世界经济论坛-净零到净负：领导者碳去除指南（英）-2021.11-18正式版.docx

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1、WHITE PAPERNOVEMBER 20 2 1In Collaboration with the Global Future Council on Net-Zero Transition and the Alliance of CEO Climate LeadersWORLDECONOMICFORUMNet-ZerotoNet-Negative:AGuideforLeadersonCarbonRemovalCoverandimages:GettyImages,UnsplashContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Intrcxjuction51 Underst

2、andcarbonremovalanditslimitations71.1 Wheretoputremovedcarbon?81.2 Wheniscarbonremoved?91.3 Howlongwillcarbonstayremoved?92 Plantoaddressfuture,presentandpastemissions103 Seeksystemicimpact11Conclusion12Annex13Acknowledgements15Contributors16Endnotes17DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomi

3、cForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEnomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorot

4、herstakeholders.2021WorldEomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.November 2021Net-ZerotoNet-Negative:AGuideforLeadersonCarbonRemovalForewordBaroness Bryony Worthi

5、ngton Co-Director, Quadrature Climate Foundation, UnitedKingdomMyles Allen Professor of Geosystem Science. Director, Oxford Net Zero, University of Oxford, United KingdomThreethingsneedtohappentolimitglobalwarmingtosafelevelsinlinewiththeParisAgreement:greenhousegasemissionsneedtobehalvedby2030;net-

6、zeroemissionsmustbeachievedby2050;andglobalemissionswillneedtobecomenet-negativeemissionsafter2050.Firstandforemost,holdingontoastableclimaterequiresadrasticreductionofemissions.Thiswillrequireaneconomictransformationthatreimagineshowweproduceanduseenergyandmostcommodities.Andyet,thatwillstillnotbee

7、nough.Asacomplementtoreductions,carbonremovalsolutionsareneeded.Notonlywillsomeemissions-forexample,inagricultureandheavyindustry-beverydifficulttoreduce,wealsoneedtodrawdowntheEarthsownemissionsresultingfromthenaturalfeedbackloopsofawarmingplanetandalsoreversethebuild-upofemissionsthathaveaccumulat

8、ed,andcontinuetoaccumulate,intheatmosphereovertime.Thispaperoffersatimelyguideforbusinessandpolicyleadersdeterminedtoacceleratethetransitiontoaneconomycompatiblewithmaintainingasafeclimate.Itdescribesthelandscapeofexistingcarbonremovalopportunities-fromnature-basedtotechnologicalandhybridsolutions-d

9、iscussestherelativemeritsandchallengesassociatedwiththese,andrecommendsasetofactionstobeginspeedinguptheirdeploymenttoday.Keyamongthesearecommittingto:learningaboutandinterrogatingtheconceptofcarbonremovalstounderstandthetrade-offs;usingremovalstoaddresscurrent,futureand,importantly,pastemissions;an

10、dseekingaleveraged,systemicimpactratherthantakingatactical,least-costapproach.TwooftheWorldEconomicForm,scommunitiescollaboratedtodevelopthispaper:theGlobalFutureCouncil(GFC)onNet-ZeroTransitionandtheAllianceofCEOClimateLeadersCarbonRemovalsClimateActionGroup.Thiscollaborationalsoproducedapresentati

11、on-fromCEOstoCEOs-summarizingthecriticalroleofcarbonremovalandhowcompaniescanuseitbothcrediblyandsmartly.Wearegratefulforthemanycontributionsfrombothofthesegroups,whichalsoyieldedaseriesofarticlespublishedontheForumsAgendablog,andinparticulartoEliMitchell-LarsonoftheOxfordNetZeroinitiativeandCarbonG

12、apforhisworkindraftingandcollatingmanydiverseperspectives.Thisdiversityhasgeneratedarobustsetofrecommendationsforleaderswhoarereadytodeliverthisimportantpieceoftheclimatepuzzle.ChristianMumenthalerGroupChiefExecutiveOfficer,SwissRe;Co-ChairoftheAllianceofCEOClimateLeaders,SwitzerlandExecutivesummary

13、Planningfortheactiveremovalofcarbondioxidefromtheatmospherecoupledwithstorage(CDR),isanintegralpartofanycomprehensivenet-zerostrategy.Thiswhitepaperisaguidefordecision-makerstosomeofthekeychallengesandopportunitiestheymustconsiderwhenengagingwithcarbonremovals.Whentouseremovals?Theuseofcarbonremoval

