemanybarriers-particularlyeconomicrisks-whenadoptingmoresustainableproductionpractices,technologiesandinputs.Thisrep

8、ortseekstoacceleratethetransitionbyproposingaclearroadmapformoreeffectivecollectiveaction.Crucially,successfultransformationrequiresamajorbstofdiversifiedcapitalandbreakthroughmodelsoffinancingandcollaborationtosupportfarmers.Manyactors(publicandprivate,withinfoodvaluechainsandbeyond)haveessentialro

9、lestoplayinprovidingthatcapitalanddeployingiteffectively.Usingregenerativeagricultureasanexample-acriticalpartofthetransitiontosustainablefoodsystemsinitsownright-thereportproposesamodelandroadmapformoreeffectivecoordinationamongtheseactors.Themodelsupportsfarmersbyprovidingaflexiblesetoffinancialan

10、dnon-financialservicesandenablesabroadsetofactorstosharetherisksandrewardsofregenerativeagriculture.Thisreportpresentsaroadmapfornavigatingthesetransitionchallenges.Ittakesinspirationfrommanypromisingexistingprogrammesthatarealreadydeliveringpositiveresults.Itbuildsonalargeandgrowingbodyofexistingre

11、searchandthoughtleadership,includingGreenReturns:UnleashingthePowerofFinanceforSustainableFoodSystems.Itdrawsontheexperienceofmanypractitionersinthepublic,privateandnon-profitsectors.WewouldespeciallyliketothankthemembersoftheWorldEnomicForumCEOAllianceforFood,WaterandHealthandthentributorstothe100M

12、illionFarmersFinanceTaskForcefortheirknowledgeandleadership.Thisreportwillbepresentedtoleadersinthebusiness,governmentandsocialsectorsattheWorldEconomicForumAnnualMeetinginDavos1Switzerland,inJanuary2024.Alliancemembersintendtobeginimplementingthemodeldescribedinthisreport,startingwithoneormorepilot

13、sin2024.Thisimplementationispartofthe100MillionFarmersplatform,whichacceleratessustainableagri-foodpracticesandsupportsprivateandpublicsectorleadersincollectiveactioneffortsthatpositionfoodandfarmersascentralpillarsoftheglobalclimateandnatureagenda.ExecutivesummaryAbreakthroughmodeloffinancingandcol

14、laborationsupportingfarmerscanspeedupthetransitiontosustainablefoodproduction.Globalfoodsystemsneedtoshiftrapidlytomoresustainableformsofproductionaspartofbroaderfoodsystemtransformationefforts.2Foodsystemsaccountedformorethan30%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsin2020,3over80%oftropicaldeforestation4an

15、dbiodiversityloss5and70%ofglobalfreshwaterwithdrawals,oftenfromalready-stressedriverbasinsandgroundwaterreserves.6Theproductionchanges-practices,technologiesandinputs-requiredtoimprovetheclimate,waterandnaturefootprintofthefoodsystem,improveresilienceandhelprestoretheplanetareincreasinglywellunderst

16、ood.Thekeyquestionishowtomaketheadoptionoftheseproductionchangeshappenatthescaleandpacerequiredtomeetglobalgoalsonclimate,water,natureandfoodsecurity.Attheheartofthischallengearethebarrierstoadoption-particularlyeconomicbarriers,inadditiontotechnicalandsocialchallenges-thatfarmersface.Adoptingnewfar

17、mingapproachesfrequentlyrequiresnewinputs,equipmentandtechnologies.Followingadoption,farmyieldsandprofitscanoftengetworsebeforetheygetbetter.Currentfinancingsystemsandmodelsdonotsufficientlyaddressthesebarriers.Arapidandlarge-scaletransitionwillrequiremuchmorecapital.Globally,thefullfoodsystemtransf

18、ormationneedsanadditional$300billionto$350billionincapitalinvestmentannuallythrough2030.7Eventhoughthisinvestmenthasanexpectedsocietalreturnofmorethan15timesandfoodandagricultureaccountforasignificantshareofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,lessthan4%ofclimatefinancein2021and2022wasdedicatedtoagriculture

19、,forestryandotherlanduse.8However,additionalcapitalinvestmentalonewillnotbeenoughtoaccelerateprogressandsustainchange.Capitalandcapabilitiesmustalsobecoordinatedanddeployedmoreeffectivelytoaddresseconomic,technicalandsocialbarrierstofarmeradoption.Thisreportproposesabreakthroughmodelforfinancingandc

20、ollaborationtosupportfarmers,withaspecificfocusontheiradoptionofregenerativeagriculture(definedasantext-dependentsystemoffarmingpracticesthatdeliversorimprovesecosystemservicesandeconomicoutcomes):-Whatsupportdofarmersneedtoadoptregenerativepractices?Farmersshouldbeofferedaflexiblestackoffinancialan

