【旅游文旅报告】MorganStanley-AsiaInternet亚洲互联网行业AI助力旅行业转型….docx

ASIAPACIFICINSIGHTMORGANSTAN1.irASIA1.IMITH>÷股票分析怖AtoxPoonmorpimtifil«MORGANSTAN1.EYINDIACOMPANYPRIVATEUMITED*GauravRateria股褰分析舒Gaunkv.Rc«riiimotxanujini«yxom÷9l226II82237MORGANSTAN1.EY&CO.I1.CBrianNowakzCFA股累分析加BrtnI21276l3365MORGANSTAN1.EY&CO.MEIlNATIONA1.PIC*JamieRollo股震分析师Jamie.com÷4420742S328MORGANSTAN1.EY&CO.1.1.CStephenWGrambling眼泉分析师SSphCn.GramHlngmo®MunlCMORGANSTAN1.三YASIAIIMITHH徐显达股缪分析师范俏蕾班震分析部QtanIe1.Fan11xxmsGinleyx<xnMORGANSTAN1.EYTAIWANUMImX施晓娟股察分析的Sharon.SWi(morjm«3riMORGANSTAN1.EYASIA1.IMITED*林陈悦亚股察分析价1.ydd1.in(3)11oqinaney)c<xn费怡凡用兄助理Drk.Fmor2aftanIeyxofn余凯供股暮分析师Gary.Yu张颖用完助理DeviIU.H.Zanx®mcr2*nunlyxomI21276.IOIO÷8S22239-12278522239-I75.88622730-28658522239-15728S22848*71198522848-69188S22848.7365MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeaware由atthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganSunleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSectionJocatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.fl三y24AsiaInternet亚洲互联网行业Al助力旅行业转型××我们认为Al是旅行业转型的技术支点Ii包括中国的携程旅行和印度的MakeMyTriP在内的OTA龙头，得益于分散的旅行服务供应格局和其拥有的优质旅行数据洞察，有望成为确定性赢家b我们相信Al是有望彻底改变旅行科技行业的主要发展趋势之一b我们想象在未来的AI时代，旅行规划J推荐J预订和客户服务将变得更加高效无缝和个性化，交互水平也将不断提高b但是，这些益处的落实并不是立竿见影的，实现技术突破以推动用户行为改变仍需要时间h我们认为中国和印度的OTA龙头携程旅行（TeOMQ）和MakeMyTriP（MMYTQ）有望成为Al时代的确定性血家：原因在于：1）上游供应分散，中国和印度的品牌酒店渗透率分别为40%和6%,而美国则超过70%；2）酒店线上渗透率较低，中国和印度的酒店线上渗透率分别低于40%和25%,而美国和欧洲则超过60%；3）在中国和印度，旅游垂直用户流量J付费转化和一站式旅行产品在Oa平台上更为集中，而在发达市场，搜索引擎在在线旅行攻略研究渠道中相对更占优势；4）O以在旅行专用大模型方面（携程旅行的携程问道）具有先发优势hMakeMyTriP正在通过微软采用生成式Al,通过引入印度本地语言的语音辅助预订功能，提高服务效率，管理客户评论并提升行程个性化程度h因此，我们认为来自互联网平台/超级应用（百度阿里巴巴腾讯）内容平台（如短视频）和软件/旅行解决方案平台（科大讯飞J石基信息）的扰动风险较低b值得商榷/受到质疑的公司是石基信息在AI时代，它相对于OTA的优势正在减弱b从长远来看，旅彳J服务供应商（酒店航空公司）可以采用AI助手/大模型供应商，或在旅行产业链的特定领域开发自一的Al模型和技术能力Ii在Al乐观假设情境中,我们看到了通过精准推荐提高旅行渗透率/钱包份额的潜力：中国和印度的旅行渗透率仍远低于发达国家b我们发现在中国，内容平台（如短视频音乐）和闭环交易平台（如电商）上高达30%的消费/购买由精准推荐引流而来Ii印度的人均GDP相比中国落后17年，旅游市场落后13年，布线旅行中的关键细分赛道的渗透率落后7-8年，这表明印度还有更大的加速增长空间，MakeMyTWP将从中受益hAl有望对美国和欧洲的OTA和酒店品牌产生不同的影响：我们的美国互联网分析师BrianNOWak认为，超大市值科技公司（尤其是谷歌）和技术先行的OTA（有投资）处主要受益者k但是，OTA对谷歌付费流量的依赖为OTA带来了Al“引流”的风险和机遇G艮告22023”7月20日）U我们的美国住宿业分析师StePhenGrambling认为，如果能够利用忠诚度和独特的客户数据，酒店品牌将迎来上行空间（报告2023年8月18口）UThistranslatedreportismadeavailableforconvenienceonlyandisexcerptedfromtheoriginalresearchreportpublishedinEnglish.Intheeventofanydiscrepancybetweenthetranslationandtheoriginalresearchreport,thecontentintheoriginalresearchreportwillprevail.Theoriginalresearchreportcanbefoundhere:AsiaInternet:GeneratingYourAlItinerary.（30Jan2024）.本翻译报告仅供参考之便，摘自以英文发表的原版研究报告b如果翻译与原版研ASIAPACIFICINSIGHT究报告有任何不一致之处，以原版研究报告中的内容为准b原版研究报告可在此处查看：AsiaInternet:GeneratingYourAlItinerary.(30Jan2024)PraveenKChoudhary0票分析体PfaVleeCChOUdhaFySmcrginManIeyMORGANSTAN1.EY&CO.1.1.CJulianHerrera研究助即jdUn.Hcrrcramorg9mcanteyxomMattBombasseiWFMawBo<Tibassc»MatthewAmegadzietffBMJaAJM2dza»moBMUUlnleycomMOAGANSTAN1.EY&CO.IbHWlATIONA1.R.C*JamesSHarden研究财即JameS.Harden+8522M&5O68*1212761-1784*1212761-4773442076770986MORGANSTAN1.EYNDlACOMPANYPRIVATEUNITED*SakshiRanaW8pSMohiR*nAmorimctnteyxom*91226118-1002MorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2024InstitutionalInvestorAirAsiaResearchTeamSurvey.Requestyourballothere.