14、sneedstofollowthemitigationhierarchy:thefirstpriorityisalwaystoreduceoravoidemissionswherepossible.Carbonremovalisappropriateifusedforoneofthreepurposes:1. Compensatingforemissionsthatresultdirectlyfromanactorsactivitiesbutwhicharedifficultorimpossibletoreduce.2. CompensatingfortheEarthsemissionsres

15、ultingfromclimatechangeitself(andhenceindirectlyfrompastorfutureemissions)3. Foractorswithhighambitionsandstrongleadership,goingfurther-achievingnet-negativeemissionstoaddressthelegacyofpastemissions,tacklingthebuildupofcarbondioxideintheatmosphereandbeginningtorestoretheclimateHowshouldleadersengag

16、ewithremovals?Wehighlightthreekeyconsiderations:Understandcarbonremovalanditslimitations-itisessentialtoconsiderthecompleteend-to-endcarbonremovalandstoragechallenge.Carbonremovaltechniquescanbroadlybedividedintocategoriesaccordingtothemethodofremoval,andtheformofsubsequentformatofstorage,someofwhic

17、hareconsiderednature-based,engineered,orahybridofthetwo.TodeliverthecarbonremovalvolumenecessarytomeettheParisAgreement,allofthesemethodswillneedtobescaledupoverthecomingdecade.Inselectingasafecarbonremovalstrategy,leadersshouldkeepinmind:1. Wheretoputremovedcarbon?Considerthecapacityofcarbonstorage

18、optionsandhowtheyaredistributedamongtheatmosphere,geosphere(rocks),andbiosphere(marineandterrestrialplantsandsoils).Durablenet-zerostrategiesinvolvebalancingemissionsandremovalslike-for-like(pensatingforongoingfossilfuelusebyreturningcarbondioxidetothegeosphere).2. Wheniscarbonremoved?Notallremovals

19、arerealizedinstantaneously,andcaremustbetakennottoborrowfromthefuture.3. Howlongwillcarbonstayremoved?Considertheriskofreversaltotheatmosphereofstoredcarbonandanticipateaneedtotransitiontooptionsofferinggreaterpermanenceandlowerrisk.Ensurerobustongoingperformancemonitoring.Plantoaddressfuture,presen

20、tandpastemissions-ambitiouscorporateleadersseekingtodeterminethescaleofcarbonremovalrequiredbytheirbusinessesshouldprioritizeunavoidablepresentandfutureemissions,butalsobepreparedtoaddresspastemissionsbacktoanagreeddate.Seeksystemicimpact-finally,whennsideringcarbonremovaloptions,corporationsneedtor

21、eflectontheimpacttheywanttohaveandtheirlevelofambition.Leadersinbusiness,financeandpolicycanactnowtosupportawidearrayofremovalsoptions.Thisincludesbothestablishedmethodsthatarereadyforscaleplusemergingtechniqueswhereurgent,early-stagesupportwilldeliversystemic,far-reachingimpactsbeyondthedecision-ma

22、ker,sownremit.Howbesttotakeaction?Thebriefcloseswithacalltoaction,undertheoverarchingappealtouseremovalsonlytoaddressemissionsthatcannotbereducedoravoided,prioritizingemissionreductionsaboveremovalsacrossthefullvaluechain.Corporationsengagingwithcarbonremovalmust:1. Buildexpertise,seekadviceandsuppo

23、rtexistingcarbonremovalinitiatives2. Supportemissionreductionsandnaturebasedclimatesolutionsintheirownright3. Seekadiversifiedportfolioofremovalsspanningbiologicalandgeologicaloptions4. Considertheuseofremovalstocompensateforpastemissions5. Prepareforthefuture,includingpotentialliabilityforfutureemi

24、ssions6. Balanceemissionsfromhigh-durabilitysourceswithhigh-durabilitystorage7. AdvocateforambitiousclimatepoliciesIntroductionToensureasafeclimate,wemustcutcarbondioxideemissionsby50%ormoreby2030,reachnet-zeroemissionsbefore2050andstayatnet-negativeemissionsthroughoutthesecondhalfofthecentury.Thisp

