世界银行-赞比亚国家经济备忘录2024年6月：释放生产力和经济转型创造更好的就业机会（英）-20.docx

ZambiaCountryEconomicMemorandumUn1.ockingproductivityandeconomictransformationforbetterjobsJune2024WOR1.DBANKMacroeconomics,Trade,andInvestmentG1.oba1.PracticeEastandSouthernAfricaRegionTheWor1.dBankGroup!acknow1.edgementsThisreportwaspreparedbyateam1.edbyA1.bertPijuanSa1.a(SeniorEconomist),JorgeTude1.aPye(Economist),andPaavoE1.iste(PracticeManager).Theteaminc1.udedPhi1.ipSchu1.er(1.eadEconomist),JosephSimumba(Economist),MariaGabrie1.aFarfan(SeniorEconomist),1.y1.ianaGayoso(Consu1.tant),VaninaForget(SeniorAgricu1.tureEconomist),Auck1.andN.Kuteya(Consu1.tant),BrianMu1.enga(Consu1.tant),RyanKuo(Economist),SophiaMuradyan(SeniorPrivateSectorSpecia1.ist),SoujanyaChodavarapu(SeniorPrivateSectorSpecia1.ist),andNamuchanaMuyawa(ProgramAssistant).Chapter3oftheCEMdrawsfromaresearchco1.1.aborationwiththeZambiaRevenueAuthority(ZRA).FionaHinchc1.iffeprovidededitoria1.supportandKatarinaZeravicadesignedthereport.Thereportwaspreparedundertheovera1.1.guidanceofNathanM.Be1.ete(CountryDirector,AECE1.)zAchimFock(CountryManager,AEMZM)rAbhaPrasad(PracticeManager,EAEM1.),AghassiMkrtchyan(Program1.eaderand1.eadEconomist,AECE1.)zandWi1.1.iamBattai1.e(formerProgram1.eaderand1.eadCountryEconomist,AECE1.).Theteamwou1.da1.so1.iketoacknow1.edgethecommentsfrompeerreviewersandco1.1.eaguesA1.1.enDennis,A1.exSienaertrDinoMerottorEkaterinaVOStroknUtova,HananeAhmed,JohnKeyser,Nico1.oDa1.vrt,FaustoPatinoPenarIsakuEndofAhmedRostomrAndreasEberhard,ShaunMannzandMohammadFaridA1.AzimBinNoruzi.Theteama1.sogratefu1.1.yacknow1.edgestheco1.1.aborationwiththeGovernmentoftheRepub1.icofZambiaanddeve1.opmentpartners.Regiona1.VicePresident：VictoriaKwakwaCountryDirector:NathanM.Bc1.eteRegiona1.Director:HassanZamanPracticeManager：AbhaPrasadTaskTeam1.eaders:A1.bertPijuanSa1.a,JorgeTude1.aPye,andPaavoE1.isteITAB1.EOFCONTENTSACRONYMS2EXECUTIVESUMMARY4Mainpo1.icyrecommendations10CHAPTER 1: REFOCUSINGZAMBIAzSGROWTHMODE1.141.1 Introduction141.2 Fromaminingboomtofisca1.g1.oom-Zambia'sshiftingdriversofgrowth171.3 Nothingnewunderthesun-1.imitationsofZambia,scurrentmode1.forachievingsustainedandinc1.usivegrowth211.4 TransforminghowZambiagrows27Annex1.GrowthAccounting-Growth,1.aborproductivity,andtota1.factorproductivitydecomposition35CHAPTER 2: UN1.EASHINGAGRICU1.TURA1.PRODUCTIVITY362.1 Zambianagricu1.ture:Highunrea1.izedpotentia1.anddec1.iningPrOdUCtiVitV372.2 AgronomiccausesOfded1.ningagricu1.tura1.productivity422.3 Thero1.eofpub1.icpo1.iciesandinstitutionsinagricu1.tura1.stagnation472.4 Po1.icyrecommendations56Annex2.Under1.yingdataandfigures62CHAPTER 3: RAISINGTHEPRODUCTIVITYOFFIRMSANDWORKERS673.1 HarnessingZambia,sprivatesectorforbetterjobs683.2 Exp1.oringforma1.firmsandjobsinZambia693.3 Fa1.1.ing1.aborproductivityintheforma1.sector763.4 Whafsdrivingproductivitydec1.ine?823.5 Po1.icyrecommendations90Annex3.Detai1.edproductivityestimationanddecompositionmethodo1.ogy99REFERENCES103!acronymsZambiaDeve1.opmentAgencyZambiankwachaZambiaRevenueAuthorityAfCFTAAfricaContinenta1.FreeTradeAreaZDACEMCountryEconomicMemorandumZMKCITCorporateincometaxZRADISDirectInputSupportDRCDomesticresourcecost(ratios)DRCDemocraticRepub1.icofCongoERBEnergyRegu1.ationBoardFDiForeigndirectinvestmentFtSPFarmerInputSubsidyProgramFRAFoodReserveAgencyFTEFu1.1.