世界银行-微型电网储能：电池部署的现状和预测（英）-2023..docx

Status and Projections of Battery DeploymentAn Energy Storage Partnership ReportEnergyStorageforMiniGridsEnergyStorageforMiniGridsStatusandProjectionsofBatteryDeploymentThisreportoftheEnergyStoragePartnershipispreparedbytheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)withcontributionsfromtheAllianceforRuralElectrification(ARE),RicereasulSistemaEnergetico(RSE),LoughboroughUniversity,andtheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank(IADB).TheEnergyStoragePartnershipisaglobalpartnershipconvenedbytheWorldBankGroupthroughESMAPEnergyStorageProgramtofosterinternationalcooperationtodevelopsustainableenergystoragesolutionsfordevelopingcountries.Formoreinformationvisit:https:/www.esmap.org/the_energy_storage_partnership_espABOUTESMAPTheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isapartnershipbetweentheWorldBankand24DartnerStohelplow-andmiddle-incomeuntriesreducepovertyandboostgrowththroughsustainableenergysolutions.ESMAP,sanalyticalandadvisoryservicesarefullyintegratedwithintheWorldBank'scountryfinancingandpolicydialogueintheenergysector.ThroughtheWorldBankGroup(WBG)1ESMAPworkstoaeleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSUStainabIeDeVeIODmenlGoal7(SDG7)toensureaesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodernenergyforall.IthelpstosesandprogramstoachievetheWBGClimateChanaeACtiOnPlantargets.Learnmoreat:htsWesmaD.OrQ©2023InternationalBankforRenstructionandDevelopmentZTheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433Telephone:;Internet:www.worldbank.oraRightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecausetheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesiffullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,WorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:+1-;e-mail:DUbriahtWOrIdbank.or.Furthermore,theESMAPProgramManagerwouldappreciatereceivingacopyofthepublicationthatusesthispublicationforitssourcesentincareoftheaddressabove,ortoesmadworldbank.org.ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommons3.0IGO)httD：/CreaIiVeCommon$.ora/license$/bv3.0io.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution-EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP).2023.EnergyStorageforMiniGrids:StatusandProjectionsofBatteryDeployment.Washington,DC:WorldBank.Translations-ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.AdaptationsThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.Viewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthor(s)oftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-PartyContent-TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithintheworkanddoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-partyownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Ifyouwishtoreuseacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto1tables,figures,orimages.ProductionCreditsProductionEditorHeatherAustinDesignerCircleGraphics,Inc.FrontCover|©IRENABackCover©IRENAAllimagesremainthesolepropertyoftheirsourceandmaynotbeusedforanypurposewithoutwrittenpermissionfromthesource.tableOfcontentsABBREVIATIONSVllACKNOWLEDGMENTSV川KEYFINDINGSIXEXECUTIVESUMMARYX1 BATTERYTECHNOLOGIESINMINIGRIDSACROSSTHEWORLD11.1 TheGlobalStockofMiniGrids21.2 TheGenerationMixofMiniGrids31.3 TheRoleofStorage31.4 TheRoleoftheLevelizedCostofStorageintheTechnologySelectionProcess51.5 UsingMiniGridsforProductiveUses:BeyondBasicAccesstoElectricity51.6 ChallengesFacedbyMiniGridDevelopers52 SIZEOFTHEGLOBALMARKETFORMINIGRIDANDENERGYSTORAGE71 .1NumberofPeoplewithoutAccesstoElectricity722 