Driving Tests：2017年电动汽车与自动驾驶汽车消费者调查.docx

Dnving-TestsorgSnFEdMVaaAC1.Cfrti½ASPIRINGDRIVERSWEIGHAUTOMOTIVEREVO1.UTIONDriving-Tests.orgsurveysitsusersabouttheirviewsone1.ectriccarsandse1.f-drivingcars.March-Apri1.2017Y9UftS-a1.9Itt。“日UMHU«wn«*SXMMK,iB.MB.»»X1H3(Havooot”8等Ss柏ON"(tiSBV>MS5Ozi)【8BiMiMIoo(1.81.MBM099)W"VWOoot1.(MMVM(M02WSItiaf1.biaB(Ma1.(9oo*Hi4dOOS1.nvg,一.?H%三三9VB><BMT经销商1.5G/心营全套资料/涵盖：经销商开店指南、门店运营、汽车活动策划案例，销售提升技巧、促单培训资料、顾客异议处理等。微信公众号：在职充电社TAB1.EOFCONTENTS1 ExecutiveSummary032 Introduction043 Background054 Approach074.1 ChoiceofSurvicateP1.atform084.2 C1.eaningtheDatasets094.3 Too1.set095 SurveyResu1.ts105.1 AgeDistribution105.2 ResponseDrop-Off125.3 Question1125.4 Question2135.5 Questions145.6 Question4155.7 Crosstabs175.7.1 Question1vs.AgeGroup175.7.2 Question4vs.AgeGroup185.7.3 Question1vs.Question2195.7.4 Question1vs.Question3205.7.5 Question3vs.Quesiton2215.7.6 Question1vs.Question4225.7.7 PredictingQuestion1Responses236 FutureDirections267 Conc1.usions278 Appendix298.1 MarginofError288.2 TheChi-SquareTest298.3 1.ogisticHegression30AboutDriving-Tests.org3101EXECUTIVESUMMARYInMarch2017.aspartofitsongoingmarketingcampaign.Driving-Tcsis.org(hcinCaHed(DTO)hadbeidam>ricsofdiscussionsWiIhjUUnV1.1.iUIrxwnau1o11xive.business,andhigh-krehmediaOawhattheywou1.dmost1.iketoknowfromaspiringdrivc11i.WeQfCrcdtoSUrVCyvisitorstoDTO,swebsitetoco1.1.ectandana1.yzetheirresponses.InMarchandApri1.,weM1.rVeyCdtensofthousandsofvisitorstoDTO'sWCbSiIc.VisitorsSUrVCyedrangedinagefromchi1.drenunder13oseniors,We(henPerfbrmedaMatisiica1.ana1.ysisofIheresu1.ts.ThemostSignifcantresu1.tsfromoursurveyareasfo1.1.ows:1. RespondentsWCtVaskediftheywoukiconsiderpurchasinganCkrCtriCcaroveracomparab1.yPriCedgao-1.i-powcrcdvehic1.e.Byak;ts!woo(mw,resoxfen(sina1.1.agegnusMatedthat1.wwou1.dno.Theperventag#varieds1.ight1.ybyagegroup.2. KcsptindentswereaskediftheyWoUIdbeconcernedabouthdi11ginafu1.1.yse1.f-drivingcar.Therewerestrungopinionsinbothdi11xtios.Ap1.ura1.ityofrespondentsstatedthattheywou1.dbeextreme1.yconccrncd.andaNo1.neWha1.SmaIierercenugeofresp<n1.en<sSUi1.edhaUieywou1.dobeCanCemedata1.1.3. Respondentswereaskediftheybe1.ievedthatthebcncftsofse1.f-drivingcarswou1.dOInWCightheirrisksandcosts.ThepercentageofrespondentswhostatedthattheKcncfiswou1.dnotoutweighIhCnegativeswas1.argerthanthepercentagewhos1.atedIhaKIhebewftswou1.dOUgeigh1.Mnegatives.Vieusonthisis-sueappearedtobere1.atedtonndents*persona1.1.eve1.sofconcernJboIH11dingInafu1.1.yse1.f*drivingcar.4. Respondentswereaskedwhichautomanufacturertheybe1.ievedwou1.dse1.1.themoste1.ectricvehic1.esandse1.f-drivingvehic1.esinthefuture.MorerespondentsChoSeTcs1.athananyotherautomanufacturer.,cs1.awasfo1.k*wodby,oyoU.HondxChcvroIc1.andFordinthatorder.Ap1.ura1.ityofteenagers(whocompriseover40percentofDTO'stota1.visitors)be1.ievedthatTcshwoWse1.1.moreCkXtriCcarsandSe1.fdrivingcarsthanother11nuIac1.urrnitbutP1.UndiIiCSofo1.deragegroupstendedtofavorToyota.5. RcspoixkntsWhOfavoredTcs1.awereinorcIikdytoconsiderpurchasingand<xtriccar.6. ResponsestothesequestionsWCrCnotindependentofeacho<hcr.Rather,theprobabi1.itythatarcspondentwou1.danswerinaparticu1.arWayOnequestionwasre1.ated10txHhhisorherageandhowheOrshewou1.danswerIheotherqeaions.