中文版研究报告R同"邂I主要图表ExhibitI:Al助手有望提高旅行浏览/搜索/预订的交互水平和效率MobileEraAlEra(TransitionStage)AlEra(1.aterStage)负料来源：摩根士用H研究lExhibit2:亚洲与美国的主要区别在于供应的分散格局HotelBrandPenetrationHotelOnlinePenetrationChina20%India10%UnrtedStates70%+ChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEvolvinglandscapebetweenOTA,mega-tech(search),hotelsOlAExhibit3:中国和印度旅行相关股票的Al定位I赋能者采用者受扰动者受保护者未知者IOTA（携程旅行JMakeMyTrip）OTA-同程旅行酒店软件石基信息酒店-华住酒店-首旅酒店J锦江酒店互联网平台-百度J腾讯J阿里巴航空公司巴J美团交通中国航信旅行解决方案-科大讯K资料来源：摩根士丹科研允凰中国和印度如何从Al时代获益2摘要AI时代的中国和印度旅行业展望中国印度新商机中国旅行业的潜在目标市场可以通过发掘更多的旅行需求（尤其是休闲旅行），以比过去更快的速度扩展和数字化II2019年，中国人口平均每人出游4次，低于美国等发达国家的人均67次Il在中国，超过60%的酒店GMV仍通过线下渠道/中介机构预订，而在美国和欧洲，这一比例低于40%b印度主要旅行细分市场的线上渗透率已从2019年的31%提高到2023年的37%,在AI的楮助下还将进一步提升b印度的国内人均旅游就为1.6人次，落后中国13年h与中国相比，印度的出境航空旅客人数也相当少，但随着人均收入的增加，印度的出境渗透率在2022年度已增至2.2%（中国仅为2%）,这为印度提供了进一步的增长空间b效率更无缝J更有效的旅行浏览J攻略研究J推荐J预订和行程规划h增进对客户和产品的了解b更有效地获取和转化用户卜奥布效的Al聊天机器人处理客户问询和预订变更b通过个性化旅行路线和以往旅行记录，增强旅行前的用户体验U简化预订流程，自动更新表单J自动应用优惠券等b高效的聊天机器人可在旅行前J旅行中和旅行后提供帮助，解答用户婕问，包括提供实时导航基于偏好/位置的建议等h外部生产力提高针对旅行需求;取消预测的准确性，从而提高定价和补贴的合理性/仃效性b更好地预测动态需求，从而提供更好的动态定价工具h内容创作更快更有针对性地生成广告内容，并通过Al驱动的3D旅行工具提供旅行预览，这将改善用户体验，使用户的旅行规划更轻松b更精准地锁定不同客户群：1）通过精心策划的平台获取企业预订，并增加在三线城市的推广：2）总结用户评论部分：以及3）通过所Tr设施的综合视觉效果，改善高端用户的体验U赋能者/制胜者携程旅行（超配）：中国GMV最大的OTA,提供最全面的旅行产品和服务，包括国际/出境游，并拥有最具规模且更优质的旅行数据洞察bMakeMyTrip（超配）：印度OTA市场龙头，拥有多样化的产品，必于技术积累大力开展产品创新，对AI开展投资，并有着强劲的资产负债表，有潜力成为Al领域的赢家b值得商榷者/受质疑者石基信息（低配）：中国主要的酒店PMS和连接系统供应商b不适用Exhibit4:中国和印度旅彳j相关主要股票估值Ticker1/30/24PriceGirrent1.ocMktcapUS$mnEVUS$mnEVEBITDAP/ECAGR2023-2524YTDPerf%2024E×2025E×2024E×2025EXRevenue%EB11,DA%Netprofit%ChinaOTATTC0M.037.126,11919,1078.16.41259.720%27%24%3%TongchengTravel0780.HK16.54z7683,8817.76.612.710.619%1622%14%Meituan3690.HK67353,78342,4358.26.114.410.318%41%33%-18%ChinaHotelsHWorIdHTHT.033.611,05310,70511.59.918315.38%16%1S%0%AtourATAT.O17.82,4422,04611.38.218.913.619%31%36%2%GreenTreeGHG.N3.23292855.24.714.112.29%6%5%-14%JinJiang6754.SS28.93,9104,41112.411.240.231.05%3%-3%-3%BTG600258.SS15.22,3602.0809.58.328.121.701%13%-3%ChinaAirlinesAirChina1.imited0753.HK4.714z9904S,8957.46.919.013.212%18%146%-4%ChinaEasternAirlines0670.HK2.110,70337,6647.26.824.413.413%21%NA-8%ChinaSouthernAirlines1O55.HK3.113,17238,6876.36.517.014.611%7%82%-6%SpringAirlines601021.SS55.07,4939,1179.88.117.213.222%23%40%9%ChinaSoftware/TechnologyiFlytekCo1.tdOO223O.SZ40.41X04012,5914S.536.546.238.68%36%NA43%ShijiInfoTech2153.SZ7.72,9402,30343.022.41,319.262.021%66%NA-21%RegionalOTAMakeMyTripMMYT.051.15z4234,93737.827.043.030.718%47%87%9%BookingBKNGQ3,553.9123,994125,91815.614.320.218.68%12%15%0%ExpediaEXPE.0154.021,38020,9226.96.412.511.18%11%14%1%AirbnbABNB.0152.797z73591,45522.419.923.721.811%13%-18%12%DespegarDESP.N9.56243943.93.2108.837.97%24%NA0%资H来源：路IF羚j摩根士丹科研亢理gmImportantnoteregardingexportcontrols.ThisnotereferencesexportcontrolsmaintainedbytheU.S.DepartmentofCommerceBureauOflndustryandSecurity(BIS)and/orentitiesthatmaybesubjecttoexportcontrolrestrictions.Thesecontrolsmayrestrictexport,reexportortransfer(in-country)ofcertainitemscoveredbytheExportAdministrationRegulations(EAR).ThisdisclaimerdoesnotrepresentMorganStanley'sviewastowhetherornottheexport,re-exportortransfer(in-country)ofanyitemsissubjecttoexportcontrolslaws.Investorsaresolelyresponsibleforensuringthattheirinvestmentactivitiesinrelationtoanyentitiesarecarriedoutincompliancewithapplicableexportcontrolslaws.ValuationMethodologyandRisks石基信息(OO2153.SZ)OurpricetargetofRmb9.00isderivedfroma10-yearDCFmodel.WeassumeaWACCof10.6%(4%risk-freerate,6.5%riskpremium,1.1beta,6%costofdebt).WeusethesameWACCforotherChinesesoftwarepeersunderourcoverage.Weassumeaterminalgrowthrateof3%.RiskstoUpside Earlier-than-expectedre-opening Quicker-than-expectedinternationalhotelbrandwinandsystemroll-out Significantmarginpick-upwithstrongsubscriptionrevenuegrowthRiskstoDownside Sluggishrecoveryofmacroeconomy Moremarketsharelossestocompetitors 1.ower-than-expectedSaaSdevelopment 1.owqualityM&AMakeMyTrip1.imited(MMYT.0)Probability-weightedEV/adjustedEBIT.Weightingsof30%bullz60%baseand10%bearreflectingtheimprovingcompetitivepositioningofMakeMyTripinthehotelssegment,withdominantmarketsharelimitingtheriskofirrationalbehavior.WeassigntargetF27eEV/adjustedEBITmultiplesof23-25×acrossscenarios.Wediscountata12.4%WACCtogetvaluationbacktoMarch2025.RiskstoUpside Marketsharegains HighercontributionmarginsfromcontinuedloweradvertisingcostswithoutcompromisingonrevenuegrowthRiskstoDownside Slower-than-e×pectedrecoveryinbudgethotelvolumes NormalizationofATVsinthehotel&packagesegment Increaseincompetitiveintensityintheairsegment Potentialadversedevelopmentincourtcase携程(TC0M.0)Basecase,targetEV/EBITDAmultipleof12.5xfor2024e,lowerthanitshistoricalaverageduring2018-19of17xinviewofthesector'sde-ratingandweakermacroenvironment.RiskstoUpside ReboundinmacroeconomicgrowthandRMB. Recoveryinoutboundtravelgrowth.RiskstoDownside RisingcompetitioninthedomesticmarketfromTongchengTraveIandMeituan. Pandemicuncertainties,macroeconomicslowdown,andFXheadwinds,leadingtolowertraveldemand.DisclosureSectionTheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedoraredisseminatedbyMorganStanleyAsia1.imited(whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontents)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.(Registrationnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)SecuritiesPte1.td(Registrationnumber200008t3tH)fregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch),and/orMorganStanleyTaiwan1.imitedand/orMorganStanley&CoInternationalPlGSeoulBranch,and/orMorganStanleyAustralia1.imited(A.B.N.6700373t576rholderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.2337t2,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscotents)zand/orMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustraliaPty1.td(A.B.N.19009ItS555,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.2t0813zwhichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivate1.imitedhavingCorporateIdentificationNo(CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305zregulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(uSEB,)andholderoflicensesasaResearchAnalyst(SEBIRegistrationNo.INH(XXX)01105);StockBroker(SEBIStockBrokerRegistrationNo.INZOOO2ttt38),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNo.INM000011203)randdepositoryparticipantwithNationalSecuritiesDepository1.imited(SEBIRegistrationNo.IN-DPNSD1.