25、aperfocusesoncarbondioxideremoval(CDR)anditsroleincomplementingemissionreductionsandreducingthestockofcarbonalreadyintheatmosphere.Achievingnet-zero-removingandstoringgreenhousegasemissionsatthesamerateastheyareemitted-isanimportantwaypointtowardsabsolutezero.Inquantifiableterms:tokeepwarmingbelowth

26、eParisthresholdof2,orpreferably1.50C,massiveyear-on-yearemissionreductionsareneededinadditiontothesaferemovalandstorageof5billionto20billiontonsofCO2fromtheatmosphereeveryyearbymid-century(comparedtotodaysemissionsof40billiontonsCOperyear).FIGRE11.5oCpathwayGlobal CO2 emissions in billion tons per y

27、ear 50Bsinss-as-sual emissionsNegative emissions-10Net-negative2010202020302040205020602070208020902100Source:AdaptedfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange2018SR15,P1-P4Carbonremovalplaysacriticalroleinenablingtheneutralizationofsomeveryhard-to-abateemissions:(1)achievingnet-zerobymid-centuryi

28、ntimetokeeppeakwarmingbelowParisthresholds:and(2)deliveringnet-negativeemissionstocooltheplanetandbeginrestoringtheatmosphere.Removalsareacomplementtodeepemissioncuts,notareplacementforthem.Removalsshouldnotdistractfromemissioncutsandarethereforealwaysthefinalstepinamitigationhierarchyandcorporatemi

29、tigationstrategy.Therearevariousmethodsofremovingandstoringcarbon,eachwithuniqueadvantages,disadvantages,costsandotherattributes(seeFigure2andtheAnnexforabriefoverview,andtheCDRPrimerforadditionaldetails).Optionsincludenature-basedremovalmethods,manyofwhicharecurrentlyavailableatrelativelylowcosts,a

30、ndengineeredandhybridsolutions,someofwhich,althoughtheymaystillbeexpensive,arereadytobescaledup,whileothersareatearlierstagesofdevelopment.Thebillionsoftonsofremovalsrequiredcannotbedeliveredbyanyonetechnique;itisthereforenecessarytoexploreandscaleupabroadarrayofremovalmethods.2FIGURE2Carbonremovalm

31、ethodsBlue carbon Soil carbon sequestration ForestationOther biomass cartxn removal and storage (BiCRS) Strip biogenic CO2 from flue gas (X other processes, store it permanently. Includes bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).Accelerated weatheringOf natural minerals to react with, and t

32、hereby fix, atmospheric CO2Direct air capture and storage (DACS) Filter CO2 directly from the air and store it permanentlyThecarbon-removallandscapespansacrossnature-based,hybridandtechnologicalsolutionsForestationPlant,manageandgrowforeststoremoveandstorecarbonSOilsequestrationIncreasethesoilcartnc

33、ontentthroughchangesinlandmanagement(e.g.no-till)BlUecarbonIncreasethecartoncontentofastalzonesandwetlandsthroughchangesinecosystemmanagement(e.g.mangroves),OtheroceanCDROthermethodstoenhancetheoceansabilitytoabsorbcartxninecosystemsandoceanchemistry：BiocharVrProducecharcoalfrombiomassandusee.g.asys

34、oilamendmentorchemicaladditiveSource:AdaptedfromSwissRe,2020SoNARReDortCarbonremovaltechniquestakemanyforms,whichcanbecategorizedacrdingtothemeansofremovalfromtheatmosphere(e.g.photosynthesispoweredbyorganisms,enhancednaturalgeochemicalprocessessuchasweathering,engineeredfilteringofCOzfromair)andthe

35、meansofsubsequentcarbonstorage(e.g.inorganicmatter,mineralizedforms,geologicalreservoirs,Ihebuiltenvironment,long-livedproducts,oceansedimentsorothersinks).Theseeightbroadcategoriesaboveare-end-to-endremovalandstoragepathways:forexample,bioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)involvesphotosynthet

36、iccapturecoupledwithstorageingeologicalreservoirs,whereasforestationinvolvesremovalbyandstorageintothesamematerial(theabove-andbelow-groundbiomassoftheforestitself).CarbonremovalsolutionsaresometimesgroupedaccordingtothosethatareconsideredFature-basedversusthosethataretechnological/engineered,orthos

37、ethatareahybridofthetwo,butthesedistinctionscanbesubjectiveandoccasionallycontroversial(e.g.reforestationisuniversallyconsideredanature-basedsolution,whereasafforestationisnot).Carbonremovalcanserveatleastthreedistinctpurposesindeliveringclimateaction:-Compensatingforhard-to-reduceemissions:Someemis