21、dnon-financialsen/icesfromwhichtheycanselectthesupporttheyneedbasedontheirspecificntext.Financialsupportshouldincludelendingandinsuranceonfavourabletermstoreflectthattheadoptionofregenerativeagriculturecanreduceriskexposureforfinancialactors.Farmersalsoneedupfrontpaymentsorguaranteesthatcandefraythe

22、enomicriskstheyencounterduringtheearlyyearsofpractiadoption.Non-financialsupportshouldincludetechnicalassistan,dataservicesandaccesstoequipmentandinputs.-Howshouldsupportbefunded?Tosupporttheadoptionofpracticesandsustaintheirimplementation,akeysourceoffinancingshouldcomefromthemonetizationofthefullv

23、alueofallecosystemservicesdeliveredbyregenerativepractices,includingimprovedresilienceandenvironmentaloutcomeslikehealthiersoils,carbonsequestrationandgreenhousegasemissionsavoidance,reducedfreshwateruseandpollution,andenhancedbiodiversity.Inexchangeforecosystemservices,alltheactorsthatbenefitfromre

24、generativeagriculture,includingvaluechainparticipants(acrosscroprotations),lendersandinsurers,andgovernmentsshouldprovidefinancing.Tosupportinitialinvestmentsinfarmersfinancialandtechnicalsupportformultipleyearsbeforeenvironmentaloutcomesarerealized,additionalcapitalmustbeaggregatedfrompublicandpriv

25、atesources,includingcatalytic,concessionalandlong-terminvestment.-Whoshouldprovidethecapitalanddeliveryofsupport?Engagementfromabroadsetofactorsiscritical,startingwithfinancialactorsandotherswiththeadvancedfinancialcapabilitiesneededtoassess,pool,priceandmanagerisk,aggregatecapital,monetizeecosystem

26、servicesandre-engineercashflowsforfarmers.Oneormoreactorsmustalsobethecatalystforcoordination.Coordinationisneededtosimplifytheadoptionprocessforfarmers,toassemblethediversesetofactorsthathavearoletoplayandstandtobenefitfromtheadoptionofregenerativeagricultureonagivenacreandtodemonstratethevalueprop

27、ositionofbeinginvolvedtoallparticipants.Researchonover50existingregenerativeagricultureprogrammesintheUSshowsnoneincludeseverycriticalelement.However,severalinnovativefarmerfinanceprogrammesareimplementingsomeoftheseelements.Theseprogrammes,particularlythoseinvolvinggrowerassociations,providerichles

28、sonsandexcitingopportunitiesforfuturedevelopment.Fiveactionswillacceleratetheimplementationofregenerativeagricultureatscale:1. Buildout,scaleupandreplicatebreakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaboration(asarticulatedinthisreport).Buildonexistinginitiativeswiththerightfoundationalelements-particularly

29、participationfromessentialactorslikegrowerassociations-andaddthecriticalmissingelements.2. Promotetheengagementoffinancialactorsintheadoptionofregenerativeagriculture.Withtherightcapabilitiesinplace,financialservicesactorscanreducetheirriskexposureandopenupnewbusinessopportunitieswhileturbochargingr

30、egenerativeagricultureprogrammes.3. Structureprecompetitivecollaborationamongvaluechaincompaniestoaggregatedemandforenvironmentaloutcomesandimprovedfarmresilience.Developorexpandcoordinatingmechanismstoensurethatalltheecosystemservicesresultingfromregenerativeagriculturearefullyvaluedandeveryactorth

31、atbenefitsiscommittedtocontributingthroughpaymentsforenvironmentaloutcomesand,potentially,procurementarrangements.4. Establishaconsistentandsupportivepolicyandenablingenvironment.Usepolicyleverstostrengthenthebusinesscaseforprivatesectorcompanies,investorsandfarmerstoexpandtheuseofregenerativeagricu

32、lturepracticesandinvesttoprovidecatalyticcapitalforpromisingprogrammesandinnovationsandtodeveloptheagriculturalcommons(i.e.intellectualassets,humancapital,physicalinfrastructure).5. Developadatacommonsandacceleratemarketplacedevelopmentforallecosystemservices.Advancethedefinition,standardization,mea

33、surement,reporting,verificationandavailabilityofdatalinkingregenerativepracticestoeconomicoutcomesforfarmers,environmentaloutcomesandresiliencetoenablethescalingofmarketsandmechanismstofullymonetizetheecosystemservicesresultingfromregenerativeagriculture.Realprogressonthefasteradoptionofregenerative

34、agricultureandgreatersustainabilityacrossallformsofagricultureiswithinreach.Breakthroughmodelsforfinancingandcollaborationcanensurefarmersupportisdeliveredwhenandwhereitisneeded,asefficientlyandequitablyaspossible,andatthescaleandpaceneededtodrivealastingtransformation.Navigatingthetransitiontosusta

35、inablefoodproductionFinancingandcollaborationmodelsmustaddresstheeconomic,technicalandsocialbarriersfarmersfacetoacceleratesustainablefoodproduction.1.1 TheneedforafastertransitionTheworld,shighlyproductivefoodsystemsgeneratemorethanenoughfoodtofeedeveryoneontheplanet9butaccountformorethan30%ofgloba

