世界经济论坛-TradeTech：催化创新（英）-2024.1.docx

WQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMSupportedbytheMinistryofEconomyoftheUnitedArabEmiratesandAbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentTradeTech:CatalysingInnovationINSIGHTREPORTJANUARY2024Images:GettyImages,MidJoumeyIncollaborationwithIBMCorporationContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 ThepathtoTradeTech52 Regulationandbsiness-to-governmentrelationships92.1 Futurepublic-privatecollaboration113 1.ogisticsinformationsharing123.1 Futurelogisticsinformation144 Tradefinance154.1 Futuretradefinance175 Supplychainsustainability185.1 Futuresustainablesupplychains196 RealizingtheTradeTechviskx20Contributors23Endnotes24DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partners,orotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January2024TradeTech:CatalysingInnovationForewordBorgeBrendePresident,WorldEconomicForumThanibinAhmedAlZeyoudiMinisterofStateforFcweignTradeoftheUnitedArabEmiratesAhmedJasimAlZaabiChairman,AbuDhabiDepartmentofEconomicDevelopmentGenerativeAlshockedtheworld.WhatwouldTradeTechneedtodotosimilarlygrabtheworld,sattention?Howaboutifitdecidedwhattotrade?Howtotrade?Withwhom?Whatiftechnologyautonomouslyfinancedthattrade?Manufacturedproductsandmovedthemitself?Anddidsofaster,quicker,andmorest-effectivethaneverbefore?Thatisnotthefuture.Itisthepresent.Yettradestillhasoneftinthepast.Robotsaredoingpaperwork.Dronesneedrubberstamps.TheTradeTechinitiativeisaboutsteppingbothfeetintothefuture.Humancreativityisneeded.Tradeisglobalbutisalsofortheindividual.Envelopingtradeinaseaofinformationswellsatidalchangeinenvironmentalandsocialperformance,allalongthesupplychain.Masteringtradeinformationgeneratesunprecedentedefficiencyandaccuracyandevenuncannypredictivepower.Trade-as-a-servicedemocratisestrade.TheUnitedArabEmirates,asteepedinambitionandnon-stopinnovationcountry,hasbeenchosenasthedynamichubforthisendeavour.Buttheeffortisglobal-trade'sfutureevolutiondemandsasenseofcollaboration,commonownership,andjointendeavourfromthefurthestreachesoftheglobe.Tradersandtechnologists,investorsandlogisticians,policymakers,andentrepreneurs-allarecomingtogethertohurtlethetradeecosystemintoanewera.Joinus!ExecutivesummaryFutureTradeTechcouldlinkeconomiesmoreefficiently,sustainablyandinclusively.TheTradeTechGlobalinitiativestrivestorevolutionizetradebyleveraginginnovativetechnologiestostreamlinetradeprocessesandfosteramoreefficient,inclusive,sustainableandequitabletradingecosystem.Realizingthisvisionismoreeasilysaidthandone.Alongtheglobaltradevaluechain,numerouscountries,mpaniesandorganizationscollaborateintheproductionanddistributionofasinglegoodorservice.Thecomplexwebsofinteractionsinvolvedinglobaltradecomplicateeffortstooptimizethesystem'soperation.Whensupplychainparticipantstrytomaximizeonlytheirownself-interest,theoutcomeisfrequentlySuboptimalandcanleadtosignificantinefficienciesandmissedcollectivegoals.Someofthemostpromisinginnovationsofrecentyears-distributedledgertechnology,robotics,artificialintelligence,machinelearning,automationandtheinternetofthings(IoT),forexample-offerstep-changeopportunitiesforglobaltrade.Thetransformativepotentialofthesetechnologiescannotberealized,however,unlessdiversemembersofthetradeecosystemcollaborateontheirdeployment.ThisdocumentdoesnotpresentalengthylistofexamplesofTradeTechdeploymentorscenariosforfuturedevelopment.Rather,itncentratesonhowtoaccelerateecosystemdevelopment.TheTradeTechGlobalinitiativearticulatesavisionforhowdiverseinterestsinthetradecommunitycanworktogether-sharingcosts,hedgingrisksanddirectingsubstantialinvestments-toachievetechnologicaltransformation.Itfillsagapinglobalcollaborationbylinkingentrepreneursandinvestorswithregulatorsandestablishedindustryleaders,fosteringopendialogueandengagement.Theinitiativefocusesinitiallyonfourareasseenasripefortransformation:logistics,tradefinance,carbonreductionandtradecompliance.Multistakeholderdialogueonthesetopicshasgeneratedthreebasictakeaways:- Takeaway1:Commercialactorswillneedtofindwaystocollaboratetoovercomenetworkbarriersandfirst-movercosts.- Takeaway2:Enablingregulationsandproactivegovernanceareessentialtofacilitatingtheexchangeofinformationandcreatinganenvironmentoftrust.- Takeaway3:Catalyticcollaborationsandpilotprojectsareneededatmultiplestagesoftechnologyintroductiontoacceleratetesting,demonstrationandscale-up.0ThepathtoTradeTechTradeTechbridgesthegapsthatemergeasinnovators,industriesandregulatoryagenciesrespondtotechnologyopportunities.BTheabsenceofinformation-sharingandcollaborationpresentsabarriertopositivechange.Bridgingthegapsrequiresincubatinginnovation,leveragingcoalitionsandupdatingregulationtobuildsustainableandinclusivetrade.ThisreportarticulatestheTradeTechvisionofanewlandscapetosupporttechnologicalchangeintrade.Utopiananddystopianvisionsforthefutureoftradeabound.Inonescenario,theworldisconsumedbyclimatedisastersandpoliticalupheavalasregionsfragmentintorivaltradingblocs.SupplychaindisruptionsandtradewarsthatintensifiedduringtheCOVID-19pandemicbecomenormalized,protectionismintensifiesandtheworldmissesoutonthepotentialeconomicgainsfromtrade.Inanopposingscenario-autopiantechnologicalfuture-robotlabourmovesgoodsseamlesslyacrossborders,withoutanyhumanintervention.Informationaboutthegoodsintransit-billsoflading,customsauthorizationsandinsurancedocuments,forexample-glideseffortlesslytoeachentitythatneedsit,includingowners,transporters,lendersandregulators.Theinformationistransferredthroughharmonized,integratedplatformsandsystems.Technologyprovidescost-effectivetoolstotrackCO2emissionsandincentivizesustainablesupplychains.GlobalizationthrivesandGDPsoars.Asthesecaricaturevisionsofutopiananddystopianfuturessuggest,technologyislikelytohaveexpansiveandtransformativeimpactsonglobaltradeinthecomingyears.Thepotentialupsidesofintelligenttechnologyadoptionarevast.TheInternationalChamberofCommerce(ICC)suggestedin2021thatwithinfiveyears,digitalizingthetradeecosystemcouldincreasetradeacrosstheG7bynearly$9trillion.1Humanshaveanastonishinglypoortrackrecordofpredictingthefutureoftechnology.Attemptstoimaginehowinnovationwillimpactsocietiestendtoyieldbettersciencefictionthanactionableinsights.Predictionsofthefuturetrajectoryofglobaltrade,whichspansindustriesandcontinents,areunlikelytoperformwell.Nonetheless,theabsenceofinformation-sharingandcollaborationpresentsabarriertopositivechange.Companiesadoptnewtechnologieswhenconvincedthattheirbenefitsoutweightheircosts.However,positiveexternalitiesfromtradetechnologiesareunlikelytobeseizedwithoutcoordination.Indeed,vestedinterestsstymieevenchangesthatwouldbenefitthemajorityofactorsinthesystem.TheTradeTechapproachistoencouragestakeholderstocoalesceonsharedtechnologicalvisions,solutionsandstandards.Theworlddoesnothavetheluxuryoftime-therisksofinactionaresubstantial.Inabusiness-as-sualscenario,itislikelythattechnologicaldevelopmentswillfurtherfragmentinternationalsupplychainsthroughthelackofinteroperability,creatingdisproportionatebarriersforsmalleroperatorstogaintractioninnewmarkets.FIGURE1DigitalizationconvoyJourneytodigitalmaturitytEcosystemparticipantssuchascarriers,ports,customs,freightforwarders,shippers,banksandtheirdigitalchallengers,-CommunicationrangeOverlappingcircles=participantsareconnectedConnectedRiskofbeingdisconnectedDisnnectedIfanecosystempartner(e.g.start-up)goestoofast,theconnectionwiththerestoftheecosystemwillbreak.Inisolation,thisplayerwillthenloserelevanceorpivottootherindustries.Therateatwhichtheselargeandkeyplayersdigitalizewilldeterminehowfastthetotalesystemcanachievedigitalmaturity.Actorsthatdonothavetheinfrastructureorcapitaltokeepup,suchasasmallandmedium-sizedenterprise(SME)inadevelopingntry,willlikelybeleftbehind.Source:WorldEconomicForumTradeTechseeksafutureoftradethatisaccessibleandtransparentandenablesopportunitiesfordiverseplayers.AnvoyanalogyoftheTradeTechGlobalinitiativewouldshowslowerorweakerparticipantsintheecosystembeingencouragedandsupportedtocatchup,whilesharedsignalsandintelligencehelpmarketdevelopment.Notallmembersofthetradeecosystemwillinnovateandadaptatthesamespeed,ofcourse.Infact,asynchronousdevelopmentisagoodthing:differenttimescalesallowsmaller,nimbleroperatorstompete,pilotingandfine-tuningtechnologicalapproachesbeforeinnovationsaredeployedatlargerscales.However,themodelrecognizesthatvisionaryinnovationsoftenneedtoconnecttoalargerecosystem.Whileastart-upcanpioneerabrillianttechnologicalbreakthrough,itsinnovationsaremostimpactfulwhenabletoscalethroughlinkstootherplayers.Improvingtradelinksbetweendevelopedanddevelopingmarketsandindustryparticipantsisapriorityfortheinitiative-notleastbecauseofthegrowingdiversificationofglobaltrade.Smallbusinessesindevelopingcountries,aswellastheirgovernmentadministrations,oftenlackthenecessaryinfrastructureandacsstocapitaltofullyembracetechnologicalinnovation.HowcanTradeTechacceleratethebenefitsoftechnologicaladaptationforallmembersofthetradeecosystem?Whatstepsareneededtopromoteinnovationbyandforsmall-andmedium-sizedbusinesses?Thereisnodearthofentrepreneurialactivity.Numerousprojectshavebeenlaunchedinrecentyearstosupporttheexchangeofshippingdata,forexample,orimprovevisibilityinsupplychains.However,manyhavefounderedinascepticalandmpetitiveindustry.TheTradeTechinitiativefollowsadifferentmodel.Itdoesnotproposespecificsolutionsitselfbutseekstosustainasupportiveecosystemandhelpinnovatorsgrowcriticalscaleacrossindustriesandgeographies.TheevolutionofTradeTechisprogressingtowardsthreehorizons.2Thefirsthorizondelineateslow-riskinitiativestohighlightpotential,leverageexistingtechnologyandhelpdevelopingmarketsandslowerindustryplayerstakethebasicdigitalizationstepstounlockfurtherprogress.Thesecondhorizonaddressestheneedtoscalecoalitionsandaddressgovernmentalandintergovernmentallevers.Thethirdhorizonfocusesonprojectsthatrequiregreaterinvestmentandsynchronization.TheTradeTechinitiativehasfocuseditsinitialwork,reflectedinpartinthisreport,onthefirsthorizon.Thisworkhasprioritizedcreatinganimpartialplatformformembersofthetradeandtechnologycommunitiestohighlightthepossibilitiesofandidentifychallengestotechnologicalrenewal.Itchampionspilotprojectstodemonstratethebenefitsofemergingtechnologies.In2024,TradeTechwillfocusondevelopingHorizon2strategiestoexperimentwithinnovativetechnologyandpolicyframeworkstobegintoscaleinnovationsthatcaninformHorizon3development.FIGURE2ThreehorizonsofdigitalizationTradeTechInitiative:PavingthewayforglobaldigitaltradeparticipationAchievingcompletedigitalintegrationbyleveragingstart-upsandcorporatesolutionsforaunifiedandtransformativetradeecosystemHighrisk-rewardHorizon3Transformwfthdisruptivetech-Innovatebusinessanddataexchangemodels-Capitalizeonnoveltyandsynergies-Tradedataplatform-Sustainabilityplatform-Digitalportsandcustoms-Greentradecorridors1.ong-term30%Horizon2Test&integrateemergingtech-Createsandboxtotestpotentialandcapturevalue-CuratepromisingTradeTechsolutions-EngageventurecapitalistsandfundersProofsofconceptwithcorporatepartners-Acceleratezincubatestart-upsfortheregulatorysandbox70%1.owrisk-rewardHorizon1Optimizewithexistingtech-Cultivatethoughtleadership-Bolsterawareness-TradeTechForum-TradeTechcommunitysessions-AnnualreportShort-termImpactTypeofinnovationObjectiveTradeTechprojectexamplesTimehorizonCurrentfocusHorizon3projectswieldimmensepotentialtorevolutionizetheindustryandsustaindigitaltradeecosystemvalue.Theybuilduponthefoundationalworkofhorizons1and2.Theinitiativeexecutesselectprojectsfromallhorizonssimultaneously,adaptingthefocusasneededovertime.Thetradecommunityhasanopportunitytoimagineaworldwheretradefacilitateshumanwell-being,inclusivityandsustainability.Thisvisionisnotjustaboutharmonizingandacceleratingtheuptakeofnewtechnologies-itisaboutimaginingandplanningcollectivelyhowtousenewtoolsandplatformstobroadenaccesstoglobaltrade,whichcanenablegreaterprosperityforcommunitiesaroundtheworld.Thebarrierstooperationalizingthesechangesarevast.Theglobaltradeecosystemincludesdiverseplayers-from1.atinAmericancustomsofficialstoAfricanagriculturalexporterstomultinationalbanks-andtheirneedsandchallengesrelatedtotechnologyrangensiderably.TradeTechseeksafutureoftradethatisaccessible,transparentandopportunity-enablingforthesediverseplayers.Insomecases,TradeTechcallsonsophisticatednewtechnologiessuchasdistributed-ledgerplatforms.Inothercases,itinvolvesharnessingmorefoundationaltechnology,suchasbymakingregulatorymodificationstopermitdigitaldocuments.Reforminglegalcodesfordatastoragemightnotseemasdazzlinglyfuturisticasautomatingwarehousesorusingartificialintelligence(AI)tomanagesupplychains.YetbroadlydeployingbasicTradeTechtoolsisimportantinbuildingajustandsustainabletradeecosystem.CASESTUDY1TheGlobalAllianceforTradeFacilitationePhytoroll-outPhytosanitarycertificatesareofficialdocumentstoconfirmthatshipmentsofplantsandplantproductsbeingtradedinternationallyarefreeofpestsanddiseasesandthereforesafetoimport.Untilrecently,thesecertificateswerealwaysphysicalpaperdocumentsthatweretransferredbetweendifferentpartiesbypost,courierorotherphysicalmeans.Thesepapercertificatescantakedaystoobtainandarepronetoerrors,lossandcounterfeiting.Thisslowsdowntradeand,atworst,resultsinspoiledgoods,additionaldemurragechargesandfrustratedcustomersandgovernments.Surveys,interviewsanddialoguewithseveralhundredpractitionersfromtheTradeTechcommunityhaverevealedtheinitialprioritiesTheePhytoSolution,developedbytheInternationalPlantProtectionConvention,allowscountriestoelectronicallyexchangeelectronicPhytosanitarycertificates(ePhytos)witheachotherthroughacentralhub,quickly,accuratelyandatlowcost.Theriskofloss,damageorfraudtothecertificateisgreatlyreduced,asistheadministrativeburdenonbothborderagenciesandbusinesses.TheGlobalAllianceforTradeFacilitationhelpsdevelopingcountriesintroducethesystem.Thellaborativenatureoftheprojectalsopavesthewayforcountriestoexchangeothertypesofdatawithtradingpartners.regardingTradeTechneedsandchallengesuponwhichthisreportisbased.FIGURE3InitialTradeTechGlobalinitiativeprioritiesNeedsChallengesRegulationandbusiness-to-governmentrelationshipsFutureTradeTechcouldlinkeconomiesmoreefficiently,sustainablyandinclusively.ATheglobaltradecommunityneedstoengageinforward-lookingdialog