英文【dentsu电通】2035年消费者愿景报告-从洞察转向远见的时代word版.docx

CONSUMERVISION2035TheEraoftheInsighttoForesightPivotAboutthisstudyAtdentsu,wearedriventoinnovateThroughinnovation,weensuretheimpactourclientsneedtodrivegrowthintheirbusiness,whilealsogeneratingapositiveeffectontheindustry,society,andtheworld.TohelpaccomplishingthisWecreatedthedentsuConsumerVisionresearchplatform,thatlooksintothefutureoftechnology,culture,consumersandbrandstoprovidemarketerswithaviewintoupcomingshiftsthatwillreshapethebusinesslandscape.Thefirsteditionofthisplatform,TheAgeofInclusiveIntelligence,wasa2021studythatlookedathowemergingconsumerexpectations,aswellassocietalandtechnologicaldevelopments,wereshapinganewlandscapethatbrandsneededtoprepareforonthewayto2030.ThestudyprovedtobeapowerfulcompassthatourexpertsandclientsleveragedtomapimplicationsinvariousindustrySeCtOrSandtothinkaboutplannedinitiativesfromadifferentpointofview.Infact,severalofthetrendsanduse-casesoutlinedinTheAgeofInclusiveIntelligencecametolifeearlierthanexpected:forinstance,wespeculatedthatWemaysee,before2030,thefirstbrain-computerchipimplantandinJanuary2024Neuralinkannouncedhumantrialstothateffecthavebegun.1Characterizedbyanaccelerationintechnologicaldevelopmentsetinmotionbythepandemiclockdowns,theearly2020soutpacedsomeofourwildestpredictionsTokeepourfingersonthepulseofafastmovingfuture,wearenowpushingforwardtheperspectiveofourConsumerVisionresearchplatformto2035toonceagainunderstandhowevolvingconsumerexpectationshiftsincultureandsocietyandnewhorizonsopenedbytechnologydevelopmentwillshapethefuturemandatesofbrandsAsweembarkedonthiswork,weknewlifein2035wouldlookdifferentfromtheworldweliveintoday.WiththesupportofForesightFactory,aleadingconsumertrendsagency,weanalyzeddatafromasurveyof30,OOOconsumersin27differentcountriestounderstandexpectedshiftsinconsumerattitudes,values,andbehaviorsWealsospokewith20expertsandfuturiststounderstandwhattheyseeasthemostlikelydisruptionsandinnovationsintheirfields.Comingoutofthisresearch,weidentifiedthefourforcesthatwillreshapetechnology,cultureiconsumers,andbrands-theareasoffocusofourongoingstudy-overthecourseofthenext10+yearsEachforceisdrivenby3trendsthatpointtofundamentallynewwaysbrandsandmarketersneedtoengageConSUmerSwhichwevalidatedleveragingourglobaldentsuConsumerNavigatorintelligenceplatform.Theexpertswespoketospecializedinawiderangeoftopicsfromsustainabilitytoglobalpoliticsandeconomics,fromAfrofuturismtofashionandfromarttosafeIdesign.TheycanvastheglobefromJapantoSouthAfricatotheUnitedStates.WhenwetalkaboutInsighttoForesighf,wetalkaboutafundamentalshiftthatdictateshowinthe203Ositwillnolongerbeenoughtounderstandandrespondtothemoment,butinsteadtherewillbeamandatetogetaheadofthatunderstandingandactpre-emptively.Thisappliestoallcoreareasoffocusinourstudy.Aswelooktothefutureoftechnology,astrategyguidedbyforesightwillensurehumanreasoningandprogressprevailsasIcapabilitiesgetincreasinglyadoptedswelooktothe：fwewillneedtoshiftfromsimplyreactingtochange,topredictingwhichsolutionswillcreatenew,untappedpositivechangetosurviveasabusiness,asocietyandaglobalcivilizationinanerawhereWd11faceunprecedentedconstraintsAswelooktotheiilur-consmeisweseethatthewayconsumersbuyandinteractwithbrandswillbemoredependentonemotionsandttinthemoment,states,yetconsumerswillpre-determinethespectrumofexperiencestheyareexposedtointhosemomentsviagreaterdataagency.Aswelooktothe,pivotingfrominsighttoforesightwillenablethemtoanticipateanddeliveronpredictedemotionalstatesofConSUmerSanewrequirementtothriveasabusinessby2035.Eachofthesefourforcesissupportedbythreeunderlyingtrends.Tohelpthereadernavigatethisnarrative,hereisabreakdownofthejourneyahead.1.efsdivein!nc*uOurExpertsSariAzoutInternetcuration,journalismFounder;Startupy.worldMargueriteCoetzeeSouthAfricancultureAnthropologist,Futurist,ArtistRussellStevensMedia,technologydemocracyHeadofPrograms,MITCenterforConstructiveCommunicationFranklineOzekhoneAfrofuturisnvpopcultureVPMnrketingtVendeaseAfricaZoeSeamanInnovation,entertainmentFounder;BodaciousClaudineFryGlobalpolitics&riskPartner,ControlRisksRubyThOIotUED,Design.CyberethnographyAdjunctP,ofessorlNYUMelissHMorenoSustainability,smarturbanise,lawAssociate,Kirkland&EllisDomHeinrichAIdesign&safety,innovationExecutiveIDesignDirector,T1.GGOxfordEconomicsGlobaleconomicsCleoValentineArchitecturalNeuroimnunologyPhDCandidate,UofCambridgeGeraldineWharryForesight,culturaltheoryFounder,TrendAtelierNickBlundenDigitaltransferaationtmarketingPresident,TheBusinessofFashionRandiKronthal-SaccoSustainablebusinessSeniorScholanNYUSternSohailInayatullahfPhDForesight,strategyChairinFuturesStudies.UNESCOCindyNoirPersonalDevelop-aentSpeakerandContentCreatorKoratoSasamotoStrategy,MarketingManagingPartner.DentsuVenturesYi-1.ingIJuChineseculture&technologyEditorRestoftheWorld,Writer,NYT,NewYorkenWIREDRichardBenjanineAIethics&socialimpactChiefResponsibleAIOfficer,TelefonicaExecutiveSummaryTenyearsfromnow,technologyurillcompletelyenvelopourexperienceofrealityasweincreasinglydelegatemoreaspectsofourday-to-dayto1.Atthesametime,constraintsbroughtupbyclimatechangewillforceustore-examineaspectsofourculturewehavetakenforgrantedsconsumerwewillreacttothesetensionsbyleaningfurtherintoourmoodstatesandexpectbrandstousepredictivecapabilitiestoanticipatehowweIexpecttobemetbythem.illneedto,o-forcesbrandshenextdecade:layingthefoundationnowtoyes,developingandadoptingIitiesandanticipatorybehaviorseandgrowinthisneweraunTAceedinthe2吁Os,brandswillneedtopivotchttoforcjghtandpresentconsumerswithsolutionsthatwilldictatenot眇总abrandbutalsoifabrandinanAI-filteredandculturally.即TheFutureofTechnology:DigitalDelegationWeseeafuturewhereconsumersfeelincreasinglycomfortablewithlettingtechnology-andSpecificallyAIassistants-takeoverasignificantshareofactivitiesinvariousaspectsoftheirlivesFollowingthereleaseofChatGPTinNovember2022,2theavailabilityofcustomer-facinggenerativeAIapplicationsinthelast12monthshasexpandedCOnSUnIer6willingnesstodelegatetotechnologyagreaternumberoftasksandaspectsoftheirdailylives49%ofrespondentsinourglobalstudysaidthat,by2035,thejfdliketohaveanAI'clondofthemselvestakecareofshoppinadmin,andcommunicationtasksontheirbehalf3ThisWillleadtoanewbusinesscontextwhere,increasingly,brandsaresellingtoMgatekeeperratherthantheirhumancounterpartsandmachinesplotwitheachothertoenableavastnumberoftransactionsthatwilloccurwithoutourdirectintervention.Inthisnewworld,technologywillalsobecomemoreseamlesslyembeddedinourexperienceofreality;asitwilloftenoverlayinformationontothephysicalrealityweinteractwith,asopposedtoprojectinformationonscreensthatdistractusfromitAIwillalsorevolutionizehumandabilitytoviscerallyaccessandexperienceculturesandrealmsbeyondtheirown,transforminghowwecommunicatewitheachOtheuunderstandandinteractwithanimalsandthenaturalworldandconceiveofcompanionshipwithdigitalcounterpartsTheFutureofCulture:NewPowerParadigmsWhiletechnologywillfacilitateourlivesinmanyWayMweseeafuturewhereaseriesofforcesbeyondourcontrol-fromclimatetotrendsinpopulationgrowth-willleadustore-examineourculture,re-addressfundamentaiassumptionsthatcurrentlyinformourday-to-dayandinspirebrandstorethinkhowtheygoaboutproductionandservingconsumers.Forinstancyi£sestimatedthatby2030,therewillbea2%lossinworkinghoursduetoextremeclimeatethatwillimpacttheglobaleconomyby24trillionU.