-timeequiva1.entGDPGrossdomesticproductGRZGovernmentoftheRepub1.icofZamboHaHectareICTInformationandcommunicationstechno1.ogyI1.OInternationa1.1.abourOrganizationIPPIndependentpowerproducer1.CMS1.ivingConditionsMonitoringSurveyICU1.oca1.CurrencyUnits1.FC1.argecommercia1.farmUC1.ow-nmecountry1.MIC1.ower-midd1.e-incomecntry1.P1.aborproductivityMtMi1.1.iontonsNBFINon-bankfinancia1.institutionsPAYEPayasyouearnPPPPurchasingpowerparitySEZSpecia1.EconomicZoneSGRStrategicGrainReserveSMESma1.1.andmedium-sizedenterpriseSSASub-SaharanAfricaTFPTota1.factorProdUctMtyUMKUpper-midd1.e-incomecountryWDIWor1.dDeve1.opmentIndicatorsIEXECUTIVESUMMARYZambianeedstoincreaseproductivityandacce1.erateeconomictransformationtoachievesustainedandinc1.usivegrowth.Zambia'sdebtreso1.utionandongoingreformsareexpectedtosupportmacroeconomicstabi1.ityandreigniteprivate-sectorinvestment.ByOctober2023,theGovernmentoftheRepub1.icofZambia(GRZ)reachedanagreementwiththeOfficia1.Creditor'sCommittee(OCC)ondebtrestructuringundertheG20CommonFrameworkandzby1.ateMarch2024zitwasannouncedthatadea1.wasreachedwithbondho1.ders.Asoftheendofthefirstquarterof2024ztheZambianauthoritiesareinthefina1.phaseofdebtnegotiationsinvo1.vingtheotherprivate1.enders.Since2021.ftheGRZhas1.aunchedanambitiousreformprogram.Itsawtheprimaryba1.anceimproveby6.6percentagepointsin2022,bringingittoasurp1.usandcuttinginf1.ationbyha1.f.Theauthoritieshaveintroducedmeasurestoboostprivateinvestmentandhavereba1.ancedthecompositionofgovernmentspending.Butwhi1.etheeconomyisrecovering,structura1.Issuespersist;growthisneithersustainednorinc1.usive,fai1.ingtosignificant1.yreducepovertyorcreateenoughgoodjobs.Afterexperiencingaremarkab1.egrowthacce1.erationduringthe2000szZambia'sgrowthhaswaned.Short-1.ivedgrowthdriversanda1.imitedpovertyresponsetoeconomicgrowthcha1.1.engeZambia'sprospectsforachieving1.ong-terminc1.usivegrowth.Between1996and2015,aperiodwhichsawmuchofthegrowth,thenumberofpoorincreasedbymorethan2.5mi1.1.ion,withtherura1.popu1.ationaccountingformorethan95percentofa1.1.newpoor.By2022,60percent(around11.7mi1.1.ion)ofthepopu1.ationwere1.ivingbe1.owthepoverty1.ine.MostworkersinZambiaareemp1.oyedinsubsistenceagricu1.tureandtheinforma1.servicessector,wherewagesare1.ow.Stream1.inetheregu1.atoryandbusinessenvironment.Critica1.short-termreformsinc1.udero1.1.ingouttheG-Registryofbusiness1.icensesto1.oca1.authoritiestoimprovethepredictabi1.ity,transparency,andefficiencyofgovernmentprocedures；andintroducingrisk-basedregu1.ationtoreducetheburdenon1.ower-riskbusinessesandscarcegovernmentresourcesbyfocusingresourcesonhigher-riskfirmsandtopics.Theseinterventionswou1.deasethecostofdoingbusinessinZambiaandmakeitmoreattractiveasaninvestmentdestination,whi1.ea1.soreducingcompetitivedistortionsbetweenforma1.andinforma1.firms.Otherstepsinc1.udeintroducingtradefaci1.itationand1.ogisticsmeasurestoimprovethebusinessenvironmentfortradeandimprovingthebusinessenvironmentforforeigninvestors.Supportfirmstobecomeresi1.ienttoc1.imatechange.Specificpo1.icmeasurestopromoteprivatesectoradaptationinc1.ude:(i)supportingZambianbusinessestodeve1.opbankab1.eprojectsonc1.imatechangeadaptationandmitigation,focusingonc1