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1、,61,Managers as Decision Makers,Chapter6,Management Stephen P.Robbins Mary Coulter,tenth edition,瑟蔡摆惯桔诀嫁姬构盐椎防龟爪哮鼠类沃树慈尽愚主翟咱匣卞灯枣狗杀悠management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,62,Learning OutcomesFollow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.,6.1 The Decision-Making Process.Define decis

2、ion.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.6.2 Managers Making Decisions.Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Describe the concepts of bounded rationality,satisficing,and escalation of commitment.Explain intuitive decision making.,治妮渔谰登迭接揪缮蛋的砚琶树梭媳迪宋佬时竿弟前裁况瘸便贺身匆诚晒manag

3、ement教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,63,Learning Outcomes,6.3 Types Of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions.Explain the two types of problems and decisions.Contrast the three decision making conditions.Explain maximax,maximin,and minimax decision choice approaches.6.4 Decision-Making Styles Desc

4、ribe two decision-making styles.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases.Explain the managerial decision-making model.,塞扬洋袁消辙钩茨换抨嘿等躬奄拉冲音败挤畔拔括钨舅体闺震祝猩晴苯梯management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,64,Learning Outcomes,6.5 Effective Decision Making In Todays World.Explain how managers can make effective

5、 decisions in todays world.List the six characteristics of an effective decision making process.List the five habits of highly reliable organizations.,业辛吠播违坞乏受团余咏稀誉恤申裸伍冈稀悍食滨吵谚宵稗坤握领虏时傈management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,65,Decision Making,DecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.St

6、arting point of decision makingThe Decision-Making ProcessIdentifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing,analyzing,and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.,铅扒

7、勋彦缔扳呼浙钉脆响煎稗逮屁葡夕唬渡脏岛溺抱辉渔臂插鸽谓啦帮顶management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,66,Exhibit 61The Decision-Making Process,逞源泅佩瓷判徽所驹错冰困倚候板始惩市定贮附妮封某忍阉吐隘筹建蛇唐management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,67,Step 1:Identifying the Problem,ProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Character

8、istics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority,information,or resources needed to solve the problem.,畏漓圆匣钱孺陵盈专褐缘奇孪览腕皆全御汇磺嗽邑喂叹詹痴凯迷蔬角纤陪management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,68,Step 2:Identi

9、fying Decision Criteria,Decision criteria are factors that are important(relevant)to resolving the problem such as:Costs that will be incurred(investments required)Risks likely to be encountered(chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired(growth of the firm),Step 3:Allocating Weights to the Criteria

10、,Decision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process.,夕悼赠一向勇烬壮惟吭详锻瓤卉矿啥隘镶灯愧巾我寒羔爽舍病寓赃套识憎management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,69,Exhibit 62 Criteria and Weights for Computer

11、Replacement Decision,罐讲坊材四更佰竿簇指郭丁归贤祟姜责毁息闷惫扳销缀练篓惠思昧智觅笋management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,610,Step 4:Developing Alternatives,Identifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed(without evaluation)that can resolve the problem.,Step 5:Analyzing Alternatives,Appraising each alternatives strengt

12、hs and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.,矮膊桔霜痴庚胀富闲笔竞压丁词波铀漂枢屿诸坡揍菱劲颠绳乒苗浑翱亩薄management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,611,Exhibit 63 Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria,疏狸性奎拼摇猾刑瑟计脉咏树开宪祭箭册蛔肛晦撩课卤终饲暂歧蝇呆痘拂m

13、anagement教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,612,Step 6:Selecting an Alternative,Choosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.,Step 7:Implementing the Alternative,Putting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from thos

14、e who will carry out the decision.,佑私碑阀渝挫卵圆链档睁类辆携戮痢卵民习碉口牟喷幻给六迭铸储义剑茸management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,613,Exhibit 64 Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria,猾晋宝炕辰牙糠滇笔找椅椅畔烷计寐谤尤靠疆虐茵弟求颖唆厂添厚烙节总management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,614,Step 8:Evaluating the Decisions Effect

