亚开行-商业开放：马尔代夫如何度过新冠肺炎危机（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告2023.docx

NO.281DECEMBER2023AdbbriefsOpen for Business: How Maldives Overcame the COVID-19 CrisisINTRODUCTIONMaldives is a small island nation in the Indian Ocean. It is one of the most geographically dispersed countries in the world, with 1,190 islands scattered over 90,000 square kilometers of territory. More than 80% of the land area is below I meter above sea level, thus making Maldives extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts (World Bank and ADB 2021). The country is home to 515,122 people, 41 % of whom live in the capital Male (Government of Maldives 2023a).Typical of small island stacest Maldives has a narrow economic base. In the late 1970s, tourism overtook fisheries to become the dominant economic activity. Figure I shows that by 2019, the direct contribution of tourism to the economy was 26.1 %, while the indirect contribution, which includes tourism-related sectors such as transportation and communication and wholesale and retail trade, was just shy of 75%.1 According to the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA), tourism comprises more than 93% of services exports and almost 35% of government tax receipts (Government of Maldives 2023b).The scarcity of land and resources limits the development of other sectors, e.g., agriculture and manufacturing, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports. These structural constraints make the economy vulnerable to external shocks asIn this publication. *'$" refers to United States dollars. "M refers to euroes, and "Rf, refers to Maldives rufiyaa.1 The 75% indirect contribution also comes from tourism supporting and stimulating activities in other sectors such as fisheries, construction, and financial services.ADBKEYPOINTS Maldivianeconomyisheavilydependentontourism.Asaresult,thesignificantreductionintouristarrivalsduetoborderclosuresandtravelrestrictionsduringthecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemiccausedaneconomicrecession. Maldivesestablishedanationaltaskforcewithrepresentativesfromgovernmentagenciesforacoordinatedpolicyresponsetothepandemic.ItimplementedoneofthefastestCOVID-19vaccinationcampaignsintheworldanddevelopedstricthealthandsafetyprotocolsthatallowedthecountrytoreopenitsborderstotourismquickly. Thedigitizationofgovernmentserviceswasakeycomponentofthereprioritizedgovernmentstrategy,withafocusonoptimizationandserviceefficiencythroughaone-stopapproach.Thisledtothelaunchofthe*OneGov*,platformin2023,providingagrowingnumberofgovernmentservices. TheCOVID-19experienceOfMaIdiveshighlightedthecountry,sneedtodiversifyit,seconomytoreducedependenceontourismand,inturn,short-termmacroeconomicvolatility.ISBN978-92-9270-525-1(print)ISBN978-92-9270-526-8(electronic)ISSN2071-7202(print)ISSN2218-2675(electronic)PublicationStockNo.BRF230584-2DOI:http:/dx.doi.org/10.22617BRF230584-2AbdullaAliEconomist(Consultant)SouthAsiaDepartment(SARD)AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)MacrinaMallariEconomist(Consultant)SARDADBElisabettaGentileSeniorEconomistRegionalCooperationandIntegrationUnitSARDADBThiamHeeNgRegionalHead,RegionalCooperationandIntegrationSARDADBFigure1:SectorContributionstoGrossDomesticProduct,2019(%)GDP=grossdomesticproductNote:ThesectorcontributionreferstotheproportionateshareofdifferentsectorstoMaldives'GDPin2019.Tertiarysectorexcludestourism,wholesaleandretailtrade,andtransportationandcommunication.Source:GovernmentofMaldives.2022a.GrossDomesticProduct.Male:MaldivesBureauofSutistics.witnessedduringthe2004IndianOceantsunamiandthe2009financialcrisis,whichcausedsignificantgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contractions.Inbothcases,thequickrecoveryoftourismhelpedtheeconomygetbacktoastronggrowthtrajectory,somuchsothatthecountryachievedupper-middle-incomestatusin2010.1.eadinguptothecoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemic,Maldiveshadexperiencedrapideconomicgrowth,reachingGDPpercapitaof$11.118.5(asof2019)?Annualtourismarrivalspeakedat1.7millionin2019,generating$3.2billionoftravelreceiptsandaccountingfor2.2percentagepointsofthe7.1%GDPgrowthin2019.Thestronggrowthalsoledtoimpressivesocialdevelopment,withlonglifeexpectancyandhighliteracyrate,asreflectedinthe2019HumanDevelopmentIndexscoreof0.755,whichputthecountryinthehighhumandevelopmentcategory(UNDP2019).In2020,duringtheearlystagesofthepandemic,MaldiveswasassessedastheworstaffectedbythepandemicinAsiaandpotentiallyglobally(GovernmentofMaldivesandUNDP2020).Traveldisruptionssuchasborderclosuresandotherhealthmeasurescausedasharpdeclineinrevenuefromtourismandrelatedindustries.Atthesametime,theCOVID-19responseplacedenormouspressureonpublicfinances.Tofillthegap,thegovernmentincreasedborrowing,furtherpushinganalreadyhighexternaldebttolevelsthatthreatenedSustainabilicy(InternationalMonetaryFund2022).Thepandemiccreatedasignificantdeclineinforeignexchangereserves-astourismisthemainsourceofforeigncurrencywhilethebalanceofpaymentsdeteriorated.ThisbriefdiscusseshowtheGovernmentofMaldivescontainedthehealthcrisisandpreventedafull-blownfiscalcrisisbyadoptingamultisectorapproachthatbroughtallthevariousstakeholdersandconcernedsectorstogetherandmanagedto(i)maintainsteadysuppliesofessentialgoods,(ii)implementoneofthefascescCOVID-19vaccinationcampaignsintheworld,(iii)developstricthealthandsafetyprotocolsthatallowedthecountrytoreopenitsborderstotourismquickly,and(iv)provideassistancetoaffectedhouseholdsandbusinessesandimplementstimulusmeasurestoboosttheeconomy.ThebriefalsoshowshowthepandemicbroughtsomeofMaldives'long-standingscruccuralissuestothefore,whichaddressedurgently,willmakethecountrybetterpreparedforthenextcrisis.THEIMPACTOFCOVID-19INMALDIVESMaldivesrecordeditsfirstcaseofCOVID-19on7March2020inatouriscresort.A30-daystateofpublichealthemergencywasdeclaredon12March2020and,2daysafter,anationwideshutdownofallguesthouses,cityhotels,andtouriscexcursionswasannounced,includingtheclosureofgovernmentofficesandschools.On27March2020,thecountry,sborderswereclosed,exceptforspecialflightstorepatriateforeignnationalsandtourists,cargo,andmedicalflights.ThefirstcaseoflocaltransmissioninMalewasconfirmedonI5April2020anda24-hourlockdownintheGreaterMaleRegion(GMR)wassubsequentlydeclared.Bansonnationwidetravelandpublicgatheringswereenforcedfrom16April2020,andthelockdownoftheGMRwasextendedbyanadditionalI4daysascaseskeptincreasing.TheMinistryofHealthreportedthefirstCOVID-19-relateddeathon29April2020.TheHealthProtectionAgency(HPA)reportedthatbytheendofApril2020,caseshadleapedto468andmorethantripledbytheendofMay2020toreach1,801,althoughthenumberofdeathswasstilllowat5. World Bank Group. World Development Indicators Database. https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=MV&view=chart(accessed 3 August 2023).,Government of Maldives. COVID-19 Database. Male: Health Protection Agency (HPA). Internal database (accessed 30 May 