ProjectedAccessby2030823 RuralMiniGridInstallationsin2021824 4ForecastingGlobalDemandforMiniGridsandBatteryStorageSystems93 SELECTIONOFBATTERYTECHNOLOGY121 .1FactorsInvestorsConsider1232 ComparisonofStorageTechnologies1433 TheCapitalCostofBatteries1534 4TheLevelizedCostofStorage164 FUTURETRENDSINBATTERYSTORAGEFORMINIGRIDAPPLICATION204.1 UsedLithium-IonBatteriesasaStationaryStorageSolution204.2 Iron-AirBatteriesforLong-TermEnergyStorage214.3 SodiumIonBatteries224.4 Hydrogen-PoweredStorage224.5 FlywheelEnergyStorageforMiniGridStabilization225 CASESTUDIES245.1 SolarMiniGridswithLeadAcidBatteries:TheHuskPowerMicrogridsInitiativeinIndiaandNigeria245.2 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosphateBatteries:TheLolweIslands,Uganda255.3 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithium-IonNickelManganeseCobaltBatteries:SanSeth,Bogale1Myanmar265.4 SolarHybridMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosphateBatteries:Dancitagi,Nigeria265.5 SolarMiniGridwithLithiumIronPhosphateBatteries:Makhala1Amperehour,India275.6 SolarMiniGridwithVanadiumRedoxFlowBattery:Maldives285.7 SolarMiniGridwithFlywheelEnergyStorageSystems:ThePhilippines286 RECOMMENDATIONS31REFERENCES33APPENDIX A: TYPESOFENERGYSTORAGE35APPENDIX B: IMPROVINGTHEPERFORMANCEOFLEADACIDBATTERYSTORAGEMINIGRIDS38LISTOFFIGURESANDTABLES1.ISTOFFIGURESANDTABLESFIGURES1.1NumberofInstalledandPlannedMiniGrids,byRegion,2021212NumberofInstalledandPlannedMiniGridsinSelectedCountries,2022213GenerationMixofInstalledandPlannedMiniGrids,201931.4BatteryStorageTransitioninRuralMiniGridsinAsiaandAfrica,2012-21315PrimarySourceofBatteryStoragebySelectedMiniGridDevelopersin2017-2141.6MiniGridBatteryStorageasPercentageofTotalCapacity,byTechnologyType,2012-2141.7SharesofLeadAcidandLithium-IonasSourcesofBatteryStoragebyMiniGridsinSouthandSoutheastAsiaandAfrica,2022418EffectofGridLoadFactoronLevelizedCostofElectricity51 .1NumberofPeopleWithoutAccesstoElectricity,byRegion,2021and2030822 ProjectedAnnualIncreaseinNumberofRuralPeoplewithAccesstoElectricity,byRegion,2021-30823 DistributionofMiniGridCapacity,byRegion,202192.4ProjectedAnnualGlobalDemandforRuralMiniGridintheLow-,Base-,andHigh-CaseScenarios,2021-301025ProjectedGlobalCumulativeCapacityAdditionofNewRuralMiniGrids,2022-30102.6 ProjectedGlobalDemandforBatteriesforRuralMiniGrids,2021-30113.1 EstimatedandProjectedDemandforBatteriesforMiniGrids,byType,2021-30133.3 32CostofSix-HourStorage,byBatteryType,2022-30153.4 1.evelizedCostofStorageofSelectedBatteryTypesatDifferentDurations183.5 ContributionsofCapitalExpense,OperationsandMaintenance,ResidualValue,andElectricityCosttotheLevelizedCostofStorage,byBatteryType183.6 EstimatedandProjectedLevelizedCostofStorageforSix-HourDurationSystem,byBatteryType194.1 ProjectedChangesinBatteryPerformanceBetween2018and2025,byTypeofBattery214.2 HuskMiniGridintheVillageofAkura,inNasawaraState,Nigeria254.3 HybridSolarMiniGridintheLolweIslands,Uganda254.4 IceManufacturingUnitPoweredbyEngie-EquatoriarsSolarMiniGridintheLolweIslands,Uganda264.5 HybridSolarMiniGridinSanSeth1Bogale,Myanmar274.6 SolarHybridMiniGridwithContainerizedEnergyStorageSolutionsInstalledbyPowerGeninDancitagi,Nigeria274.7 SolarMiniGridwithContainerizedBatteryEnergyStorageSysteminMakhala,India284.8 VanadiumRedoxFlowBatteryEnergyStorageSystemattheMalahiniKudaBandosResort,Maldives294.9 KineticEnergyStorageSystemsinthePalawanislands,thePhilippines30TABLES1 .1EstimatedandProjectedMiniGridCapacityperHousehold,byRegion,2021and2030922 BatteryCapacityinSelectedMiniGridProjectsInstalledin2020-211123 RatioofBatteryCapacitytoMiniGridInstalledCapacity111 .1TechnicalParametersofSelectedBatteryTechnologies1432 PughMatrixRankingofStorageTechnologiesinMiniGridApplications1533 DescriptionsandAssumedValuesinLevelizedCostofBatteryStorageCalculations17ABBREVIATIONSCAPEXcapitalexpenditureCSRCorporateSocialResponsibilityDERdistributedenergyresourceEEEngie-EquatorialESPEnergyStoragePartnershipESSenergystoragesystem(s)FESSflywheelenergystoragesystem(s)GWhgigawatthour(s)kgkilogramkVAkilovoltamperekWkilowattkWhkilowatthor(s)kWpkilowattpeakLCOEIevelizedcostofelectricityLCOSIevelizedcostofstorageLFPlithiumferro-phosphateMWhmegawatt(s)NMCnickelmanganesecobaltO&MoperationsandmaintenancePALECOPalawanElectricCooperativePVphotovoltaicSIPCORS.l.PowerCorporationVRFBvanadiumredoxflowbatteryWwattWhwatthourWpwattpeakAllcurrencyisinUnitedStatesdollars(US$,USD),unlessotherwiseindicated.ACKNOWLEDGMENTShisreportwaspreparedbytheWorldBank'sEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)andCustomizedEnergySolutions,andundertheauspicesoftheWorkingGroupFiveoftheEnergyStoragePartnershipwithtechnicalcontributionsandreviewsbyJonExel(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB),ChrisGreacen(Consultant,WB),andAlfredoVillavicencio(Consultant,WB).GabrielaElizondoAzuela(PracticeManager),ChandraGovindarajalu(LeadEnergySpecialist),JulietPumpuni(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB)1andClemenciaTorresdeMastle(SeniorEnergySpecialist,WB)providedinvaluablecontributionsandoverallguidance.SpecialthankstoHuskPowerSystems,EngieEnergyAccess,PowerGen,Amperehour,andAmberKineticsforprovidinginformationforthecasestudies;andtothefollowingEnergyStoragePartnershippartners-JensJaeger(ARE),LucianoMartini(RSE)1EdBrown(LoughboroughUniversity),andEdwinMalagon(IADB)whoparticipatedinthepeerreviewprocess.KEYFINDINGSThisreportspecificallyfocusesonbatteryenergystorageindecentralizedoffgridminigridslocatedinremoteareas.Itprovidesanoverviewofbatterytechnologiesusedinminigridsglobally,demandforecastsforvariousbatterytechnologies,acomparisonofcharacteristicsofdifferentbatteries,anexplorationofcostsandtrendsinbatterytechnologies,casestudies,andrecommendations.Inthehigh-casescenario,itisprojectedthatannualdemandforminigridbatteriesisprojectedtoincreasetoover3,600MWhby2030fromaround180MWhin2020.Inabase-casescenario,annualdemandexceeds2,200MWh,whileinthelowcaseannualdemandisaround1,500MWh.Theselectionofbatterytechnologyformini-gridprojectsisamulti-faceteddecisionbasedonfactorssuchascyclelife,depthofdischarge,typeofloadconnectedtothegrid,energydensity,C-rating,thermalrunaway,maintenance,after-salesservice,hardwarecompatibility,maturity,cost,batterydegradation,operatingconditions,andenvironmentalconcerns.TheIevelizedcostofstorage(LCOS)iscriticalforoptimaldecision-makinginminigriddevelopment.ThoughupfrontcostsoftendominatethetechnologyselectionProCeSS,theLCOSprovidesamorecomprehensiveperspectivebyconsideringthelifetimecostofstoragetechnologies.TheLCOScalculationincorporatesthecapitalexpenditure,operationsandmaintenancecosts,residualvalue,andcostofchargingthebattery.Whileleadacidbatteriescostlesspernameplatecapacity($/kWh),thesuperiorcyclelife,efficiency,andpermissibleroutinedepthofdischargeoflithium-ionbatteriesresultinalowerLCOS.1.ithium-ionbatterieshavegrowninpopularityandaredisplacingleadacidbatteries,thankstoreducedprices,longerlifespan,andminimalmaintenancerequirements.Historically,leadacidbatterieswerethego-tochoiceduetotheirmaturity,availability,andlowupfrontcost.1.ithium-ionpricesareforecastedtodeclineuntil2030.Incontrast,leadacid,amaturetechnology,maynotwitnesssignificantpricedrops.Forecastssuggestthatlithium-ionbatterieswillextendtheirleadasthelowest-costbatterytechnologyforminigridsdroppingfrom2022LCOSof$0.37perkWhto$0.34in2026and$0.32by2030,notwithstandingthelikelihoodthatrawmaterialcostsforlithium-ionbatteriesriseduetodemandfromtheelectricvehicleindustry.Thecostofleadacidbatterieswilldeclineonlyslightly,from$0.55to$0.54perkWhoverthistimeperiod.Inthenearfuture,otherbatterystorageoptionsarepromising,including"second-life"lithium-ionbatteries,sodium-ionbatteries,iron-airbatteries,hydrogen,andflywheelenergystorageThisreportincludescasestudiesofminigridsfromAfricaandAsiathathighlightglobaldeploymentofbatterytechnologiesrangingfromconventionalleadacidtolithium-ion,toVRBFandflywheelstorage.Eachcasestudydescribestheminigrid'srating,energystoragerating,batterychemistry,businessesserved,communitieselectrified,andthewayinwhichtheelectricityisused.Minigridenergystoragerecommendationsinclude:studyingbatteryperformanceinactualoperatingconditions,consideringtotalcostandnotjustupfrontbatterycost,adoptingsafetyandperformancestandards,promotingrecyclingpractices,encouragingtheuseofrepurposedbatterytechnologies,exemptingminigridbatteriesfromimportduties,providingtechnicalskillstraining,andcreatingstandardoperatingprocedurestounderstandbatterytechnologyperformance.EXECUTIVESUMMARYheEnergyStoragePartnership(ESP),establishedbytheWorldBankin2019,aimstodevelopandimplementenergystoragesolutionsfordevelopinguntries.Thesesolutions,coupledwithrenewableenergysources,couldprovideelectricitytoover1billionpeoplewhocurrentlylackreliableaccess.Aminigridisaninterconnectedsystemofdistributedenergyresources(DERs)-generallyincludingrenewableenergyandelectricitystorage-thatoperatesindependently,servicingcustomergroupsofvarioussizes,fromremoteareastourbanlocations.Theseminigridssupportarangeoffacilitiesincludingprimaryhealthcenters,agriculturalactivities,learningcenters,hospitals,airports,andcommercialestablishments.Thisreportspecificallyfocusesonbatteryenergystorageindecentralizedoff-gridminigridslocatedinremoteareas.Itprovidesanoverviewofbatterytechnologiesusedinminigridsglobally,demandforecastsforvariousbatterytechnologies,acomparisonofcharacteristicsofdifferentbatteries,anexplorationofcostsandtrendsinbatterytechnologies,casestudies,andrecommendations.Italsoincludesappendicesthatofferabroadoverviewofmechanical,electrochemical,andthermalstorage,aswellasperformanceoptimizationofleadacidbatteriesinminigrids.Globalelectricityneeds,particularlyinremoteandruralareas,areasignificantchallenge.Asof2020,anestimated740millionpeoplestilllackaccesstoelectricity,577millionofwhomliveinSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA).ThoughSSAhasanelectrificationrateof48%asof2020,ambitiousnationalelectrificationplansincountriessuchasEthiopia,Ghana,Kenya,Nigeria,Rwanda,andSenegalaimtoattainuniversalaccessby2030.Someofthese2030targetshavebeenimpactedbytheCOVID-19pandemic,withmanydevelopingcountrieslikelytoexperiencedelays.Undertheexistingtrajectory,itisexpectedthatabout800millionpeoplewillgainaccesstoelectricitybetween2021and2030,leaving560millionunelectrified.Toachievefullelectrificationby2030,itisnecessarytoprovideelectricitytoaround1.3billionpeople.Growingdeploymentofminigridsarereachingsomeofthisunelectrifiedpopulation,with21,000minigridscurrentlyservingabout48millionpeopleworldwide.Toservehalfabillionpeopleby2030,theworldneedsafleetof217,000minigrids,mostofwhichwillbepredominatelypoweredbysolarelectricitywithbatterybackup.SouthAsiapresentlyleadswiththehighestnumberofinstalled(9,600)andplanned(19,000)minigrids.Afghanistan,India,andMyanmarcompriseabout80%ofm