15、iveness,The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved,what went wrong?,形际戒汇挫走取决择袁腾基恭队噪绪烦避集虐誉虾场犯眯赏恬殖改富喷暇management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,615,Exhibit 65 Decisi

16、ons in the Management Functions,爪娜咒晴兼逛小叶吟鼻独缚桂柳展犬竿唬藐魂贼饵筛敬琵累棠递页帆晦笑management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,616,Making Decisions,RationalityManagers make consistent,value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Are perfectly rational,fully objective,and logic

17、al.Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.Have a clear and specific goalWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.,穿穆田惟晒暮范听玫历隐令架痘劝霉勃矣廷免箍兹殷论貌扫候腑梳报侍猛management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapt

18、er 6,617,Making Decisions(contd),Bounded RationalityManagers make decisions rationally,but are limited(bounded)by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered th

19、at satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Influence on decision makingEscalation of commitment:an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong.,戏辅堪禾豌桃褒炙对锨徘按渝

20、婴啄遍蜒受逝箍毡接掂脆妥袁失漳埂忿坏吕management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,618,The Role of Intuition,Intuitive decision makingMaking decisions on the basis of experience,feelings,and accumulated judgment.,竖讼伎详惶寐蔡泊却既闽抽萍窟坟变獭页棕厩犀写秦奸铸报豫谚吟眨宅倾management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,619,Exhibit 66What Is Intuition?,So

21、urce:Based on L.A.Burke and M.K.Miller,“Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,”Academy of Management Executive,October 1999,pp.9199.,黎骚邱庚阴擅臭俘棕痰披修东溅丝眠努项辗丢桅涪廖墅旺本滥短筑韵陌灰management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,620,Types of Problems and Decisions,Structured ProblemsInvolve goals that are c

22、lear.Are familiar(have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Programmed DecisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.,利腰绰辩纶挛碗惯僚兼话喊挚淫坚秦吴翘殊夷曰异脏摊畏爆颜垢踢瓣锚灵management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,621,Types of

23、Programmed Decisions,ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond(applying a policy)to a structured problem.RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.,膀踏歌扮霹

24、选妓够倾法晌未铝牺栓禹药膝粥帧菇泅头展梨逢粤涤葱球阿菜management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,622,Policy,Procedure,and Rule Examples,PolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over$50.00.No credit purchases a

25、re refunded for cash.,雹档食槛伪牙羽玫老区营有指账畅壮弓毅充堑凉辩撵珊泵卵镰迄弟呵厚羞management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,623,Problems and Decisions(contd),Unstructured ProblemsProblems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed

26、DecisionsDecisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.,奋崇族瘁勇嫩钞隘冗龄韧为器铺虏种谅乞条还宏嫂萨隐泉匈联扁隐阀忿搞management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,624,Exhibit 67 Programmed Versus Nonprogrammed Decisions,砾蜂飘裸堪吗裔幂沧崖柯道俭奏痰操器肃彤劳湿腹纱驯挠佰旭渐叙棱垫庄management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,6

27、25,Decision-Making Conditions,CertaintyA situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.RiskA situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood(probability)of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alter

28、natives.,打圾诅遇睹袒凋太鳖繁甘秀擒阴湾仅触堕征蜂湿律单赠导士彭粥仓铰正飞management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,626,Exhibit 68 Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift,ExpectedExpectedProbability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy snowfall$850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5=362,500Light s

29、nowfall 350,0000.2=70,000$687,500,膘订贴帆赏莫琢圃网问病炯惩搪穷线裕柯宇复凑栓获酸瓣伞规兢馏胺癸彭management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,627,Decision Making Conditions,UncertaintyLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuit

30、ion,hunches,and“gut feelings.”Maximax:the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin:the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax:the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.,蜀氟壮术淘较蓟状息诫冯帘事浴妖缀彬郎舒添村秽荔摊娱麓缅审痢慧贿充management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,6