2023).ThephasedeasingofCOVID-19containmentmeasuresstartedattheendofMay2020withessentialgovernmentofficesreopeningalthoughwithlimitedhoursandstaff,andrestrictionsontravelandpublicgatheringswereremovedbymid-June2020exceptinGMR.BusinesseswereallowedtooperatewithstricthealthandsafetyguidelinesfromIJuly2020,asoperationsofgovernmentofficesandschoolsgraduallyresumedon5July2020.By15July,MaldivesreopeneditsborderstointernationalvisitorswithoutmandatoryquarantineaslongasanegativeCOVID-19polymerasechainreactiontestresult,conductedwithin96hoursbeforearrivalinMaldives,waspresented(GovernmentofMaldives2021a).COVID-19casesanddeathsremainedlowthroughoutJulydespitetheliftingofmostCOVID-19-relatedrestrictions.However,theborderreopeningandtheresumptionofeconomicactivitiestranslatedintoasurgeinCOVID-19cases,whichpeakedinAugust2020,averaging129dailycasesbeforetheygraduallywentdownfrommid-September2020.Bytheendof2020,theHPArecorded13,763COVID-19cases,with97.2%caserecoveryandjust0.4%casefatalityratios.OnIFebruary2021,thenationalvaccinationcampaignkickedoffinMaldivesasthethreatofnewandmorecontagiousCOVID-19variantsemerged/Thisledthegovernmenttoreimposepandemicrestrictionsincludingcurfewhours,closuresoforlimitedoperatinghoursforcertainbusinesses,andmandatoryuseofmasksoutsidehomes(MaldivesFinancialReview2021).AsecondsurgeofCOVID-19caseswasrecordedinMay2021withoverathousandcasesperday.Inmid-June,ascasessteadilydeclinedandthevaccinationrateinthepopulationincreased,thegovernmentstartedeasingCOVID-19containmentmeasures,exceptforbrieftravelrestrictionsonspecificcountrieswiththeOmicronvariant.AccordingtotheHPA,MaldivesenteredanotherwaveofCOVID-19bymid-January2022whendailycasessurgedabove2,000.ThesituationgraduallyimprovedfromMarch2022,whichpromptedPresidentIbrahimSolihtorevokethestateofpublichealthemergencyon13March(ThePresident'sOffice,RepublicOfMaIdives2022).Consequently,accordingtotheMinistryofTourism,allCOVID-19restrictionswereliftedexceptfortestingofsymptomaticpeopleandisolationand/orquarantineforCOVID-19-positivepeopleandtheircontacts(GovernmentofMaldives2022c).TheaveragenumberofCOVID-19casesperdayremainedlowfor2022despitebrieflyclimbingbetweenJuneandJuly.Table1:MaldivesCOVID-19CrisisTimelineDateEvent3February2020Restrictedentrytoallpassengers,regardlessofnationality-exceptforMaldiviancitizens-whohavetraveledtoortransitedthroughthePeople'sRepublicofChina.7March2020FirstconfirmedpositivecasesofCOVID-19inthecountry(i.e.,twotourists).12March2020StateofPublicHealthEmergencydeclared.14March2020Restrictedtravelfromresortstoallinhabitedislandsandviceversa,andsuspendedcheck-insatallguesthousesandcityhotelsintheGMR.ISMarch2020Establishedtravelrestrictionsforpassengersoriginatingfrom,transitingto,orwithatravelhistoryinBangladesh.France,Germany,Iran,Italy,theRepublicofKorea,andSpain.17March2020EstablishedtravelrestrictionsforpassengersfromMalaysiaandtheUnitedKingdom.Nationwideshutdownofallguesthousesandcityhotels.19March2020Governmentofficesandschoolsandeducationserviceprovidersclosed.Entryofalltouristsarrivingviasafaris,yachts,andotherpassengervesselssuspended.21March2020Allpassengersenteringthecountrysubjectedtomandatoryquarantinefor14days.22March2020Alldine-inservicesofferedbylocalrestaurantsandhotelsintheGMRclosed.23March2020Alltouristexcursionsacrossthecountrybanned.25March2020EmployeesatresortsandSaBriboatswereinstructedtoremainonboardfor14daysafterthelastguestdeparted.27March2020FirstMaldiviantestedpositiveforCOVID-19whileinquarantinefacility.Suspensionofon-arrivalvisaforallpassengersarrivingtoMaldivesbyairandsea.exceptforindividualswithspecialpermissiongrantedbythegovernment.2April2020Three-hourcurfew(5p.m.to8p.m.)intheGMRenforced.ISApriI2020Firstcaseofcommunitytransmissionconfirmedinthecapital,Male.A24-hourlockdownintheGMRannounced.16April2020Banonnationwidetravelandpublicgatheringsordered.17April2020Lockdownextendedforaperiodof14daysascasesincreased.28April2020Thefirstcommunitytransmissionoutsideofthecapital,inanouteratoll,confirmed.29April2020FirstCOVID-19-relateddeath(i.e.,83-year-oldMaldivianwoman).continuedonnextpageTheseincludetheDeltavariantthattheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)classifiedasavariantofconcernon11May112021,whichspreadmoreeasilythanearlierstrainsofthevirusandwasresponsibleformorecasesanddeathsglobally;andOmicron1firstreportedon24November2021toWHO,whichclassifieditasavariantofconcernon26November2021.OmicronhadshownlargenumberofmutationsandcausedadetrimentalchangeinCOVID-19epidemiology(WHO2021).Table1continuedDateEvent2May2020Specialvisasgrantedtocertainparties,suchasresortownersandinvestorsandofficialsfrominternationalinstitutions,totraveltoMaldives.7May2020NationalTaskforceonResilienceandRecoveryestablishedbythePresidenttoplanrecovery.14May2020LockdownextendedintheGMRuntil28May2020.29May2020LockdowneasingmeasuresintroducedintheGMRinphases.31May2020Governmentofficesreopenedforessentialworkwithlimitedhoursandstaff.ISJune2020Nationwiderestrictionsontravelandpublicgatheringslifted,exceptintheGMR.20June2020Governmentannouncedreopeningofborderson15July2020;resortscanresumeoperations.IJuly2020NationalEmergencyOperationCentrephasedout;tasksshiftedtotheMinistryofHealth.Businesses,includingoffices,shops,cafes,andrestaurantsreopenedwhileadheringtohealthandsafetyguidelinesfromtheHealthProtectionAgencyandrelevantauthorities.5July2020Governmentofficesandschoolsforkeystagesreopened.15July2020Stateofpublichealthemergencyextended;bordersreopened:40resortsresumedoperations.5September2020ParliamentpassedthePublicHealthEmergencyAct2020.15October2020TouristguesthousesreopenedexceptforguesthousesandhotelsinGMR.October2020toNovember2020PlanningforvaccinationstartedwithguidancefromtheWorldHealthOrganization.November2020NationalCOVID-19VaccinationSteeringCommitteeformed.7November2020Curfewtimewasreduced;outdoorandcontactsportactivitieswereallowed;workinginofficescouldresume;parksandpublicgroundswereopened;andtravelingtolocalislands,withquarantine,wasallowed.5December2020Stateofpublichealthemergencyextendedfortheninthtime.18December2020CurfewinMale,from12a.m.to4a.m.eliminated.LocalswereabletoresumedailyactivitywhileadjustingtonewguidelinesSUChasuseofmasksinpublic,socialdistancing,andtraveling.IFebruary2021Vaccinationprogramcommenced.2February2021SeveralrestrictivemeasurescameintoforcebecauseofthepossibilityofspreadingofnewlydiscoveredvariantfromtheUnitedKingdominMaldives.Curfewhoursimposed.UseofmaskoutsidehomesinallareasofMaldiveswasmandated.5April2021Administrationofseconddoseofvaccinesbegan.27April2021TouristsarrivingfromIndiawerebannedfromvisitinginhabitedislands.5May2021Witharapidriseincases,authoritiesenforcednewrestrictionstofightagainstpossiblecommunityspreadofanewvariantofCOVID-19.7May2021Torestrictmovement,exerciseClaSSeSwerehalted,andgyms,cinemas,andsalonsweretemporarilyclosed.15May2021ThegovernmentannouncedthesuspensionoftouristvisafortravelersfromSouthAsia.15June2021Curfewhoursreducedfrom4p.m.to8a.m.to4p.m.to4a.m.I6june2021Salonsandbarbersresumedoperationswithlimitedhours.23June2021Governmentallowedgymstoresumeservicestothepublicfrom5a.m.to6p.m.onanappointmentbasisandafterpresentingaserviceplantotheauthorities.IJuIy2021Curfewhoursfurthershortenedfrom8p.m.to4a.m.Individualsallowedtodobusinessuntil8p.m.;allbusinessesopened.Mosqueswerealsoopenedforcongregationalprayers.15July2021VisarestrictionforSouthAsiancountrieslifted.28November2021TravelbansfortouristsfromBotswana,Eswatini,Lesotho,Mozambique,Namibia,SouthAfrica,andZimbabweenforcedoverconcernsonthespreadofOmicronCOVID-19variant5December2021MaldivesconfirmeditsfirstcaseofOmicron.continuedonnextpageTable1continuedDateEvent10January2022MaldivestightenedsafetymeasuresacrosstheGMRbecauseofasurgeinCOVID-19cases.Gatherings,events,andpartieswithmorethan50persons;hostinggatherings,events,andpartiesundertheguidelinessetbytheauthorityweredisallowed.Nightandcitymarkets,sportsactivitiesclosedofftothepublic.24February2022Casesstarteddroppingbelow1,000.13March2022State