麦肯锡-在美国再投资2023年12月（英）.docx

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1、McKiiisey&CompanyMcKinseyonGovernmentReinvestinginAmericaHelpinggovernmentsrenewthesourcesofeconomicstrengthanddeliverfortheirpeopleContentsZtIntroduction611217273949USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityTransformingpublicsectorhiringwithdata-enabledtalentwinrooms/67Federalfi

2、nancialmanagement:HowgovernmentscandomorewiththebudgetstheyhavezDigonce,couldhelpstatesmanagematerialandworkershortages72Inclusiveinfrastructureinvestment:HowtoempowercommunitiesOneyearintotheBIL:CatalyzingUSinvestmentsinenergy91Buildinginnovationecosystems:AcceleratingtechhubgrowthPavingthewaytores

3、ilience:Strengtheningpublicsectoradaptationplanningandexecution111Ruralrising:EconomicdevelopmentstrategiesforAmericasheartlandClosingthedigitaldivideinBlackAmerica119WillalaborcrunchderailplanstoupgradeUSinfrastructure?CanpublicEVfast-chargingstationsbeprofitableintheUnitedStates?127Unlockingthepot

4、entialofgenerativeAl:ThreekeyquestionsforgovernmentagenciesIntroductionAdi KumarSenior PartnerLeader, Federal Civilian PracticeAdi_KumarMcKNehal MehtaAssociate PartnerColeader, Reinvesting in AmericaNehal_MehtaMcKTim WardSenior PartnerLeader, State and Local PracticeTim_WardMcKTodd WintnerPartnerCol

5、eader. Reinvesting in AmericaTodd_WintnerMcKAs2023endsandwelookaheadto2024,ourworldandourcountrycontinuetofaceabroadrangeofchallenges-includingclimatechange,economicuncertainty,andcontinuedgeopoliticaltensions.Inthefaceofthesechallenges,theUnitedStatesisinvestingtrillionsofdollarsinpublic-sectorcapi

6、talviatheBipartisanInfrastructureLaw,theInflationReductionAct,andtheCHIPSandScienceActtobolstereconomicsecurity,energysecurity,andnationalsecurity.Inaggregate,thesenewinvestmentsseektoacceleratetechnologyandtransformAmericasindustrialpolicyandbuiltenvironment.Ifimplementedeffectively,thesepoliciesma

7、yfundamentallyalterthepublic-andprivate-sectorlandscapeforthenextseveraldecades.Theyear2023wasoneofplanning.TheUSfederalgovernmentdraftedandissuedguidanceforarangeofnewprograms.Manystategovernmentsdesigned,launched,andscaledcentralcoordinatingfunctionschargedwithwinningcompetitivegrantsanddeployingf

8、ederalfunding(competitiveandnoncompetitive,newandenduring)asefficientlyandeffectivelyaspossible.Agencyleadershavedevelopednovelapproachestodeployinggreenfinancing,expandingbroadbandinfrastructure,acceleratingnewtechnology,andbuildinghydrogenhubstoensurethattheUnitedStatescankeeppacewiththedemandsofr

9、apidmodernizationacrossindustries.Webelieve2024willbeayearoftransitionfromplanningtoimplementation,withmoreshovelshittingthegroundeachdaytobuildthefutureAmericaneconomy.Tomakethishappen,leadersatthefederal,state,andlocallevelscanworkwithindustrycounterpartstoaddressabevyofsignificantbuttractablechal

10、lenges,suchascomplexserviceprocurementtimelines,materialandlaborsupplychainshortages,andpermittingrestrictions.Toinspireyoureffortsovertheweeksandmonthsahead,wedevelopedthiscompendiumcontainingsomeofthemostreadperspectivesfromMcKinsey,sReinvestinginAmericaInitiative.Wethankyouforthetimeandenergyyoua

11、reinvestinginourcountryatthiscriticalmomentandwishyouallthebestin2024andbeyond.December2023USgovernmentproductivity:Amorethan$2,000perresidentopportunityGovernmentremainsoneofthebiggestproductivityimprovementopportunities.Organizationsmustbegivenboththeabilityandmotivationtoimprove.byNikhilSahni,Vis