31、28,Exhibit 69 Payoff Matrix,匹滤抑皮家怂描侮设触拈辖挂斑俩乃首疵篮痪谷渣膊窟寡仔牛胳函噶企堑management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,629,Exhibit 610 Regret Matrix,椎削是久庙血翼亥道柳楚榆炯垂铲土嗅钻刻邦盾叉藩账园付吝础蒋怕吉加management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,630,Decision-Making Styles,Linear thinking styleA persons preference for using external data a

32、nd facts and processing this information through rational,logical thinkingNonlinear thinking styleA persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights,feelings,and hunches,参徊焉枢假瓮瞻粱巨觉脱盈泣枚赞摩窖输戌任囊责愚舶毯稗颓性乾沈丈梧management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapt

33、er 6,631,Exhibit 611 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases,充等娩沦斌看去乎涌妮沈槛态滇电脓畏伪霓恕衅锐百沼义仲袁暗康堂情眉management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,632,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,HeuristicsUsing“rules of thumb”to simplify decision making.Overconfidence BiasHolding unrealistically positive views of onesel

34、f and ones performance.Immediate Gratification BiasChoosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.,娇聊哗扛上逊禾垣焚哑销遁冈霞站溃站裴吨归戒秩魂柱钾俘炸哪鹅剁吉祭management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,633,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Anchoring EffectFixating on initial information and

35、 ignoring subsequent information.Selective Perception BiasSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.Confirmation BiasSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.,稠践盏舟晶拨租旧丘桌瞪仇袭牧老路累教垄癌烧审疤渴铃短代份烫店腾蛤manag

36、ement教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,634,Decision-Making Biases and Errors(contd),Framing BiasSelecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability BiasLosing decision making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation BiasDrawing an

37、alogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness BiasCreating unfounded meaning out of random events.,软赡旷种阳套写牙唯脏浸刺棱汀佣浚借捍小灿呜煞冠蜒伸佰嗽炮瞬轴耳速management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,635,Decision-Making Biases and Errors,Sunk Costs ErrorsForgetting that current actions cannot influence pa

38、st events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving BiasTaking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.Hindsight BiasMistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known(after-the-fact).,冕攻折溺蹦隅爵疙叶晶搁诫皋能裁宽樱驮倦啤还蔷呻红之绪芹垮舅谢大诉ma

39、nagement教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,636,Exhibit 612 Overview of Managerial Decision Making,皑铱颠璃拭销发渡夸琐盘构散拂只悠气颊狰始嚏旱咽爬慌悠鸽丛奄谁靡衬management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,637,Decision Making for Todays World,Guidelines for making effective decisions:Understand cultural differences.Know when its time t

40、o call it quits.Use an effective decision making process.Habits of highly reliable organizations(HROs)Are not tricked by their success.Defer to the experts on the front line.Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.Embrace complexity.Anticipate,but also anticipate their limits.,缕扛特锰才鸽发脸埋茸啃烽

41、需汤挂斜属紊布摄尤筋强斤段售匝做岗龙野赣management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,638,Characteristics of an Effective Decision-Making Process,It focuses on what is important.It is logical and consistent.It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.It requires only

42、 as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.It is straightforward,reliable,easy to use,and flexible.,疲稻湖当滚它睹肺吏惰页划噪顾亦彦胳赫筏票轿魁小巷历毗咨誓威劳吾荚management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,639

43、,Terms to Know,decisionDecision-making processproblemdecision criteriarational decision makingbounded rationalitysatisficingescalation of commitmentintuitive decision makingstructured problemsprogrammed decisionprocedurerule,policyunstructured problemsnonprogrammed decisionscertaintyriskuncertaintyd

44、irective styleanalytic styleconceptual stylebehavioral styleheuristicsbusiness performance management(BPM)software,雏文篡慌件滥屑减捌滨叼丸掉谐泉擂娥择骨屉十漱奔扑市旅是婪埂苟些蔚management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,640,All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted,in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,or otherwise,without the prior written permission of the publisher.Printed in the United States of America.,情跟刻守史哈舵田济努嗓卒拎啥断自克拦弛泊羊倘非参磺允戚窃鲜你焉帘management教学资料10erobbins_ppt06-rChapter 6,