(Detai1.sarcprovidedintherestofthisreport.)02INTRODUCTIONDriving-Tes1.s.org(hereinabbreviatedDTO)hastriedtofndouthowitsownusersaspiringdriversstudyingfortheirknow1.edgetests-fee1.aboutheseau(omotiveadvances.Aretheyeager1.y1.ookingfbnvaidtodrivingsuchadvancedmachines?94%ofrafcaccidentsarccausedbyhumanchoiceorhunanemirThecomputerre<>1.t<>nisbringingBuckRefersto><>rnextcar.I1.icmost<dvaedmode1.snowfcaiurcautomaticemergencybraking(AEB).Ianedepartuwarning,natocruisecon(r111.Ihmau1.onauca1.1.ynaintaib.anadequatefo1.1.owingdistance,<utom<(kc1.1.isionavoidance,<ndse1.f-parking.Evense1.f-drivingcarsmaybeontheroadinIhcn<X-1.oo-dijiUntfuture.I,hcUSDepartmentOfTransporta1.ionisCki二thautomanutacturcrstoequipa1.1.newcarswithAEBbySeptemberIt2022.AIUj)conductedbytheNationa1.HighwayTrafcSafety/Xdniinis1.rutkm(NHTSA)in20052007foundItvI1.some94pcrccnofirateaccidentsarccausedbyhumanchoiceorhumanc11r.Sti1.1.,handingCQnIr1ofyourvehic1.eover(oacomputerratcsobviousissuesofsafety,re1.iabi1.ity,cytxrrs<xuriiy.cthks.and1.ega1.responsibi1.ity.Iikc1.riccarsarcDonpo1.1.u1.ing.andtheirstoragebu1.tcrkscanbechargedwithe1.ectricityf11>manysourceofPOWCrHowever,istheirrangeadequateforAmericans*needs?ADdwi1.1.enoughchargingstationsbebui1.t?Driving-Tcsts.org(hereinabbreviatedDTO)hastriedtofndouthouitsusers-aspiringdriversstudying(ortheirknow1.edgetests-fee1.abouttheseautomotiveadvances.Arctheycagcriy1.kingforwardtodrivingsuchadvancedmachines?03BACKGROUNDInMarch2017.aspartofitsongoingmarketingcampaign.DThadhe1.daseriesofdiscussionsWithjocima1.istsfromautomotive,business,andhigh-techndiaonwhattheywou1.dmo、【1.iketoknowfromaspiringdrivers.Wcofcrcdosun,cyvisitorstoDTO'swebsitetoco1.1.ectandana1.yzetheirresponses.Fred1.ambert,theEditor-in-Chiefof1Ickhik.suggestedaskingthem(hefo1.1.owingthreequestions:1. Wou1.d),ouChoOJiCane1.ectricvehic1.eoveraCQmpanibIypricedgaspoweredvchick?Yc.No2. Whichbnnd(nuke)ofcardoyouthinkismostinnovativetoday?Respondentscou1.dnameanybrand(heywished.)3. Foryoutorus!ridinginase1.f-drivingcar,i(Iusobejusds.IWiCeas.f<urinwsast(entimesasre1.iab1.easahumandriver.WcperformedaCoUP1.eofprv1.imimryexperimenta1.surveyson(heS11c.p1.aitorm.Ar。Und(histime.DTOhiredaprofessiona1.statistician.Iu1.ianaDavk!.toassistuswiththestatistica1.ana1.ysesof(hesurveyresu1.ts.AfterdiM：ussingthesequestionsandpre1.iminarysurveyresu1.tswithher.weconc1.udedthatQesiov2and3Wc1.UkineedSignifcanireformu1.ation(oyie1.dusefu1.nndSUi1.iMicaIIySignifcantsurveyresu1.ts.Prob1.emswithsurveyingvisitorstoDTOaboutQuestion2inc1.udedthefo1.1.owing:4. Poorresponse:Theoverwhe1.mingmajorityofresp<mdcnisvcrcunab1.etoconceiveofresponsestothisopcn-cndcx1.question.Asaresu1.t,ourSamPksizesfor(hisquestionweremuchs11w1.1.er1.unWehadhoped.5. Mode1.sinsteadofmakes:Forexamp1.e,onerespondententered,Camano,*insteadof'thevrotetJMiMindersUndinKs:Onerespomkntemere<i"NAPAmzuoParts.Numeroussnarkyor“tro1.1.