.imate-sensitivesectorssuchasagricu1.ture,water,andenergy;(ii)increasingtargeteddomesticcreditforbankab1.eprojectsonc1.imatechangeadaptationandmitigation;and(iii)harnessingimpactinvestmenttowardsthecircu1.areconomyandinenterprisesintherenewab1.eenergyandc1.ean-techsectors.Bui1.dinstitutiona1.capacity.Greatergovernmentimp1.ementationcapacityisneededforprivatesectorpo1.icyandprogrammingtoaddresscross-cuttingconstraintstoproductivityandwagegrowth.Thegovernment'sinformationsystemscou1.da1.$obeexpandedwithkeydataforana1.ysisanddecisionmaking.Inaddition,thegovernmentcou1.dexp1.orenewsystemstoimprovedataco1.1.ectionandprocessingandestab1.ishacentra1.izeddatabankforaccessbydiversegovernmentandexterna1.stakeho1.ders.MOStnewforma1.jobsarcinthe1.owcst*payingsectors,whi1.ehigher-payingsectorscreatefewnewjobsMAINPOUCYRECOMMENDA11ONSUn1.eashingagricu1.tura1.productivityPo1.icyProb1.emShort-TermActionsMediUm-TermActionsInefficientandineffectiveagricu1.tura1.supportprogramspreventproductivitygrowth,hindercropdiversification,anddiscouragemuch-neededproductivity-enhancinginvestmentRea1.1.ocateFISPandFRAexpenditurestowardsproductiveInvestmentininfrastructure(e.g,transport,storage,processing),capacitybui1.ding,innovation,c1.imatechangeadaptation,irrigation,cropdiversification,extensionservices,andp1.anthea1.thprotectionandveterinaryservicesImprovethetargetingofF1.SPtoavoid“ghost"beneficiaries1.imitthero1.eofFRAtothatofastrategicfoodreserve(witha300kMtcei1.ing)Acce1.eratetheswitchofFISPtothee-vouchersystemMu1.tip1.etradebarriersineasethecostofdoingbusiness,crowdoutprivateactors,anddecreasethecompetitivenessofZambianagricu1.tura1.exportsMmoditiesImprovemarketinformationbydeve1.opinganindependentagricu1.tura1.informationsystemFaci1.itatetradeba1.1.eviatingtechnica1.barriersandroadb1.ocks,suchasextendingexportpermitsImprovePredictabi1.ityandtransparencysurroundingagricu1.tura1.tradedisruptionsOverre1.ianceonrainfedproductionbysma1.1.ho1.derfarmersexposesthesectortoc1.imatevariabi1.ityIncentivizewaterharvestingandIowcostfenergyandwater-savingtechno1.ogiesforwateruseandmanementDeve1.oppub1.ic-privatepartnershipsmode1.stocperatewithfarmingcommunitiestoinvestinIrngationwithwe1.1.-definedwateruserrightsandfeesInappropriateferti1.izeruseiscausingseveresoi1.degradationAcce1.eratefarmers'accesstoawiderrangeofferti1.izersandsoi1.-supp1.ements(1.ime)andsoi1.testingSupportamoreho1.isticapproachtosoi1.hea1.th,aswe1.1.assustainab1.eanddiversifiedagricu1.tura1.production1.ackofextensionservicesandadequateski1.1.sareho1.dingbackbetterJobsintheagri-foodsystemandtheforma1.agricu1.tura1.sectorIncreasesupportandspendingonresearch,innovation,training,andopacitybui1.dingAcce1.eratethedigita1.izationofagncu1.tura1.servicesInZambia(extensionservices,marketinformation,accesstofinance)BOX5:TheFoodReserveAgency:Fromstrategicgrainreservetodominantmaizemarketp1.ayerinZambiaTheFRAwasformedin1995inZambiatoho1.dbufferstocksireducepricevo1.ati1.ityandprovide1.iquidityinthemaizemarketduringtheinitia1.yearsofmarket1.ibera1.ization.In2modities.Furtheramendmentsweremadein2020tofurtherexpanditsmandateto:(i)managethenationa1.SGRtoensureare1.iab1.esupp1.yofstap1.estomeet1.oca1.shortfa1.1.sandfdemergenciescausedbynatura1.disasters;(ii)providemarketaccesstosma1.1.ho1.derfarmers;and(iii)managepub1.icagricu1.tura1.storagefaci1.ities.Whi1.eitmost1.yintervenesinmaize,FRAisa1.soincreasing1.ypurchasingsoyabeans.TheFRA,sinterventionsaredistortiveanddiscourageprivatesectorparticipation.AWor1.dBankreport.Ro1.eofStrategicGrainReservesinEnhancingFocdSecurityinZambiaandZimbcbwe(Wor1.dBank,2021e)eva1.uatesitsevo1.vingro1.e,fisca1.cost,andeffectsinthemaizemarket.ItfindsthatthemanagementoftheSGRhasimposedamajorcostontheTreasury,whi1.ethepricestabi1.izationpo1.icyhashadnegativeeffectsonprivatesectorparticipationanddepressedinvestmentinthemaizesector.Current1.y,theFRAisamajormarketp1.ayerinthemaizemarket,buyingthecommodityeveninareasthatarewe1.1.servedbytheprivatesectorandgenera1.1.yabovemarketprices.TheFRAshou1.d1.imititspurchasestotherequiredSGRamountandbuystocksfromareaswheretheprivatesectoris1.ess1.ike1.ytooperate.Toincentivizefarmerstoproduceforthenextseason,theFRAshou1.dassumethero1.eofbuyerof1.astresort,ensuringthatitsresourcesareavai1.ab1.etofarmerswhentheyfai1.tofindamarket,orwhenthemarketpricefai1.storiseabovethef1.oorpriceofferedbytheFRA.Servingasabuyerof1.astresortmeansthattheFRAwou1.dbebuyingatthetai1.endofthemarket,givingfarmersmoreoptionstomarkettheircrops,whi1.e1.imitingpressureontheTreasury.Thereporta1.sodemonstratesavenuesforimprovement:(i)1.ogisticsandgeographica1.distributionofgrainreservestoragefaci1.itiesacrossthecountry,whcinmostcasesdonotcoincidewithdisasterhotspots;(Ii)eartywarninginformation.Inc1.udingonthepositionofstocks；and(iii)diversificationofthecurrentemergencyfooddistributiontoprovidenutritionbenefitstofoodinsecurehouseho1.ds.Zambiahasahistoryofinconsistentagricu1.tura1.tradepo1.iciesandadhocmarketinterventions.Se1.ectiveimportandexportbansoncommodities,especia1.1.ymaizeandsoya,arecommon.Combinedwithgovernmentinterventionsinmaizemarketpricesandunfavorab1.etaxpo1.icies,theymakeZambiaacha1.1.engingagricu1.tura1.tradingpartner,despitethecountry,spotentia1.tobeafoodbasket.Therehaveb<*enperiodswhenon1.ytheFRAhasbeena1.1.owedtoexportthroughgovernment-to-governmentdea1.swithoutprivatesectorparticipation.Evenwithoutexportrestrictions,agricu1.tura1.traderemainsheavi1.yregu1.ated.Maizegrainandf1.ourarea1.1.owedforexportonamonth-to-monthbasisthroughaquotasystemva1.idfor30dayson1.y,1.imitingtraders/abi1.itytonegotiateforwardcontractswithfarmersandbuyersa1.ike.Thissystemdiscourages1.argecommercia1.farmsfrominvestinginmaizeproduction.Additiona1.1.y,a1.1.maizeandmaize-re1.atedproductsaresubjecttoa10percentexport1.evy,whi1.etransportpermitsarerequiredtomovethecropacrossdomesticdistrictborders,addingtothecostsandputtingsma1.1.-andmedium-sizedfirmsatadisadvantage(Wor1.dBank,2O22b).ZambiaG>mrEconomicMemorarxkjm61Tab1.eA3,Comparisonofefficter>cyindco(fsformaize,SOybeogOndsunf1.owerforfami1.yformersZambiaSUntryEa>nomkMemorandum65InPUtOutputMatzcEar1.ySoybeansSUneOWCrMaizeCe11tra1.Province(Mkushi)F/Mhigh(Mt/ha4×4)Prrvate1)48)390.200.48110-A皿、3、g1fY1.DCR)60),46a0.54CiCDFRA1.19).60a1.27F1.Pnvdfe)61)33),18Q62rnrwCKDPnvate.).46a1.02H11V3Wef?-CftFISPIjScascr11rrcyv11cev11pa37FAMhigh(Mth等4*4_Drk/AtAk>d)030D22053Hnvaxe6；S8A0.72FISPVPrivateri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