&dollars.l4in5respondentsinourglobalstudysaidthatby2035,theyexpecttochangeseveraldailyactivities,doingthingslikegardeningintheevening,becauseoftheeffectsofclimatechange,sThespace-andtime-shiftinginourday-to-daywillhaveanimpactonindustrieslikehospitality,travel,retail,andhealthcare.By2035,therewillbemoreyoungAfncansenteringtheworkforceeachyearthantherestoftheworldcombined.6Theseshiftsintheglobalpopulationwillcreateanewcontextforbrands,creatinganeedtobemoreinvolvedinsupportinggrowthinemergingmarketswherethepublicinfrastructureislessdeveloped.tthesametime,weseeacontinuationofPeoPIdsdisenfranchisementfromtraditionalinstitutionsandcentralizedpowerstructuresinfavorofmoreImunity-basedinitativesInadditiontotransformingindustriesandhowwethinkaboutinstitutiontheseshiftswillrevolutionizeculture,creatinganewmakeupofthemainstreamthatwillbeprofoundlymorediverseandcommunitycentriccomparedtotoday.FurthermoreinresponsetoentertainmentstudiosdoublingdownonAI,7in10globalconsumerswillseekuser-generatedcontenttosupportandconnectwithhumancreatirit¾7Inthiscontext,brandswillneedtoadoptanewmindsetwhenitcomestothemediaandentertainmentpartnershipsthattheyfostertogarnerculturalrelevance；TheFutureofConsumers:Consumer(Ec)CentricityWeseeafuturewhereconsumerswillleanfurtherintotheirmoodstatesandpassionswhenengagingactively-asopposedtodelegatingtoAI-withthebrandsthatareabletogarnertheirattention,asawaytoreacttobothtechnologyscocooningeffectsontheirlivesandtotheconstraintsthephysicalrealitythey11liveinwillplaceuponthem.Alreadytoday,7in10respondentsinourglobalstudysaidthatasignificantshareoftheirbuyingdecisionsisinfluencedbythemoodthe、；reinatthetimeofPUrChaSagCOnSUnlereincreasingeccentricitywillfirstandforemostmanifestinapivotfromonlythinkingaboutdataintermsofprivacytothinkingofdataintermsofagency:consumersmanifesttheirpersonalitiesonlineandwillincreasinglythinkofthedatatrailwillleaveastheirownIPthattheywanttofurthercurat¾customizeandpotentiallymonetizeintheirinteractionswithotherconsumers,WithAI,andwithbrandsalikeConsumerswillalsoseektoYe-SenSitiZdthemselvesinhumaninteractionsthathavebeenincreasinglymediatedbytechnology.Theywillstrivetoexperienceanexpandingrangeofemotionsandmanifestthisdesireintheintereststheywillexpectbrandstocaterto:catharticexperiences,desiresthatfeelIcrbidden*andanalogownershipTheFutureofBrands:RiseofPerceptiveBrandsWeseeafutureWhereiinordertodifferentiateandgrow,brandswillneedtobecomemoreperceptive.Themoreconsumerswillleanintomoodstates,themorebrandswillneedtodevelopanticipatorybehaviorstostandout.TheseCapabiEtieswillbeneededtobothnavigatethefiltersputinplacebyAIgatekeepersandofferexperiencesthatfeelserendipitoustotheenduser:8O%ofglobalconsumersinourstudysaidthatthebestwayforabrandtostandoutandearntheirloyaltyisitsabilitytosurpriseanddelighttheminunexpectedways.9CapturingsignalsfromAIagentsthatmanifestpreferencesonbehalfofconsumerdevelopingbrandpersonalitiestofuelthenextgenerationofconversationalengagemenanddevelopingcapabilitiestodecodehumanemotionswillbekeywaysforbrandstopivotfrominsighttoforesighgoingfromsimplyreactingtoconsumerbehaviorstoknowingthembeforetheyknowthemselves.Asanticipationbecomesanexpectationonourjourneytoward2035,brandsandmarketerswillneedtobecomemoreperceptive,developinginnovativesolutionstoenhancetheirunderstandingofconsumerwantsandreconcilingthemwithbusinessneeds,leveragingtheiruniquepositionattheintersectionofboththeinwardandoutwardperspectivesforthebrand.FORCE1THEFUTUREOFTECHNO1.OGYDigita1DeIegationTechnologyhasbecomemoreintertwinedwithconsumersandbrandsinthelastdecadesandwillcontinuetodoso.2010sTechnologyenabledconnectivity,allowingbusinessesbrands,andconsumerstoaccessinstantinspiration.2020sTechnologyenhanceshumanabilities(ourbrainsandbodies)tooptimizehealth,productifityandproblemsolving.2030sTechnologyenvelopsCOnSUmerSrealitiesandexpandstheirunderstandingoftheworldasAIpervadesourlivesOnthepathto2035,humanswillincreasinglyandwillinglyoutsourcetheirautonomytomachinesinexchangeforapersonalizedandcocoonedenvironment707ofglobalconsumerssurveyedinourstudybelieveAIwillbeusedinmostaspectsofourlives10yearsfromnow.H)saythatby2035theydliketohaveanIcloneofthemseIvestotakecareofshopping,admin,andcommtasksforthem,n3keytrendswillshapethislandscape:M2MRevolutionAsconsumersoutsourcetaskstoAI,theyaretrustinginmachine-onlysupportnetworks.CustomizedRealityConsumersareoptingfortechnologythatisorganicallyembeddedintoeverydaylifeNon-humanAlliancesConsumerempathyexpandstoincludethenaturalworldandAi-aidedentities.M2MRevolutionInthenextdecade,technologywillevolvefromproductifityboostertofulladministratorPeopleandcorporationsalikewillhandoverthereinstomachines,outsourcingtasksroleandevenfullecosystems.Machineswillconferwithoneanotherwithouthumaninput,makingdecisionsbasedoninformationlibrariesoncecreatedandoverseenbyhumansAsdatafromthesemachine-to-machine(M2M)relationshipsgrows,thisnewcontextwillcreatedemandforasuperiortechnologyinfrastructurecapableofdeliveringgreaterspeedsandgreatercomputingcapacities.BusinesssuccesswillbepredicatedonComPanieWabilitytograduatetothesenewstandards.HumanOutsourcetoDigitalArtificialintelligenceisnolongeraplotofsciencefictionentertainmentKsapartofthemainstreamandisalreadypartofeverydaylifeformanyconsumers-eveniftheyarerftactivelyawareofitConsumershavegrownincreasinglymorecomfortablewithautomationandrelyingonalgorithms,andifsnolongerastretchtoexpectthatverysoon,mostpeoplewillbeoutsourcinganumberofdailytaskstoA1.79%ofrespondentsinourglobalstudywouldliketohaveanAIassistanttoschedulemeetingsintheirworkandpersonallivesby2035.ThisshareisevenmoresignificantincountrieslikeIndiaandChina12EasingadminiStrativetasksorchoresisjustthetipoftheicebergintermsofhowhumanscanoutsourceactivitiestoA1.Consider;forinstance,ChatGPTbeingusedtosuggesttraveldestinations,whichthenevolvestoAIthatplansthewholetripitinerary,andthenbecomesAIthatautomaticallyinterfaceswithotherAIstopurchasetheairplaneticketsandmakethehotelreservationforyouAsAIbecomemoreestablishedandtrusted,outsourcingtasksWiIIlookmorelikeoutsourcingentireles.Already,arobotCEOpresidesoveramulti-million-dollarcompanyPolish-basedrumproducerDictadorappointedanAIentitynamedMika,createdbyHansonRobotics13ManywantanAIassistanttoschedulepersonalandworkmeetingsby2035.Q193%GlobalIndiaChinaM2MColleaguesAscomfortwithrelyingonAlgrows,theresponsibilitiesdelegatedtoAIWillbecomemoresignificant,eventuallycuttingoutthehumanmiddlemancompletelyHumanswillallowmachinestoplotwitheachother;Indefatigablycollaboratingandautomatingtheworld:thetruerealizationoftheso-calledInternetofThingd.3in4globalconsumerssurveyedinourstudysaidthattheyexpectby2035theirappliances,devices,andvehicleswillre-orderpartsandscheduleserviceappointmentsindependentlyIIlnthesecircumstances,artificialintelligencewillbeviewednotascompetitionforyourjobbutasacolleagueworkingalongsideyou,producingresultsjustasyouareRFPGenie,developedbyTwilliousingGPT-4,isagreatexampleofhowthebusinessworldisstartingtoleanintotheoptimizationopportunitiesopenedupbytheprospectofmachinesplottingwitheachother;Thetoolautomatesthetaskoffillingoutrequestforproposal(RFP)form