38、sionsaredispersedorverydifficultorexpensivetoeliminate.Removalscancompensatefortheseuntiltechnological,politicalandeconomicconditionsallowfortheirabsolutedecarbonizationsHowever,suchremovalsmustnotcompromiseprogressonabsolutedecarbonizationordetermoreambitiousactionintheshortterm.Thoseemissionsthata

39、reconsideredhard-to-reduce,andthereforeappropriatetoaddresswithremovals,mustbecontinuallyreassessed.-CompensatefortheEarthsemissionsresultingfromclimatechange:Removalscanalsocounteractincreasedemissionsfromthebiosphereitselfthatresultdirectlyfromhistoricalandfutureemissionshavingwarmedtheplanet,butw

40、hicharedifficulttoattributetoanyspecificactors.-Tacklingthebuild-upofemissionsintheatmosphere:Removalsalsoallowthosepartiesthathavemadethebiggestcontributiontothecarbonbuild-uptoaddresstheirlegacyofcontributingtowarming.Itiscriticaltostoppresent-dayemissionsandreducethestockofcarbonthathasbuiltupint

41、heatmosphere.Onceglobalnet-zeroemissionshavebeenachieved,ongoingglobalnet-negativeemissionswillhavetheeffectofreducingCO2concentrations,coolingtheplanetandrestoringtheclimatetowardsapre-indstrialstate.Despitethecriticalimportanceofremovals,confusionabouttheirappropriateuseabounds.Thispaperdescribess

42、omeoftheissuesthatneedtobeconsideredwhenincludingcarbonremovalinnet-zerostrategiesandoffersavisionofwhatcrediblesupportforremovalslookslike.Thethreekeypillarsthatfollowofferastartingpointforcorporateleaderswhowishtoresponsiblyguidetheirfirms*engagementwithcarbonremoval.Understandcarbonremovalanditsl

43、imitationsWhatdoesasafeandenduringglobalnet-zerostatelooklike,andhowdoesthisgoalinformtheactionscurrentlyneededtobeginthetransition?- How much room is left to store removed carbon?- How quickly can carbon be removed and stored?-How easy is it for stored carbon to escape back into the atmosphere?Tech

44、niquestoremoveandstorecarbonvarywidelyintheirimpacts,benefits,costsandthefundamentalvaluetheydeliver.Thesedifferentattributeshaveimplicationsforthosewhowishtouseremovalstocompensateforfossilfuelemissionstodeliverastableandmaintainablenet-zeroemissionsstate,bothfortheirorganizationandtheplanetasawhol

45、e.Threekeycharacteristicsofremovalsarehighlighted,including:1.1Wheretoputremovedcarbon?Thefasterwereduceemissions,thelesscarbonremovalwillbeneeded.Bymid-century,anewjourneyfromnet-zerotoabsolute-zeroemissionswillneedtobewellunderway,aseverytonofcarbonremovedtofirstachieveandthensustainnet-zeroornet-

46、negativeemissionsmustbestoredsomewhere.Atlargevolumes,storagespacewillrun0ut.4Mostreadilyavailablecarbonremovaltechniquestodaystoreremovedcarboninthebiosphere(e.g.vegetationandsoils)orinthegeosphere(e.g.inmineralizedformsaboveorbelowtheEarth,ssurface).Biospherestoragehasthepotentialadvantageofprovid

47、ingvaluablenon-carboncobenefits,whilegeospherestorageisbothvastandeffectivelypermanentifimplementedwell.Othercarbon-storageoptionsincludemineralizationattheEarthssurface,inthedeepoceanandindeep-seasediments,andinthebuiltenvironment(e.g.structuraltimber)todisplacecarbon-intensivematerialssuchascement

48、andsteel,aswellasinotherlong-livedproducts.Differentcarbon-storageoptionshavedifferentavailablecapacities.Althoughthemaximumpotentialfornature-basedremovalsissubstantialitisordersofmagnitudesmallerthanthegeologicalcarbon-storageresource.Whenanoffsetpurchaserfinancesnature-mediatedremovalsusingcarboncredits,theyimplicitlyconvertfossilcarbon(emissions)intobiologicalcarbon(purchasedremovals).Thisisaone-waynetflowofcarbonfromtheverylar