“responsesWcdecidedtoreIbnnu1.atcthisquestionasmu1.tip1.echoice.InourCariysamp1.eruns.Chevro1.et.Ford.Honda.Tes1.a,andTOyoUihadbeentheCkarfront-runners,sowedecidedto1.imitthisquewiono(hc>sefvechoicesp1.usacatcha1.1.,4OhcrOrNone'*category.Wehada1.sonoticedthatrespondentshadnotratedTcs1.abetterthanfourthp1.ace,<kspi1.c(heirwc1.1.<pub1.>cizcdadvancesine1.ectricpropu1.sionandse1.f-drivingtechno1.ogy.WewonderedifrespondentshadInVOrCdothermakesofcarsasmoreinnovativethanTes1.abecausetheyprejudgingMinnovationMdiferent1.y.Automakershave,ofcoun»e.introducedtechno1.ogica1.innovations(suchasAndroidAuto)recent1.ythatdrivcnebutwhichhavenothingtodowithe1.ectricpropu1.sionorse1.f-driving.According1.y,WCdecidedtorefocusthequestionfromthevagueno(ionof''innovation'towardamoreobjectiveassessmentoftheautomanutacturcrs,re1.ativecommercia1.successinse1.1.inge1.ectricorse1.f-drivingcars.Question3hadOrigiiu1.1.ybeenibmiu1.aiedasnn1.(i1.echoice.Howeier,webecameincreasing1.yconcernedatx)u1.thesubjectivityandambiguityoftheprovidedchoices.Juxthowdirespondentsthinkaboutre1.iabi1.ity?By"twiceasrdiabk'didtheymeanha1.fasmanyrewir>orIu1.fasmanyaccidenis?Motwver,howdidt>eyneasurere1.ubi1.itytsiewedidnprovideanobjectivestandardforthemtouse?AswithqucM>on2.wedecidedchatthisquestionneededsomereformu1.ationtomakeitmore()cctivcand1.essambiguous.SURVEYQUESTIONSForourmain(and1.argest)survey,wedecidedonthefo1.1.owingfourquestionsfor1.)TO,5visitors:1. Wou1.dyouChooSCane1.ectricvehic1.eoveracomparab1.yp11ccdgas-poweredvehic1.e?(Yes.No!2. I1.owconcernedWoUkiyoubeaboutridinginafu1.1.yse1.f-drivingcar?Sca1.efromOioi)3. Wi1.1.(hebeneftsofse1.f-drivingvehic1.esoutweighIheirrisksandcosts?(Sca1.efromOtoIO4. Whichofthefo1.1.owingmanufacturersdoyou(hinkwi1.1.se1.1.themaste1.ecricvehic1.esandse1.f-drivingvehic1.esin(heneMIOyears?(FOn1.Chevro1.et.Honda.Tes1.a.Toyota.O(herorNone04APPROACHWeknewthatDTO,susersWereoverwhe1.ming1.yyoung4sowethoughtitwou1.dbeMor1.huhi1.e(ocontrasttheviewsof20-3536-50Mi1.1.enniahwhovisitedDTOwiththeviewsofIioii-Mi1.1.enniu1.visitors.TervisnoJondArddefni(ionof*bMi1.knnia1.,*According(o.,1.beIcrmmayhavOriginU1.CdwithNei1.IICwe；mdWi1.1.iamStra3,a-thocsofIhe1991bookGenenI1.iIMNr11eHiMor,ofAmerica'sFuur,ISfUo2069.HoweaxiS11ttis<fefeheMi1.1.ennia1.co1.