世界银行-科索沃能源效率和可再生能源项目创造的就业机会：清洁能源转型创造就业机会的潜力（英）-202.docx

pzoq<alnsoosQ-qndJOBSGENERATEDBythekosovoENERGYEFFICIENCYIANDRENEWAB1.E(ENERGYPROJECTSOOQJobCreationPotentialoftheO冷CleanEnergyTransitionQ.CASl=STUDYnso5sQ-qndESMAP松济的MAMMJOBSGENERATEDBythekosovoENERGYEFFICIENCYANDRENEWAB1.EENERGYPROJECT新CleanEnergyTransitionESMAP防热FMoRl"awABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankandover20partnerstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecntriesreducepovertyandbstgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank'scountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBank,ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGl7(SDG7),whichensuresaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodemenergyforall.IthelpsshapeWorldBank'sstrategiesandprogramstoachievetheWorldBankQimateChangeActionPlantargets.1.eammoreat:https:/www.esmap.org.©November2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWzWashington,DC20433Telephone:;Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductoftheWorldBank,withcontributionsgivenbytheSta仟andconsultantslistedintheacknowledgments.Thefindings,intefpretatis,andndusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallcstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:/creativecommons.orglicensesby3.0igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposeszunderthefollowingconditions:Attribution-Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.JobsgeneratedbytheKosovoEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyProject:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition.ESMAPCaseStudy.Washington,DC:TheWorldBank.1.icense:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations-IfyoucreateatranslationOfthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnoteatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations-Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthisworkzpleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthentetcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythirdparty-ownedindividualmponentorpartntainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofdaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNWzWashington,DC20433zUSA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ProductionCreditsDesignerCirdeGraphics,Inc.CoverImageandotherphotos©WorldBankAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.ContentsAcknowledgmentsvAboutthisReportviAcronymsviiKeyFindingsviii1. Introduction12. KEEREPandtheKosovoEnergySector33. Overviewofthe1.aborMarket94. IdentificationandQuantificationofJobs115. Results156. BarriersandEnablersIdentified277. Conclusion29References321.istofTablesandFigures1.istofTablesTable 1. SummaryInformationontheFourCompletedPackagesFinancedbytheWorldBank6Table 2. DataSourcesandJobTypes12Table 3. DirectJobsCreatedbyConstructionFirm2during12MonthsofProjectImplementationforOnePackage15Table 4. DirectJobsCreatedbyConstructionFirm1During12MonthsofImplementationforOnePackage16Table 5. DirectJobsCreatedbyteDesignandSupervisionFirmDuring12MonthsofImplementationforOnePackage17Table 6. TotalDirectJobsbyPackage171.istofFiguresFigure 1. TotalspendingPerCountryforKosovoPackage221Figure 2. TotalSpendingPerCountryforKosovoPackage322Figure 3. TotalInputSpendingforKosovoforPackages2and323Figure 4. TheoryofChangeforEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyInvestmentsinKosovo30CONTENTSAcknowledgmentsThisworkwasmadepossiblebytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withfinancialsupportfromtheRoyalMinistryofForeignAffairsofDenmark.ESMAPisapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand19donorstohelplow-andmiddle-incomecountriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ThereportwaspreparedbyateamcoordinatedbyZuzanaDobrotkova(SeniorEnergySpecialist)andcomprisingofSheoliPargal(1.eadEnergyEconomist),AnnaAghababyan(SeniorOperationsOfficer)andAndersPedersen(SeniorEnergySpecialist).TheworkwasinitiatedundertheguidanceofRohitKhanna(PracticeManager,ESMAP)andcompletedunderGabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager,ESMAP)zwithoverallstrategicdirectionprovidedbyDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractivesGlobalPractice).AteamfromtheconsultingcompanyMathematica,consistingofFarazUsmanizDuncanChaplinzPatriciaCostazSarah1.eserzandSaraBrykzcollectedbackgroundmaterialandconductedupstreamresearchforthiscasestudy.Theteamacknowledgestheimportantinputs,insightsandassistancereceivedfromRhedonBegolli(SeniorEnergySpecialist),andAditya1.ukas(EnergySpecialist)andWorldBankconsultantsStephaniePinnington,NicolasFichauxandKavitaRai.Editor:FayreMakeig.AboutthisReportThisreportpresentsthefindingsandCondusionsofacasestudyundertakenunderaprogramofanalyticalworkthatinvestigatestheimpactsoftheglobaltransitiontocleanenergyonthequantityandqualityofjobsinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries.Undertheprogram,entitled''EstimatingtheJobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition/7theWorldBank'sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)undertookmultiplestreamsofanalysis: Areviewoftheliteratureandcommonlyusedmethodologiesofinvestigation ModelingofeconomywidejobimpactsofpoliciessupportingthecleanenergytransitioninselectedcountriesinSub-SaharanAfrica CasestudiesoftheeffectsonemploymentofselectedWorldBankcleanenergyprojects Deepdivesintotheimpactonjobsofclosureofcoal-firedpowerplants;ofproductiveusesofelectricityassociatedwithminigridsinNigeria;andoftheRusumoFallsHydropowerProject.Buildingontheabove-mentionedsteamsofanalysis,theprogramhasalsoproducedahigh-levelreportsummarizingitsfindingsandconclusions'Jobsfora1.ivablePlanet:JobCreationPotentialoftheCleanEnergyTransition''andadiscussionpapertosupportprojectdesign''TrackingJobsinProjectsFocusedonCleanEnergyandProductiveUsesofElectricitywzprovidingstrategiesfortrackingandenhancingjobcreationthatcanbeusedinthecleanenergyprojects.Thereportsdevelopedunderthisprogramtogetheraimtosupportlow-andmiddle-incomecountriesinreapinggreatersocioeconomicbenefitsfromtheenergytransitionbysupportingtheminincreasingthenumberandqualityoflocaljobsgeneratedwhileimplementingdeanenergyprojects.Realizingthebenefitsofthejobscreatedbycleanenergyinterventionswilldependoneffectiveplanningandpreparationintheearlystagesofprojectsandsustainedsupportduringtheirimplementation.Thereportstargetmultipleaudiences,frompolicymakerstodevelopmentpractitionersandacademics.Theyalsoaimtofamiliarizeenergyspecialistswiththeeffectsofenergyprojectsonjobsandgivethemtoolsthatenablethemtotakeaccountofandzwherepossible,maximizethesocioeconomicbenefitsofthecleanenergytransition.Thereportscanbefoundathttps:/www.esmap.org/publications.AboutthisreportAcronymsCPSEBRDCountryPartnershipStrategyEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopmentEUEuropeanUnionFTEfull-timeequivalentGDPgrossdomesticproductGGGIGoKI1.OKEEAKEEREPkWMCCMWMWhO&MPIUPVTOCUNIDOGlobalGreenGrowthInstituteGovernmentofKosovoInternational1.abourOrganizationKosovoEnergyEfficiencyAgencyKosovoEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyProjectkilowattMillenniumChallengeCorporationmegawattmegawatt-houroperationandmaintenanceprojectimplementationunitphotovoltaicstheoryofchangeUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganizationAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$ZUSD),unlessotherwiseindicated.KeyFindingsTheKosovoEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyProject(KEEREP)successfullygenerateddirectandindirectemploymentopportunitiesinKosovothroughEEretrofitsandrelatedactivities.TheprojectalsocontributedtoskilldevelopmentandmarketgrowthintheEEsector,potentiallyleadingtofurtherjobcreationinthefuture.However,challengesrelatedtotheimportationofmaterialsandtheneedfordomesticcertificationwereidentifiedasareasforimprovementinfacilitatingdomesticjobgrowth.Keyfindingsfromthecasestudywere:EmploymentImpact:Component1ofKEEREPzwhichinvolvedretrofittingandupgrading87publicbuildingswithabudgetof$16million,generatedatotalof418person-yearsofdirectandindirectemployment.DirectJobs:DirectemploymentopportunitieswerecreatedinthedesignandconstructionofEEretrofits,solarandEEapplianceinstallation,andintrainingandconductingEEaudits.Duringtheimplementationperiod,326person-yearsofdirectemploymentweregenerated,withthehighestnumberofjobsinconstruction,particularlyinEEbuildingfaadeandwindowinstallation.Thesejobswereprimarilyshort-term,andtheworkforcewaspredominantlylocal.SkilledRoles:Skilledpositionslikeengineeringandarchitectureofferedlonger-termcontracts,andcompaniesfacednochallengesinsourcingskilledlabor.Whilenospecificmeasureswerereportedforhiringwomen,asmallfractionofwomenwereemployedinskilledrolesinarchitecture,engineering,andmanagement.IndirectJobs:IndirectjobsresultedfromthedemandforinputslikeEEbuildingmaterialsandappliances.Estimatesbasedonadirect-to-indirectjobratiofromGermanretrofitprojectsyielded31domesticperson-yearsand92foreignperson-yearsofindirectemployment.Mostproductsandmaterialsusedwereimported,indicatingapotentialforfurtherjobcreationifdomesticcertificationandstandardsweremet.MarketDevelopment:KEEREPcontributedtothedevelopmentoftheEEmarketinKosovozincreasingthenumberofexperiencedconstructionworkerswithnewskills.ThiscouldleadtoadditionalemploymentopportunitiesinEE,knownas''replicationjobs.z,Training:Atotalof223buildingstaffreceivedtrainingforoperationsandmaintenance,enhancingtheirskillsandemployabilityintheEEsector.viiiKEYFINDINGSONEINTRODUCTIONThiscasestudyseekstoshedlightOntheemploymentimpactsassociatedwithWorldBankfinancingforenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergyinvestmentsinpublicbuildingsoverseenbythecentralgovernmentaspartoftheKosovoEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyProject(KEEREP)zwhichwasapprovedbytheWorldBankinJune2014andisexpectedtocloseinDecember2023.Despitetheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007-08andtherecessionaryperiodthatfollowed,Kosovoachievedrobusteconomicgrowthaveraging4.3percentperyearbetweenindependencein2008and2012.ThisresilienceofitsenomytotheglobaldownturnreflectedavarietyOffactors7includinglimitedinternationalintegrationwithglobalmarkets,asteadyinfluxofremittancesfromitsdiaspora,andthegenerallypro-growthcompositionofthenationalbudget(whichallowedforapproximately40percentofpublicexpenditurestobedirectedtopublicinvestments)(WorldBank2014).Yet,thecountryalsostruggledwithhighratesofunemploymentandpoverty.Joblessnessinparticularatover30percentin2012remainedacentraleconomicpolicychallenge(WorldBank2014).Inaddition,withapercapitagrossdomesticproduct(GDP)ofapproximately2,800(about$3,700in2012)andnearly30percentofitspopulationlivingbelowthepovertyline,KosovowasoneofthepoorestcountriesinEurope(WorldBank2014).Infrastructurebottlenecks,andinsufficientandunreliableelectricityaccess,inparticular,wereamongthetopconstraintsoffutureeconomicgrowthandenhancedproductivity.Kosovowasunabletogeneratesufficientdomesticelectricitytofullymeetitsenergydemand.Thisimpededtheuntryeconomicgrowthanddevelopment.In2014zforinstance,Kosovo,selectricaloperatingcapacitywasapproximately950megawatts(MW)zmostofwhichcamefromtwoantiquatedcoal-firedpowerplantsoperatingatwellbelowtheirinstalledcapacity(WorldBank2013).Continuedrelianceonexpensiveelectricityimportsestimatedatabout10percentofannualelectricitydemandin2012reducedtheresourcesavailabletoaddressothercriticaldevelopmentpriorities.Inaddition,underdevelopedelectricityinfrastructureimposedaburdenonfirms,disuragedprivatesectorinvestment,anddampenedjobcreation.Approximatelyhalfofthefirmsthatparticipatedinthe2013nationwideBusinessEnvironmentandEnterprisePerformanceSurvey,forinstance,notedthatunreliableelectricityaccesswasamajorobstadetothegrowthoftheirbusinesses(WorldBankandEBRD2013).KEEREPsoughttoaddressthesechallengesbyincreasingtheefficiencyofenergyuseinKosovoztherebyenhancingenergysecurity(byreducingcurrentdeficitsandrelianceonimports),loweringenergy-relatedpublicexpenditure,andimprovingtheenvironmentalimpactsofenergyuse.1Specifically,KEEREPaimedto(1)reduceenergynsumptionandfossilfueluseinpublicbuildingsthroughenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergyinvestments,and(2)enhancethewiderpolicyandregulatoryenvironmentforenergyefficiencyandrenewableenergy(WorldBank2014).ThenextsectionpresentsamoredetaileddescriptionofKEEREPwithinthecontextofthecountry'senergysectorpriorities.Thecasestudythendescribesthelabormarketconditionsinthecountry.Further,itsummarizesthefindingsfromaseriesofinterviewsofKEEREPstakeholders.Finally,thelastsectionsummarizestheresultsofthiscasestudy.Endnote1.AdditionalinformationaboutKEEREPisavailableat:https:/projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operationsproject-detailP143055.TWOKEEREPANDTHEKOSOVOENERGYSECTORIncreasingtheefficiencyofnationalenergyconsumptionhasbeenakeypolicygoalfortheGovernmentofKosovo(GoK).AspartofrecentpolicydialoguessurroundingKosovo'saccessiontotheEuropeanUnion(EU),forexample,theGoKhascommittedtoimplementingthespecificobjectivesoftheEUzsso-called"20-20-20"energyandclimatetargets,whichrequirethecountryto''reducegreenhousegasemissionsby20percent,increaserenewableenergyshareoffinalenergyconsumptionto20percent,andimproveenergyefficiencyby20percentby2022”(MinistryofEconomicDevelopment,RepublicofKosovo2017).EnergyefficiencyhasthepotentialtoplayanimportantroleinKosovoenomyforanumberofreasons.First,energyefficiencycouldenhanceenergysecuritybyreducingseasonalenergyimports,whichcompriseasubstantialshareofelectricityusednationally.AmarketassessmentconductedbeforeKEEREP'slaunch,forinstance,indicatedthatKoso