12、hnuMurale,DavidCutler,ShubhamSinghal,andAlanGerberThisarticleisthefirstinaseriesontheUSgovernmentsproductivityimprovementopportunity.AstheUSeconomyhasevolved,ithasshiftedfrompredominantlymanufacturingtoservices.Whilesomeoftheseservicesindustrieshavemadeproductivityimprovements,manylagbehindtheoveral

13、leconomy.Forexample,healthcareremainsagrowthenginefortheUSworkforcebutisoneoftheslowestintermsoflaborproductivitygrowth.1Governmentisalsolargelyaservicesindustryandoffersoneoftheeconomy,slargestproductivityimprovementopportunities. Nikhil Sahni, Pooja Kumar, Edward Levine, and Shubham Singhal, The p

14、roductivity imperative for healthcare delivery in the United States, McKinseyf February 27, 2019. Government productivity: Unlocking the $3,5 trillion opportunity, McKinsey Center for Government April 2017. Data from OECD on general government spending, accessed on June 26r 2023; data from Internati

15、onal Labour Organization on public employment by sectors of national accounts, accessed on June 26,2023.Fornearlyallcountries,governmentrepresentsthelargestportionoftheeconomyandisthebiggestemployer(Exhibit1).Forexample,intheUnitedStates,governmentatalllevelsaccountedforabout47percentofGDPandabout17

16、percentoftotalemploymentin2020?Furthermore,governmentplaysacriticalroleinsociety,rangingfrombuildingroadstoeducatingyouth.Inmanycases,whenthegovernmentintervenes,itisnecessarybecausethereisnofunctioningcompetitiveprivatecounterpart.Moreover,theimperativetocapturethegovernmentproductivityimprovemento

17、pportunityhasintensified.TheCOVID-19pandemicputpressureoneconomiesaroundtheworld,promptinggovernmentstospendlargeamountsofmoneytodistributeCOVID-19relief.AsCOVID-19movestoanendemicphase,newmacroeconomicissueshaveemerged,mostnotablyatalentshortage,inflation,andhighdebt-servicingcosts.,Addie Fleron an

18、d Shubham Singhalf *The gathering storm in US healthcare: How leaders can respond and thrive/ McKinsey, September 8r 2022.Forexample,in2022,theUSfederalgovernmentspentthelargestamounteverondebtinterest,reachingnearly2percentofGDP.*What are interest costs on national debt/ Peter G. Peterson Foundatio

19、n, May 30, 2023.Havingtogetbywithbothasmallerworkforceandweakergovernmentbalancesheetssuggestthattheneedforproductivityimprovementshasincreased.Inthisarticle,wesetouttoestimatethesizeoftheUSgovernmentsproductivityimprovementopportunity.Wedefinedproductivityasoperationalefficiency;otherresearchershav

20、efocusedonpolicyeffectiveness(seesidebarrtWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?).WequantifiedtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunitybylevel-federalaswellasstateandlocalandcategory,suchashealthcareorroadtransport.Overall,wefounda$725billionto$765billionproductivityimprovemen

21、topportunitythatis,roughly$750billionannuallythatcouldbesavedwhilekeepinggovernmentservicesoperatingjustaseffectively.Thiswouldbeequivalenttomorethan$2,000perresident.About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel.Acrosscategories,about40percentoftheopportunitywasinhealthcare;9percentwasinprimar

22、yandsecondaryeducation.Wealsoconvertedthisopportunityintoanoperationalframeworkthatcouldaidgovernmentorganizationsindeterminingwhatactionstotake.Basedonourexperiencewithhundredsofpublic-andprivate-sectororganizations,theframeworksuggeststhatoperationalchallengeslieinanorganizationsabilityandmotivati

23、ontoimprove.Werecognizeandacknowledgethatavarietyofciviccompactsshapehowgovernmentssetpriorities,andthusgovernmentshavefundamentallydifferentimperativesthanthoseoftheprivateandsocialsectors.Governmentorganizationsmaymakeproductivitytrade-offsinserviceofthoseinstitutionalimperatives.Inthisreport,prod