>11ftasCoiisisiingofindividua1.sbornbetween1982and2(KM.Wedecidedtoado<thisdef-nkion.According1.y,oursurveyaskedeachrespondenttostatetowhichofthefIJowingagegroupsheOrshebe1.onged:6-12.13-19.20-35.36-50.51-64.and65-90.Mi1.1.eimiakasdefnedbyHoweandSirauss,com-prise(hesecondandthirdcategories.Itsh1.dbenotedthatatJCaMoneofusonthisprojectownsaTcs1.ae1.ectriccarandeveninvestsinTes1.a.Houccr.wcwereawareoftheneedtoavoidbiasorCoC1.fk1.ofinterest.WcWCrVcarefu1.n<>t(ointro-duccanyPmTCda(orUn1.iT&k)biasintocitherthequestionstotheUSCRi(>r(hedesignofUwsurvey.4.1 CHOICEOFSRVICATEP1.ATFORMForperformingthesurveys,wehadorigina1.1.ychosentheGoOxIeSurveysp1.at-formbecause(herangeandbreadthofrtxtookhadappearedadequatefarthekindsofSUrVcy5WCwerep1.anningK>do.andWCWCEa1.readyfami1.i<rwithIhasCtoo1.s.WCstartedrunningsurveysonMarch10.2017,buWeMXmf<mfihafi1.teringrespons-esonGOOgieSurveyswasunacceptab1.yjJow.TheGcog1.eSurveysTcani3dmiUCdthatcu11ent1.y.WCbSitCsurveyswere1.imitedtonon-mobikdevicesforwhicha1.1.adb1.ock-CrSweredisab1.ed.Thatwou1.dccnain1.y1.imitouruniverseofpotentiaJresfnd0(NsincemostDOusersare(asweMMmconfirmed)ycning.andmanyyoungPe1.P论nowusesnwnphonesOrUibie1.HiiMeadofcomputers.(RTOevenmakesavai1.ab1.esmart-p!¼measf(nuser*WhowishIotakeDTO*sraceedrivingtestson11u>bitedevices.)WedecidedtoswitchfromGOOg1.eSurveystoSurvicatc.1.ikeGoog1.eSurveys.SunicatcOferSaseiof1.ooka>dsurveytemp1.ates(haa1.1.owyoutosetupandrunawebsiesurvey.Survicaiea1.1.owsyoutoCXPOfIboth(herawdataandthesummaryStattstkstoMkixxsoftExce1.-compatib1.eNprcadshocts.Wcwereunfami1.iarwithSurvkatc,s1.oo1.sct.sothereWaSa1.earningcurveassociatedwithi(atfrst.A1.so.SurvicatceS1.ookdidnotfee1.quiteasprtcssona1.asthow:providedbyG<>og1.cSurveys.Ittook*cvca)hoursp1.ussome1.ivechatswithSurvicatc,ssupportSiafTorustoredesignandsetupourfrstCNPCrinKnuI1.surveyonSunicafe.afterwhkhwewereupandrunningOfIMarch24.2017.A1.mostatonce,wenoticedthatresponseswerecominginmuchfasterthantheyhadeverdoneonGooS1.CSurveys.Thiswasprobab1.ybecauseSurvicate,un1.ikeGOOgICSurveys,fu1.1.ysupportsconductingsurveysonmobi1.edevicesaswe1.1.asoncomputers.NowwithSurvicaie.wedecidedtoperformourIargeS1.SUTVeyrun(o<he.IntheA1.1.owingsections.Wewi1.1.summarizeOUrresu1.s.4.2 C1.EANINGTHEDATASETSTherawdatasetcontainedmanystndardSunicatcsurveyteJdsthatWCdidno<needorwant,suchastheresondcnt,sfi1.1.name(whichWChadnotaskedson<kniscopro-VidC).Wcscrubbedorignoredhcscfeids.A11xweseriouspnih1.einintherawd；ua5e(W然(heexistenceofdozuofenroiieousrecords.Wchadcarefu1.1.yXPbifCdthechoiceofagegroupandquestionsIIhnCH1.gh4asmuhipkchoicewithmutua1.1.yexc1.usivechoices.Neverthe1.ess.510records(outofsome157,0()0recordsgathered)containedmu1.u1.cresponsessuchasmu1.tip1.eagegroupsc.g.m6-12.)3-19*)orcarbmnds(eg.,“Honda,Toyo*r).A1.1.theserecordshad(obee1.iminaedfromourana1.ysis.Survicateis:iWagCf1.heprob1.em,buttheyhaveo>,esupp1.iedah.4.3TOO1.SETForthestatistica1.ana1.ysisofthedatasets,Ms.David,ourstatistician,preferredtousetheR1.anguageandtoo1.set.RisanOPCnroUrCCCnviroC1.mCfnforSIaIiWiC川ana1.ysisandgraphing,!tiscapab1.eofhand1.ingvery1.argedatasets.CvCndatasetsmuch1.argerthanourown.05SURVEYRESU1.TSOurmainsurveywasa1.soour1.argest,at158.