-S67-2021)havingregisteredofficeat18thFloor,Tower2,OneWorldCenter,Plot-8tl,JupiterTextileMillCompound,SenapatiBapatMargr1.owerParetMumbait00013rIndiaTelephoneno.+91-22-61181000;ComplianceOfficerDetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:÷91-22-61181000orEmail:tejarshi.hardasmorgastaley.m;Grievanceofficerdetails:Mr.TejarshiHardasrTel.No.:÷91-22-61181000orEmail:msic-comp4iancewhichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfromrorinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch,andtheiraffiliates(collectively,"MorganStanle/).Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,plea½seetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWForvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2t95;HongKong÷85228t8-5999;1.atinAmerica+171875l-5tU(U.S.);1.ondon+tt(0)20-7t25-8169;Singapore+65683t-6860;Sydney÷61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1S85Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.AnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreportMattBombassei;DanChee;PraveenKChouAary;QianleiFan,CFA;StephenWGrambling;JulianHerrera；1.ydia1.in;BrianNowak,CFA;AlexPoon;GauravRateria;JamleRollo;SharonShlh;GaryYu.GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicyMorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheanalystorstrategist(orahouseholdmember)identifiedbelowownsthefollowingsecurities(orrelatedderivatives):MatthewAmegadzie-RenttheRunway,lnc.(commonorpreferredstock);PraveenKChoudhary-AlibabaGroupHoIding(GDR)rAlnc(commonorpreferredstock),MetaPlatformslnc(commonorpreferredstock),NetEase,Inc(GDR)zRobloxCorporation(commonorpreferredstock);QianleiFanrCFA-PDDHoldingsInc(GDR);AlexPn-PacificBasinShipping(commonorpreferredstock);SakshiRana-TataConsultancyServices(co<nmonorpreferredstock),TechMahindra1.imited(commonorpreferredstock);GauravRateria-1.TIMindtree1.imited(COmmOnorpreferredstock),Wipro1.td.(mmo11orpreferredstock).AsofDecember29,2023,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:Airbnblr,AlibabaGroupHolding,Alphabetl11c.zAIncfApplovinCorp,AtacaddoSA,BaidulBeijingCapitallnt,lAirport,BilibiliInczBookingHoldingsIncrBumbleln,C&AModasS.A.zChewylnCompanhiaBrasileiradeDistribuicaozCriteoSA,DCorp,DoorDashIncreBayInc,ElectronicArtslnEtsyInc,Expedialnc.rFarfetch1.td.,FIGS,lGfGlodonCo.1.td.rGrupoCasasBahiaS.A.fHWorldGroup1.td,HainanMeilanInternationalAirport,HelloGroupIncrInfosys1.imited,IntegralAdScienceHoldi阴Corp.,IQIYIInc,JD.com,Inc,JOYYInJKanzhun1.tdrKEHoldingslnKuaishouTechnology,1.ojasRennerSAr1.yftInc,Magazine1.uizaSA,MakeMyTrip1.imited,MatchGroupInc,MeituanrMeliuzSAzMercadolibreInjMetaPlatformsInc,MingYuanCkHJdGroupHOldi修limited,MondeeHoldingsIncrNatura&CoHOIdlMSArNetEasezlOpendrTechnologieslnPDDHOIdi修IncPelotonInteractive,lnc.rPetCenterCOmerdOePartidpacoesSA,PinterestInc,ReaIReaIl11cRevolveGrouplrrRobloxCorporation,RoverGroupIn。SeMaSDlstribuidoraSA,ShanghaiBaosightSoftwareCo1.td,Shutterstockl