24、uctivityisthefocus,butitisjustonewayofevaluatinggovernmentactivity.Exhibit1Inmanycountries,governmentspendingandemploymentmakeupasizableportionofGDPandtotalemployment,respectively.Breakdownofgovernmentspendingandemploymentbycountry,2020FranceGreeceBelgiumFinlandItalyDenmarkCanadaUKSwedenSpainIceland

25、SloveniaHungaryGermanyPortugalPolandNetherlandsGovernmentspending,%ofGDP52.452.152.051.251.251.150.449.248.347.8Percapitagovernmentspending,currentPPP,1$51529,41516,96232,12729,90724,50632,57725z08724,03729,23219,73927,79020,90617,451Governmentemployment,%oftotalemployment215I蛀24.115.529.029.219.425

26、.028,47317,21216,83828,613.17.1I17.1Totalgovernmentemployment,thousandsS,8097669046353,3528441,3805,3431,4613,1571789024,6587191,6491,14647.330,03322,633lPurchasing-powerpamy.Source:InterrutionalUbourOrganization;OECDMcKmsey&CompanyWhyhasitbeendifficulttomeasuregovernmentproductivity?Thetermproducti

27、vityisusedinmanycontextswithdifferentintentions.Forexample,leaderswanttotalktoeachotheraboutproductivitybutmayuseconflictingdefinitionswhentheydoso,leadingtodisagreements.Forthisarticle,weemployedadefinitionofproductivitythateconomistscommonlyusetoconductindustry-levelanalyses.1Thisfocusesonminimizi

28、ngtheinputsrequiredtoproduceasetofoutputs(exhibit).Tounderstandwhyithasbeendifficulttomeasureproductivityingovernment,itishelpfultofirstlookathowproductivityismeasuredintheprivatesector.Withrespecttotheequationintheexhibit,inindustriessuchasmanufacturing,inputandoutputpricesandvolumeproducedarequant

29、ifiable.Inputsrepresentthecostofgoods,sales,generaladministrativeexpenses,andothersuchoperatingcostsforgoodsorservicesproduced.Outputsareestimatedbythepriceaconsumeriswillingtopay,whichaccountsforthequalityofthegoodorservice,multipliedbythevolume.Tomeasureproductivity,itiscriticaltobeabletoseparatep

30、riceandvolume.Whengovernmentisinvolved,inputsandoutputsaremuchhardertomeasure.Researchershavetriedtoovercomethisprobleminafewways.Oneapproachhasbeentoconductinternationalcomparisonsbetweengovernments;thisoffersinsightintotheproductivityimprovementopportunityatthenationallevel. Robert M. Solowr *Tech

31、nical change and the aggregate production function/ The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1957r Volume 39, Number 3. Edwin Lauz Zsuzsanna Lontiz and Rebecca Schultz. *Challenges in the measurement of public sector productivity in OECD 180 countries/ International Productivity Monitor, Centr

32、e for the Study of Living Standards, 2017, Volume 32. 4lPubIic-Sector productivity (part 1): Why is it important and how can we measure it?/, World Bank Group, February 2021.Forexample,healthcarespendingcouldbecomparedacrosscountries,suchastheUnitedStatesandCanada.Butthesecomparisonsmaybemisleadingb

33、ecausetheydonoteasilytakeintoaccountdifferencesinhowgovernmentdeliversthesegoodsorservices,andtheresultingneedformoreorlessspending.Continuingwiththeexample,thelargelypublic,singlepayerhealthcaresysteminCanadamaynotneedasmuchmoneyasthemarketbasedmodelsintheUnitedStates.Thisapproachalsotendstoexclude

34、state-orlocal-levelcomparisons.Anotherapproachhasbeentodivedeeplyintoasetofgovernmentorganizationsanddevelopspecificmetrics.Forexample,toexaminetheefficiencyofpublic-healthinitiatives,someeffortshavetrackedmicroleveloperationalmetrics,suchashousevisitsbyindividualhealthcareworkers?Thesecanbehelpfult

35、otheextentthatthemetricsareoperationallyfocused.Thechallengewiththisapproachisthatitishardtoaggregateuptothetotalopportunityacrossthegovernment.Inourview,thesetwoapproachesaredirectionallycorrectbutareeachincomplete.Neitherprovidesacomprehensiveroadmapforthegovernmenttomeasureproductivityimprovement