36、lgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions10andexactasubstantialtollonnatureinmanypartsoftheworld.Abouthalfofagri-foodsystememissions(14%ofGHGemissionsin2020)comefromcropandlivestockproductionactivitieswithinthefarmgateJAdditionally,foodsystemsrepresent70%offreshwaterwithdrawalsglobally,oftenfromalready-stressedr

37、iverbasinsandgroundwaterreserves.12Changestofarmingpracticeshaveavitalroletoplayinreducingthisburden;forexample,more-sustainablefoodproductioncanreducewaterpollutionandfreshwateruseandcouldsequester9%to23%ofglobalannualGHGemissionsinsoilseachyear.13Theproductionchangesneededareincreasinglywellunders

38、toodbutprogresshasbeenslow.Attheheartofthisproblemarethemanybarriers-particularlytheeconomicrisks-thatindividualfarmersfaceinadoptingmoresustainableproductionpractices,technologiesandinputs.Addressingtheeconomicbarriersrequiresfillingamassivefinancinggap(Figure1)andchanginghowcapitalisdeployed.FIGUR

39、E1Moreinvestmentisneededtoaccelerateprogressonclimate,waterandnaturegoalsFoodandwatersystemsreceivemuchlessinvestmentthantheyneedordeserve4%15x$25-$80billionTheagriculture,forestryandotherlandusesector(asubsetofthefoodsystem)receiveslessthan4%ofoverallclimatefinanceGlobalclimateinvestmentinfoodsyste

40、msmustincreaseby15x,from$20billionto-$300-$350billionperyear,tomeettheexpectedannualcostsoftransformationoverthenextdecadeReachingthefullpotentialagronomicallyoptimal)adoptionofjusttworegenerativepractices(low/no-tillandcovercrops)intheUSrequires$25-$80billioninfinancingFoodandagricultureaccountfora

41、significantshareofhumanimpactsonclimate,waterandnature14%ofglobaldeforestationandbiodiversitylossisaresultofagriculturalproductionofglobalfreshwaterwithdrawalsareforagriculture*ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsaredrivenbyfoodandagricultureofglobalGHGemissionscomefromwithinthefarmgate,generatedbycr

42、opandlivestkproductionactivities*90%inlow-incomecountriesSources:ClimatePolicyInitiative,14InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,5WorldBank,6FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations,7Greenpeace18andWorldEconomicForumandBain&Companyanalysis.Healthysoilisthepathwaytomoresustainable,resilien

43、tandhealthierfoodsystems.Wemustworktogethertoprovidefarmerswiththetechnology,financingandsupporttheyneedtoadoptregenerativepracticesmorequickly.SveinToreHolsether,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer,YaraInternational(Changesinfarmingpracticeareoccurring,butnotquicklyenough,andsignificantlymoreinvestme

44、ntisneeded.Theadoptionofregenerativeagriculture(acontext-dependentsystemoffarmingpracticesthatdeliversorimprovesecosystemservicesandeconomicoutcomesonthebasisofbettersoilhealth;seedefinitioninFigure2)forrowcropproductionisanimportantpartofthebroadertransitiontosustainableagriculturalproductionacross

45、allcropsandlivestockandsharesthesamechallenges.1.ikethebroaderfoodsystemtransition,changesinfarmingpracticeareoccurring,butnotquicklyenough,andsignificantlymoreinvestmentisneeded.Asanexample,considertheeffortstodrivetheadoptionofregenerativeagricultureintheUS,whichisoneofthelargestandmostproductiveg

46、rowersofcorn,soyandwheatintheworld.19IntheUSalone,privatesectoractorsleadatleast50activeorplannedeffortstosupportfarmeradoption.Evenso,lessthan10%ofUSfarmerswereengagedincompany-ledregenerativeagriculturepilotsin2021andtheadoptionofregenerativepracticesremainsfarbelowfullpotential.20Take,forinstance

47、,twopracticesthathavereceivedattentionrecently:inthemostrecentofficialUSdata,farmersimplementednotill(inwhichsoilisleftundisturbed)on36%and39%ofplantedcornandsoybeanacres,21respectively,andplantedcovercropsonjust7%ofMidwesternfarmland.22Manyotherpracticesalsoremainbelowtheagronomicallyoptimallevelof

48、adoptionandthereisunmetdemandfromfarmersforsupport;forexample,anewfarmerfinanceprogrammelaunchedbytheEnvironmentalDefenseFundandFarmersBusinessNetworkin2022tosupporttheadoptionofregenerativepracticeswasquicklyOversubsaibedandwilldoubleinsizeinitssecondyear.23Astep-changeinfinancingisneeded.IntheUS,anestimated$25billionto$80billionormoreinfinancingisneededtosupportfarmerstoreachtheagronomicallyoptimallevelofadoptionofjusttwopractices-no-tillfarmingandcovercrops.TheUSrepresentedsome10%ofallgrainandoilseedharvestedacresgloballyinthe2021/20