(MH)visitorresponsesgamcrcdt,ro<Apri1.4toApri1.17.2017.158,000responses5.1AGEDISTRIBUTIONAssU(edear1.ier,oursurveycoveredsixagegnns:6-12,1-I9.20-35,36-50,51-64.and65-90.Theresu1.tsofourta1.1.ybygcgroupwereasIb1.1.ows.Mi1.1.ennia1.strong1.yPredUmiruItvd,representing75.1%ofrespondents.Infact.43.5%ofrespondentsWCrVkcn*gcrN.CI1.icmarginofc11rWaji0.3%,)Thcaverageage(weightedbynr、PondCntsperagegroup)WaS26.9.within(heMi1.1.ennia1.;igc11mgcaxWChadexpected.Mi1.1.ennia1.sPredominateSw3puods38O射DTOcaterstosevera1.typesofusersofdiferingages,inc1.udingthefo1.1.owing: Aspiringautomobi1.edrivers(most1.yteenagers) AspiringInotorcxxz1.ktsseekingan)torcy1.cend<>rsennontheirexistingdriver's1.icenses Aspiringcommcrvia1.driven；(whomustbeat1.east18ycan«ofageIo0bU1inaoommcr-cia1.icarncr'scrmit) Seniors1.ookingtobrushuponIhCirdrivingski1.1.sWewonderedifthisvarietymightCaUMrtheDTOuserdistributionbyagetodeviatefromanorma1.distribution.Wcdecidedtotesithenu1.1.hyp<MheisthatthePCiVCmageSofrcson-dentsbyagegroupformanorma1.distribution.However,therewasaprob1.em.Ihctestsfornorma1.ityUN1.anyrircthebinsofahistogramtohaveequa1.widths,hc;igerangesofouragegroupsarcnotequa1.1.ywide.Thaiis.the65-90agegroupinc1.udesaboutfourtimesasmanyyearsashc6-12agegroup,meaningha(the65-90binofthehistogramwou1.dbeR>urtimesaswideasthe6-12bin.Tocorrectthisbiassowecou1.dhavebarsofequa1.widths,weweightedthenumberofre-spondcntsperagegrouptonorma1.izethere1.ativewidths(ageranges)ofeachagegroupwhi1.ekeepingthetota1.numberOfrcspondcntsthesame.Next,weranaJarquc-IkiMtestfornorma1.ityonthenumbersofrespondentsineachweightedgcgroup.ThecomputedP-va1.ucwas0.5184.meaningthatwecou1.dnotrejectthenu1.1.hypothesis.5.2 RESPONSEDROP-OFFForourmain(and1.argest)surveyrnwithfourquestions,thedr(>-<)fratesarchowninthefo1.1.owing“beatmap"chur1.Themoresaturatedtheco1.or,the1.argerthepercentagedropof:1.argest%Drop-OffsOccurredEar1.ierRespondentsQuestion1%Qustion2%IQMStionSHQUwtion4%Age157749rze»-24%31.3%36.3%Question113779743.4K21.4K27.1%Question21193119.2%1.S.HQuestion3K»299-7.2%Question4100467f11The1.argestdrop-ofstendedtooccurear1.ierinthesurvey.Thatis.the1.acMd>p-ofsoccurrcdafteraskingtherespondentforhisorherageorasking(herespondentfbrhisorherresponse(oqucM>on5.3 QUESTION1Ofthefoursureyquestions,themoststriking*resu1.tsofthethreesurveyqueMfionswerethosefromQuestion1:fc4WouIcIyouconsiderpurchasingane1.ectricvehic1.eoverucomparab1.ypricedgas-poweredvehic1.e?”VisitorstoDTOwhorespondedtooursurveyoverwhe1.ming1.ysaidn<».Respondentsina1.1.agegroupsrejectede1.ectricvehic1.esbyaboutatwo(o-oncmargin.Acrossa1.1.agegroups,theresu1.twas30.6%Yes.69.4%Nowithamarginoferrorofon1.y+0.1%(becauseofthevery1.argesamp1.esize).Thefo1.1.owingcharti1.1.ustratesthisresu1.t.MXgDrNfgWghAutomotiveRevo1.utionRespondentsSaid"NO!toE1.ectricCars80%70%60%SO%40%30%20%