36、opportunitiesacrossthefullrangeoffunctionsitprovides.Further,whenestimatingproductivityforgovernment,itisimportanttoseparateefficiencyfromeffectiveness.Productivityasdefinedinthisarticleisrelatedtothecreationofgoodsandservices;thisisefficiencyofproduction.Thegovernmentalsosetspolicy,theassessmentofw

37、hichconcernsquestionsofeffectiveness.Whileefficiencyistiedtospecific,measurableunits(thatis,detailedoutputsandinputs),questionsofeffectivenessfocusonhowoutputstranslateintodesiredpolicyoutcomes,suchasshiftsinwealthamongpopulationgroups.Effectivenessisoutsidethescopeofthisarticle.ExhibitProductivityT

38、otal value of outputsTotal value of inputsOutput volume X output pricesInput volume input pricesMcKinsey&CompanyTheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityToestimatetheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunity,weusedapreviouslyPublishedapproachbytheMcKinseyGIobaIInstituteandadaptedittocon

39、ductacountry-specificanalysis.6Thisapproachaccountsforbothcostandqualityandisappliedtothefederallevelandthestateandlocallevel.Wecenteredouranalysisonfivecoregovernmentspendingcategoriesinwhichcostandqualitydatawerereadilyavailable:healthcare,roadtransport,primaryandsecondaryeducation,highereducation

40、,andpublicsafety.Wethenusedtheseestimatestoscaleacrosstheremainingcategoriesofgovernmentspending.Webasedouranalysison2020governmentspendingdata.Thatyear,afteraccountingforintergovernmentaltransfers,governmentsintheUnitedStatesspent$9.9trillion,ofwhichapproximately58percentwasatthefederallevelandther

41、emaining42percentwasatthestateandlocallevel(Exhibit2)JOfthis0.04 0.04 0.050.11Exhibit2Forouranalysis,weconsideredabout58percent,or$5.8trillion,oftotalUSgovernmentspendingin2020.TotalspendingacrosstheUSStateandlocal=4.23Federal=5.72government,2020,$trillion Healthcare PrimaryandsecondaryeducationRoad

42、transport Publicsafety Highereducation Other(addressable)1 Other(notaddressable)Note：Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.NumbersadjustedforintergovernmentaltransferstoreflectwheretheworkIsdone.lForstateandlocalspending,Othercategoriesanalyzedincludecommunityandregionaldevelopment,internationalaffairs

43、,generalgovernment,andnationaldefense.Forfederalspending,othercategoriesana(zedincludeairtransportation,financialadministration,fireprotectionjudicialandlegal,generalgovernmentexpenditure,generalpublicbuildings,libraries,othereducation,othergovernmentaladministration,parksandrecreation,protectiveins

44、pectionandregulation,sewerage,solid-wastemanagement,andutilityexpenditure.Spendingthatwasunspecifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperationswasconsiderednotaddressable.Source:OfficeofMarugementandBudget;USCensusBureauMcKinsey&Gxnpany Government productivity. April 2017. The intergovernmental

45、transfers establish where the work is done versus where the work is funded. For example, Medicaid dollars are accounted for at the state and local level, though the funding is from the federal level. Due to data limitations, state and local spending could not be split.total,about42percentwaseitherun

46、specifiedorcouldnotbefurtheroptimizedintermsofoperations,suchaspayinginterestondebtorSocialSecuritypayments.Thistypeofspendingwasexcludedbecauseitisnotrelatedtoefficiencyofproductionbutismorecommonlyrelatedtopolicyeffectiveness,whichwasnotinthescopeofthisarticle.Asaresult,ouranalysisfocusedon$2.3tri

47、llionofgovernmentspendingatthefederalleveland$3.5trillionatthestateandlocallevel.WethenestimatedthattheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityis$725billionto$765billion,adjustingforwagedifferencesacrossstates(seesidebar“HowwemeasuredtheUSgovernmentproductivityimprovementopportunityw).About60percentofthetotalwasatthestateandlocallevel,withnearlyathirdoftheopportunityinhealthcareandabout15percentinprimaryandsecondaryeducation.Oftheremaining40percentatthefederallevel$285billionto$295billionabout50percento